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238_045predictionBiotech/LongevityAI-timing

Eon Systems aims to upload human minds to cyberspace as soon as possible

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
45.3%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31
Edges in / out
4 / 0
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Eon Systems aims to upload human minds to cyberspace as soon as possible | Eon Systems which I co-ounded has the goal of ultimately uploading human minds and non-human minds to cyerspace. We want to put a human in the cloud as soon as we possibly can

Verbatim quote

From episode "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238"
Eon Systems which I co-ounded has the goal of ultimately uploading human minds and non-human minds to cyerspace. We want to put a human in the cloud as soon as we possibly can

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

2 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-04-30
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 45.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 5 pending
  1. 2024-12-31hitEon Systems publishes Drosophila whole-brain emulation in Nature (2024)
    How: Eon Systems senior scientist Philip Shiu and collaborators publish peer-reviewed paper in Nature describing computational model of complete adult Drosophila brain (~125,000 neurons, 50M synapses) from FlyWire connectome.
    Source: Eon Systems — Upload the Human Mindconf 95%
    Notes: HIT — established the founding scientific basis. First step in the upload-to-cyberspace pipeline.
  2. 2026-03-16hitFirst multi-behavior cyber-Drosophila body-brain integration (March 2026)
    How: Eon Systems publicly demonstrates connectome-based brain emulation closing the loop with a physics-simulated fly body — sensory input flowing in, neural activity propagating through full connectome, motor commands driving simulated body.
    Source: The Register — Digital fruit fly brain model walks and cleans its feelers (March 16, 2026)conf 95%
    Notes: HIT — first whole-brain emulation embodied for multi-behavior output. Direct progress toward the 'human in cloud ASAP' goal.
  3. 2027-05-04pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  4. 2028-05-08pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2030-12-31pendingEon publishes mouse-brain partial emulation (~70M neurons)
    How: Eon Systems publishes peer-reviewed work demonstrating computational emulation of a mammalian brain region or full mouse brain (~70M neurons), 560x increase from fly baseline.
    Source: Anticipated — Nature / Science publication, Eon corporate roadmapconf 40%
    Notes: The mouse brain milestone is Eon's stated next mission. Direct precondition for human-scale viability.
  6. 2029-05-13pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  7. 2027-01-01 → 2031-12-31pendingFirst peer-reviewed human cortical organoid + connectome integration
    How: A peer-reviewed paper (Eon or competitor) demonstrates AI inference of human cortical microcircuit dynamics combined with electron-microscopy connectome data at scale exceeding 1M neurons.
    Source: Anticipated — Nature, Science, Cell publicationsconf 30%
    Notes: Bridge step between mouse and full human upload.
  8. 2029-01-01 → 2031-12-31pendingFirst publicly announced commercial 'whole-brain digital twin' service
    How: Eon, Nectome, or competitor publicly announces commercial human brain-scanning + digital-emulation service, even if research-grade and incomplete.
    Source: Anticipated — Eon Systems, Nectome corporate announcementsconf 15%
    Notes: Cascade — commercial threshold for the 'human in cloud ASAP' aspiration. The 2026-2031 window is highly aggressive for human-scale.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 45%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z45.3%-1.6pp
Network propagation: 46.9% → 45.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.9%-3.1pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.500-0.043
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.500-0.020
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.500-0.007
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.500+0.002

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (4)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Eon Systems which I co-ounded has the goal of ultimately uploading human minds and non-human minds to cyerspace. We want to put a human in the cloud as soon as we possibly can",
  "verbatim": "Eon Systems which I co-ounded has the goal of ultimately uploading human minds and non-human minds to cyerspace. We want to put a human in the cloud as soon as we possibly can",
  "conv_cues": "as soon as we possibly can",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Long-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Eon Systems publishes Drosophila whole-brain emulation in Nature (2024)",
      "notes": "HIT — established the founding scientific basis. First step in the upload-to-cyberspace pipeline.",
      "source": "Eon Systems — Upload the Human Mind",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://eon.systems/",
      "expected_date": "2024-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2024-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Eon Systems senior scientist Philip Shiu and collaborators publish peer-reviewed paper in Nature describing computational model of complete adult Drosophila brain (~125,000 neurons, 50M synapses) from FlyWire connectome."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First multi-behavior cyber-Drosophila body-brain integration (March 2026)",
      "notes": "HIT — first whole-brain emulation embodied for multi-behavior output. Direct progress toward the 'human in cloud ASAP' goal.",
      "source": "The Register — Digital fruit fly brain model walks and cleans its feelers (March 16, 2026)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.theregister.com/2026/03/16/digital_fruit_fly_brain_model/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Eon Systems publicly demonstrates connectome-based brain emulation closing the loop with a physics-simulated fly body — sensory input flowing in, neural activity propagating through full connectome, motor commands driving simulated body."
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-05-04",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-05-08",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Eon publishes mouse-brain partial emulation (~70M neurons)",
      "notes": "The mouse brain milestone is Eon's stated next mission. Direct precondition for human-scale viability.",
      "source": "Anticipated — Nature / Science publication, Eon corporate roadmap",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2029-03-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
        "from": "2027-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Eon Systems publishes peer-reviewed work demonstrating computational emulation of a mammalian brain region or full mouse brain (~70M neurons), 560x increase from fly baseline."
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "20
... (truncated)