CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions

CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions | we're going to start to see this in a multitude of different areas. Medical school, lawyers, right? Um accountants

we're going to start to see this in a multitude of different areas. Medical school, lawyers, right? Um accountants

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "we're going to start to see this in a multitude of different areas. Medical school, lawyers, right? Um accountants",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "we're going to start to see this in a multitude of different areas. Medical school, lawyers, right? Um accountants",
  "conv_cues": "going to start",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Future (near-term)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "CS recent grad unemployment hits historic high",
      "notes": "HIT — CS unemployment hit 6.1% in 2025, recent grad unemployment 5.7% in Q4 2025 (worse than 2008 financial crisis).",
      "source": "https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/28/tech/computer-science-graduates-job-hunt-ai",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/28/tech/computer-science-graduates-job-hunt-ai",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Federal Reserve / NACE / NY Fed data shows CS recent grad unemployment >=6% for Q4 2025"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "CS enrollment drops 8.1% in 2025-2026 academic year",
      "notes": "HIT — CS enrollment dropped 8.1% (steepest of any field).",
      "source": "https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/28/tech/computer-science-graduates-job-hunt-ai",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/28/tech/computer-science-graduates-job-hunt-ai",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NCES/NSC reports show >=5% YoY decline in CS program enrollment for 2025-2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Software development job postings down 70%+ from 2022 peak",
      "notes": "HIT — Indeed software development postings fell 71% Feb 2022 to August 2025.",
      "source": "https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/28/tech/computer-science-graduates-job-hunt-ai",
      "status": "hit",
    
... (truncated)