Human billionaires will be first movers funding UBI-like regional transfers
Predictor: Andrew Yang · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source
Prediction text
Human billionaires will be first movers funding UBI-like regional transfers | I think that human billionaires are going to be the first movers in this direction. Uh, and uh, they're going to center it around where they live.
Verbatim quote
I think that human billionaires are going to be the first movers in this direction. Uh, and uh, they're going to center it around where they live.
Predictor: Andrew Yang
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Andrew Yang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2027-03-04pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFirst publicly-announced billionaire-funded regional cash-transfer program in their home metro (>=$50M committed, >=10,000 recipients)How: Press release from a Forbes-listed billionaire or their foundation announcing a multi-year unconditional cash transfer program targeted at the metro/region they live in, with >=$50M committed and >=10,000 enrolled recipientsSource: https://hai.stanford.edu/news/radical-proposal-universal-basic-income-offset-job-losses-due-automationconf 55%
- 2026-09-01 → 2028-06-30pendingYang/Humanity Forward expands philanthropic UBI footprint past Hudson/Denver pilots into >=5 new citiesHow: Humanity Forward annual report or Andrew Yang public communication confirms active GBI pilots in >=5 new municipalitiesSource: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/andrew-yang-universal-basic-income-plan-put-to-the-test-with-freedom-dividend-pilot-program/conf 50%
- 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingAt least three additional billionaire-backed local UBI/GBI programs announced in same year as the firstHow: News tracker or Stanford Basic Income Lab reports >=3 additional billionaire-funded city/county-level guaranteed income programs >=$25M eachSource: https://metropolitics.org/From-Universal-Basic-Income-to-Guaranteed-Basic-Income-An-Experiment-for-Cities.htmlconf 45%
- 2028-01-06pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2027-06-01 → 2029-06-30pendingFederal/state legislator cites billionaire-backed regional UBI as model in introduced legislationHow: US Congressional or state legislative bill introduces UBI/GBI framework that explicitly references at least one named billionaire-funded regional pilotSource: https://www.ubicenter.org/yang-nycconf 40%
- 2028-11-09pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.065 |
| killer | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | 25.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.038 |
| killer | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.034 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.010 |
| killer | TK07 Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | 18.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.001 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (7)
Prerequisites (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK07 | Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | — | — |
| killer | TK10 | $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (2)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.608 | polymarket | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | 37% | mentions | pending | 2025-10-24 |
| 0.586 | manifold | Will MrBeast become a billionaire before age 35? | 97% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-18 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-Politician",
"context": "I think that human billionaires are going to be the first movers in this direction. Uh, and uh, they're going to center it around where they live.",
"verbatim": "I think that human billionaires are going to be the first movers in this direction. Uh, and uh, they're going to center it around where they live.",
"conv_cues": "are going to be",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Unspecified future",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2027-03-04",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First publicly-announced billionaire-funded regional cash-transfer program in their home metro (>=$50M committed, >=10,000 recipients)",
"source": "https://hai.stanford.edu/news/radical-proposal-universal-basic-income-offset-job-losses-due-automation",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_date": "2027-03-17",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Press release from a Forbes-listed billionaire or their foundation announcing a multi-year unconditional cash transfer program targeted at the metro/region they live in, with >=$50M committed and >=10,000 enrolled recipients"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Yang/Humanity Forward expands philanthropic UBI footprint past Hudson/Denver pilots into >=5 new cities",
"source": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/andrew-yang-universal-basic-income-plan-put-to-the-test-with-freedom-dividend-pilot-program/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.5,
"expected_date": "2027-08-01",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-06-30",
"from": "2026-09-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Humanity Forward annual report or Andrew Yang public communication confirms active GBI pilots in >=5 new municipalities"
},
{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
"label": "At least three additional billionaire-backed local UBI/GBI programs announced in same year as the first",
"source": "https://metropolitics.org/From-Universal-Basic-Income-to-Guaranteed-Basic-Income-An-Experiment-for-Cities.html",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.45,
"expected_date": "2028-01-01",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-12-31",
"from": "2027-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "News tracker or Stanford Basic Income Lab reports >=3 additional billionaire-funded city/county-level guaranteed income programs >=$25M each"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2028-01-06",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
"label": "Federal/state legislator cites billionaire-backed regional UBI as model in introduced legislation",
"source": "https://www.ubicenter.org/yang-nyc",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.4,
"expected_date": "2028-06-15",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2029-06-30",
"from": "2027-06-01"
},
"measurement_crit
... (truncated)