US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues.

US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. | 2026-27 interconnection approvals; firm-power contract announcements

Key catalyst: 2026-27 interconnection approvals; firm-power contract announcements

Watch events: PJM capacity auction results; nuclear restart timelines (Three Mile Island, Palisades); interconnection queue metrics

Confirmed via morganstanley.com 'Powering AI' (Feb 27 2026) and PJM capacity-market warnings; FT 'AI Power Crunch' visualization consistent.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (3)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "74 GW demand / 49 GW shortfall",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "context": "Morgan Stanley Research 'Powering AI' outlook (Feb 2026): single-site DC footprint scaling to 1-4 GW, natural gas, nuclear, off-grid solutions racing to close the deficit.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "conv_cues": "sell-side specific GW quantification",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2028,
  "timeframe": "by 2028",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Morgan Stanley Research formally publishes 49 GW power-shortfall forecast for 2028",
      "notes": "HIT - direct anchor; Morgan Stanley Stephen Byrd publicly confirmed the forecast on YouTube and via investor notes.",
      "source": "Morgan Stanley - Powering AI: Markets Race to Invest in AI Energy Solutions",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/morgan-stanley-sees-up-to-20-shortage-of-us-power-for-data-centers-through-2028-4351251",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-15",
      "observed_date": "2025-08-13",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-04-30",
        "from": "2025-08-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Morgan Stanley publishes research note quantifying about 20 percent 49 GW out of 74 GW US data-center power shortfall through 2028"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Hyperscalers commit 1T USD or larger cumulative AI infrastructure capex 2025-2026",
      "source": "Morgan Stanley capex tracking / Goldman Sachs 500B USD plus 2026 estimate",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-ai-companies-may-invest-more-than-500-billion-in-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-16",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2025-12-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "MSFT/META/GOOGL/AMZN cumulative reported AI infrastructure capex 2025+2026 1T USD or larger"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "10 GW or more behind-the-meter natural gas turbine deals announced for data centers",
      "notes": "MS sees natural gas turbines adding 15-20 GW supply fuel cells 5-8 GW nuclear 5-15 GW.",
      "source": "Morgan Stanley energy / Bloom Energy fuel cell / nuclear data center deal tracker",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "source_url": "https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/powering-ai-energy-market-outlook-2026",
      "expected_date": "2027-02-14",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Cumulative announced behind-the-meter natural gas / fuel cell deals reach 10 GW or more for AI data centers"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "FERC / NERC publicly flags grid reliability risk in PJM/ERCOT/MISO from data center loads",
      "source": "FERC / NERC reliability assessments",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Regulator FERC NERC or RTO publishes formal reliability advisory citing data-center load as material grid risk in 2027-2028 window"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: Compute: 1GW operational by Jun
... (truncated)