HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion.

HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. | HBM ASP + supply/demand tracker

Key catalyst: HBM ASP + supply/demand tracker

Watch events: HBM spot prices; HBM ASP trajectory; SK Hynix / Samsung / Micron HBM gross-margin expansion.

All three HBM vendors sold out through 2026 as of Q1 2026; 2027 booked to ~80% per trade-press reporting.

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

Beneficiaries (5)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "structural shortage",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "context": "Persistent shortage supports pricing power and ASP growth for SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "cited_by": "Synthesis report",
  "conv_cues": "structural shortage; major bank",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "through 2027",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SK Hynix declares HBM/DRAM/NAND capacity 'sold out' for 2026",
      "source": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/samsung-and-sk-hynix-warn-ai-driven-memory-shortages-could-last-until-2027-and-beyond — Tom's Hardware on Samsung/SK Hynix shortage warnings",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/samsung-and-sk-hynix-warn-ai-driven-memory-shortages-could-last-until-2027-and-beyond",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SK Hynix publicly states full-year 2026 HBM, DRAM and NAND capacity is sold out, on official earnings call"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Samsung memory operating profit hits record on HBM-driven sales",
      "notes": "HIT — Samsung semi op profit = 53.7T won ($36.1B), 94% of total quarterly profit. SK Hynix 37.6T won ($27.8B) op profit.",
      "source": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/samsung-and-sk-hynix-warn-ai-driven-memory-shortages-could-last-until-2027-and-beyond — Samsung 53.7T won ($36.1B) Q1 2026 operating profit",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/samsung-and-sk-hynix-warn-ai-driven-memory-shortages-could-last-until-2027-and-beyond",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Samsung semiconductor division reports Q1 2026 operating profit ≥$30B driven primarily by HBM, exceeding all prior records"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-11",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-19T22:16:06.586585+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Hyperscalers pre-book HBM supply multi-year ahead",
      "source": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/samsung-and-sk-hynix-warn-ai-driven-memory-shortages-could-last-until-2027-and-beyond",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/samsung-and-sk-hynix-warn-ai-driven-memory-shortages-could-last-until-2027-and-beyond",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-17",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Public reports confirm Microsoft/Google/Meta/Amazon have pre-reserved HBM supply through 2027+ via multi-year contracts"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-09-19",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "HBM4 ramp 
... (truncated)