Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up

Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up | as some work has been augmented or replaced, new work shows up, etc. That is my hope as it relates to our society as well.

as some work has been augmented or replaced, new work shows up, etc. That is my hope as it relates to our society as well.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "Explicitly framed as hope",
  "context": "And historically, our society has been able to adjust and as some work has been augmented or replaced, new work shows up, etc. That is my hope as it relates to our society as well.",
  "verbatim": "as some work has been augmented or replaced, new work shows up, etc. That is my hope as it relates to our society as well.",
  "conv_cues": "my hope",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Entry-level white-collar unemployment in 20-30 age cohort stops rising",
      "source": "Goldman: 'unemployment among 20-30 in tech-exposed up ~3pp since start of 2025'",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-will-ai-affect-the-us-labor-market",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-09-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "BLS reports two consecutive quarters where 20-30 cohort tech-occupation unemployment rate is flat or declining vs 2025-2026 trend"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "US unemployment rate stabilizes or declines despite AI rollout",
      "source": "Goldman Sachs 4.5% 2026 unemployment projection; Yale Budget Lab analysis",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/evaluating-impact-ai-labor-market-current-state-affairs",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-12-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "BLS U-3 unemployment rate stable in 4.0-4.7% band or trending lower for 6+ consecutive months despite ongoing AI deployment"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Major reskilling-program scale-up by federal/state governments tied to AI displacement",
      "source": "Yale Budget Lab AI labor-mark
... (truncated)