Artificial wombs will eventually enable productionized de-extinction species
Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source
Prediction text
Artificial wombs will eventually enable productionized de-extinction species | eventually it'll be productionized like once we are successful with artificial wombs... So we have we have three uh they don't work yet but we have three moon we have three mini moonshots within our big moonshot
Verbatim quote
eventually it'll be productionized like once we are successful with artificial wombs... So we have we have three uh they don't work yet but we have three moon we have three mini moonshots within our big moonshot
Predictor: Ben Lamm
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
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Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-15hitColossal Biosciences thylacine artificial uterus reaches mid-gestation marsupial embryo developmentHow: Colossal publishes proof of marsupial embryo cultured past midpoint of gestation in artificial uterus prototypeSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 92%
- 2026-10-01 → 2026-12-31pendingColossal mammoth embryos ready for elephant surrogate implantation by end of 2026How: Colossal announces edited mammoth embryos cleared for transfer to surrogate Asian elephantsSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingEXTEND artificial womb begins first-in-human clinical trials for premature infantsHow: FDA-approved Phase 1 trial enrollment opens for partial ectogenesis on extremely premature neonatesSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
- 2027-06-07pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2028-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFirst woolly mammoth calf born from edited Asian elephant surrogateHow: Live birth confirmed by Colossal of mammoth-edited calf, peer-reviewed genetic verificationSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
- 2028-07-15pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2029-08-23pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2030-10-01pendingProductionized de-extinction species via artificial wombs (event)How: First non-mammalian or marsupial de-extinction birth via artificial womb achieves commercial-grade reliability (>50% success rate per cohort)Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 30%
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Evidence chain
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Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (3)
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (1)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.557 | arxiv | Nonthermal leptogenesis via cosmological gravitational particle production is tested by inflationary gravitational waves | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "3 mini moonshots for different animal clades",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
"mode": "ASPIRATION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"caveats": "Artificial wombs don't work yet; 4 core, 9 core placental types to innovate",
"context": "eventually it'll be productionized like once we are successful with artificial wombs... we have three uh they don't work yet but we have three moon we have three mini moonshots within our big moonshot",
"verbatim": "eventually it'll be productionized like once we are successful with artificial wombs... So we have we have three uh they don't work yet but we have three moon we have three mini moonshots within our big moonshot",
"conv_cues": "eventually; they don't work yet",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Future (conditional on success)",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Colossal Biosciences thylacine artificial uterus reaches mid-gestation marsupial embryo development",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.92,
"source_url": "https://www.iflscience.com/thylacine-de-extinction-achieves-mid-gestation-marsupial-embryo-development-in-artificial-uterus-77640",
"expected_date": "2026-04-15",
"observed_date": "2026-04-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Colossal publishes proof of marsupial embryo cultured past midpoint of gestation in artificial uterus prototype"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Colossal mammoth embryos ready for elephant surrogate implantation by end of 2026",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossal_Biosciences",
"expected_date": "2026-11-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-12-31",
"from": "2026-10-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Colossal announces edited mammoth embryos cleared for transfer to surrogate Asian elephants"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "EXTEND artificial womb begins first-in-human clinical trials for premature infants",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.6,
"source_url": "https://fertilityinnovationlab.com/artificial-womb-technology-in-2026-overview/",
"expected_date": "2027-05-02",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-12-31",
"from": "2026-09-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "FDA-approved Phase 1 trial enrollment opens for partial ectogenesis on extremely premature neonates"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2027-06-07",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First woolly mammoth calf born from edited Asian elephant surrogate",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.45,
"source_url": "https://impakter.com/de-extinction-can-science-really-bring-species-back-to-life/",
"expected_date": "2028-07-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-12-31",
"from": "2028-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Live birth confirmed by Colossal of mammoth-edited calf, peer-reviewed genetic verification"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_ch
... (truncated)