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236_039predictionEnergyAI-timing

Data centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumers

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
38.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
36

Prediction text

Data centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumers | one can imagine a near future, a very near future where data centers and the hyperscalers and frontier labs behind them are essentially subsidizing to the point of offering for free electricity to consumers that can then consume from the same infrastructure that the hyperscalers are building for their own consumption.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236"
one can imagine a near future, a very near future where data centers and the hyperscalers and frontier labs behind them are essentially subsidizing to the point of offering for free electricity to consumers that can then consume from the same infrastructure that the hyperscalers are building for their own consumption.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 38.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 4 pending
  1. 2026-02-15hitGoogle-Xcel Energy Minnesota deal: 1,900 MW clean energy fully funded by Google including grid upgrades
    How: Hyperscaler-utility partnership where hyperscaler pays for capacity AND grid infrastructure that benefits residential ratepayers
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 78%
  2. 2026-03-05hitHyperscalers sign White House Ratepayer Protection Pledge committing to fund grid infrastructure without raising consumer rates
    How: At least 5 hyperscalers (Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, xAI) sign a public pledge to cover full grid infrastructure costs
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 92%
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFirst public utility tariff approved that explicitly directs hyperscaler-funded grid surplus to subsidize residential bills
    How: State PUC docket approves a hyperscaler-tariff with surplus generation/transmission credited to non-data-center ratepayers
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  4. 2027-01-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFirst hyperscaler announces free or discounted electricity/services bundle for nearby residential consumers
    How: Public announcement by Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, or comparable hyperscaler offering free/subsidized residential electricity in a data-center-host community
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingUS data center electricity share crosses 9% of national demand (EPRI midpoint)
    How: EPRI or EIA annual report shows data center share of US electricity at or above 9% (currently 4-5%)
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 65%
  6. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 39%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z38.5%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 39.5% → 38.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z39.5%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 41.7% → 39.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z41.7%-3.3pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 41.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.450-0.075
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.4500.050-0.044
prereq235_038
David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trialPeter Diamandis
74.0%0.4500.050-0.042
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.4500.050-0.038
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.4500.050-0.031

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.080
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.078
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.066
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.049
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.048

Ticker exposure

36 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

APLDNVDAARMBBAITSMCEVAAISOUNCRWVSITMGTLBGOOGLMETAMRVLMSFTORCLIBMAMZNAVGOBABAAMDSFTBYQCOM

Adverse (6)

ACNCHGGCTSHIBMINFYWNS

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
correlateS_GRID_50GW_202750GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027energy_grid_expansion
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "one can imagine a near future, a very near future where data centers and the hyperscalers and frontier labs behind them are essentially subsidizing to the point of offering for free electricity to consumers that can then consume from the same infrastructure that the hyperscalers are building for their own consumption.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "one can imagine a near future, a very near future where data centers and the hyperscalers and frontier labs behind them are essentially subsidizing to the point of offering for free electricity to consumers that can then consume from the same infrastructure that the hyperscalers are building for their own consumption.",
  "conv_cues": "one can imagine; very near future",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Near future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Google-Xcel Energy Minnesota deal: 1,900 MW clean energy fully funded by Google including grid upgrades",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "source_url": "https://logisticsviewpoints.com/2026/03/05/hyperscalers-sign-white-house-ratepayer-protection-pledge-to-power-ai-data-centers-without-raising-consumer-electricity-costs/",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Hyperscaler-utility partnership where hyperscaler pays for capacity AND grid infrastructure that benefits residential ratepayers"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Hyperscalers sign White House Ratepayer Protection Pledge committing to fund grid infrastructure without raising consumer rates",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "source_url": "https://logisticsviewpoints.com/2026/03/05/hyperscalers-sign-white-house-ratepayer-protection-pledge-to-power-ai-data-centers-without-raising-consumer-electricity-costs/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-05",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-05",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "At least 5 hyperscalers (Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, xAI) sign a public pledge to cover full grid infrastructure costs"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with
... (truncated)