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245_013predictionBiotech/LongevityAI-timing

Artificial wombs will eventually enable productionized de-extinction species

Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
40.6%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2032-12-31
Edges in / out
3 / 0
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Artificial wombs will eventually enable productionized de-extinction species | eventually it'll be productionized like once we are successful with artificial wombs... So we have we have three uh they don't work yet but we have three moon we have three mini moonshots within our big moonshot

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)"
eventually it'll be productionized like once we are successful with artificial wombs... So we have we have three uh they don't work yet but we have three moon we have three mini moonshots within our big moonshot

Predictor: Ben Lamm

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0043
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

2 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-04-30
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 40.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 6 pending
  1. 2026-04-15hitColossal Biosciences thylacine artificial uterus reaches mid-gestation marsupial embryo development
    How: Colossal publishes proof of marsupial embryo cultured past midpoint of gestation in artificial uterus prototype
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 92%
  2. 2026-10-01 → 2026-12-31pendingColossal mammoth embryos ready for elephant surrogate implantation by end of 2026
    How: Colossal announces edited mammoth embryos cleared for transfer to surrogate Asian elephants
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingEXTEND artificial womb begins first-in-human clinical trials for premature infants
    How: FDA-approved Phase 1 trial enrollment opens for partial ectogenesis on extremely premature neonates
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
  4. 2027-06-07pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  5. 2028-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFirst woolly mammoth calf born from edited Asian elephant surrogate
    How: Live birth confirmed by Colossal of mammoth-edited calf, peer-reviewed genetic verification
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
  6. 2028-07-15pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  7. 2029-08-23pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  8. 2030-10-01pendingProductionized de-extinction species via artificial wombs (event)
    How: First non-mammalian or marsupial de-extinction birth via artificial womb achieves commercial-grade reliability (>50% success rate per cohort)
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 30%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 41%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z40.6%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 42.1% → 40.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z42.1%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 42.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.450-0.036
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.450-0.016
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.450+0.004

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.557arxivNonthermal leptogenesis via cosmological gravitational particle production is tested by inflationary gravitational wavesmentionspending2026-05-06

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "3 mini moonshots for different animal clades",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "Artificial wombs don't work yet; 4 core, 9 core placental types to innovate",
  "context": "eventually it'll be productionized like once we are successful with artificial wombs... we have three uh they don't work yet but we have three moon we have three mini moonshots within our big moonshot",
  "verbatim": "eventually it'll be productionized like once we are successful with artificial wombs... So we have we have three uh they don't work yet but we have three moon we have three mini moonshots within our big moonshot",
  "conv_cues": "eventually; they don't work yet",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Future (conditional on success)",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal Biosciences thylacine artificial uterus reaches mid-gestation marsupial embryo development",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "source_url": "https://www.iflscience.com/thylacine-de-extinction-achieves-mid-gestation-marsupial-embryo-development-in-artificial-uterus-77640",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal publishes proof of marsupial embryo cultured past midpoint of gestation in artificial uterus prototype"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal mammoth embryos ready for elephant surrogate implantation by end of 2026",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossal_Biosciences",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-10-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal announces edited mammoth embryos cleared for transfer to surrogate Asian elephants"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "EXTEND artificial womb begins first-in-human clinical trials for premature infants",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://fertilityinnovationlab.com/artificial-womb-technology-in-2026-overview/",
      "expected_date": "2027-05-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "FDA-approved Phase 1 trial enrollment opens for partial ectogenesis on extremely premature neonates"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-06-07",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First woolly mammoth calf born from edited Asian elephant surrogate",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://impakter.com/de-extinction-can-science-really-bring-species-back-to-life/",
      "expected_date": "2028-07-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Live birth confirmed by Colossal of mammoth-edited calf, peer-reviewed genetic verification"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_ch
... (truncated)