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236_009predictionMacro/Economyeconomy

Human billionaires will be first movers funding UBI-like regional transfers

Predictor: Andrew Yang · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
50.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2030-12-31
Edges in / out
5 / 0
Tickers exposed
31

Prediction text

Human billionaires will be first movers funding UBI-like regional transfers | I think that human billionaires are going to be the first movers in this direction. Uh, and uh, they're going to center it around where they live.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236"
I think that human billionaires are going to be the first movers in this direction. Uh, and uh, they're going to center it around where they live.

Predictor: Andrew Yang

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0178
excellent
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
0.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Andrew Yang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 50.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 pending
  1. 2027-03-04pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFirst publicly-announced billionaire-funded regional cash-transfer program in their home metro (>=$50M committed, >=10,000 recipients)
    How: Press release from a Forbes-listed billionaire or their foundation announcing a multi-year unconditional cash transfer program targeted at the metro/region they live in, with >=$50M committed and >=10,000 enrolled recipients
    Source: https://hai.stanford.edu/news/radical-proposal-universal-basic-income-offset-job-losses-due-automationconf 55%
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2028-06-30pendingYang/Humanity Forward expands philanthropic UBI footprint past Hudson/Denver pilots into >=5 new cities
    How: Humanity Forward annual report or Andrew Yang public communication confirms active GBI pilots in >=5 new municipalities
    Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/andrew-yang-universal-basic-income-plan-put-to-the-test-with-freedom-dividend-pilot-program/conf 50%
  4. 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingAt least three additional billionaire-backed local UBI/GBI programs announced in same year as the first
    How: News tracker or Stanford Basic Income Lab reports >=3 additional billionaire-funded city/county-level guaranteed income programs >=$25M each
    Source: https://metropolitics.org/From-Universal-Basic-Income-to-Guaranteed-Basic-Income-An-Experiment-for-Cities.htmlconf 45%
  5. 2028-01-06pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  6. 2027-06-01 → 2029-06-30pendingFederal/state legislator cites billionaire-backed regional UBI as model in introduced legislation
    How: US Congressional or state legislative bill introduces UBI/GBI framework that explicitly references at least one named billionaire-funded regional pilot
    Source: https://www.ubicenter.org/yang-nycconf 40%
  7. 2028-11-09pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 50%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z50.0%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 51.6% → 50.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z51.6%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 54.5% → 51.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z54.5%-5.5pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 54.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.600-0.065
killerTK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25.0%0.0500.600-0.038
killerTK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12.0%0.0500.600+0.034
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.600-0.010
killerTK07
Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)
18.0%0.0500.600+0.001

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

31 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

UDMYBBAISRFMSOUNNVDACOURCRCLDOCNAIADUSGTLBZMAMZNGDDYGOOGLIBMMETAMSFTNFLXORCLRDDTSPOTUBER

Adverse (7)

KKRJNKAPOHYGKREXLYXHB

Prerequisites (5)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK07Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)
killerTK10$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.608polymarketBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?37%mentionspending2025-10-24
0.586manifoldWill MrBeast become a billionaire before age 35?97%mentionspending2026-05-18

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-Politician",
  "context": "I think that human billionaires are going to be the first movers in this direction. Uh, and uh, they're going to center it around where they live.",
  "verbatim": "I think that human billionaires are going to be the first movers in this direction. Uh, and uh, they're going to center it around where they live.",
  "conv_cues": "are going to be",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-04",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First publicly-announced billionaire-funded regional cash-transfer program in their home metro (>=$50M committed, >=10,000 recipients)",
      "source": "https://hai.stanford.edu/news/radical-proposal-universal-basic-income-offset-job-losses-due-automation",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Press release from a Forbes-listed billionaire or their foundation announcing a multi-year unconditional cash transfer program targeted at the metro/region they live in, with >=$50M committed and >=10,000 enrolled recipients"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Yang/Humanity Forward expands philanthropic UBI footprint past Hudson/Denver pilots into >=5 new cities",
      "source": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/andrew-yang-universal-basic-income-plan-put-to-the-test-with-freedom-dividend-pilot-program/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "expected_date": "2027-08-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Humanity Forward annual report or Andrew Yang public communication confirms active GBI pilots in >=5 new municipalities"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "At least three additional billionaire-backed local UBI/GBI programs announced in same year as the first",
      "source": "https://metropolitics.org/From-Universal-Basic-Income-to-Guaranteed-Basic-Income-An-Experiment-for-Cities.html",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date": "2028-01-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "News tracker or Stanford Basic Income Lab reports >=3 additional billionaire-funded city/county-level guaranteed income programs >=$25M each"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-01-06",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Federal/state legislator cites billionaire-backed regional UBI as model in introduced legislation",
      "source": "https://www.ubicenter.org/yang-nyc",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2028-06-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-06-30",
        "from": "2027-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_crit
... (truncated)