Eon Systems aims to upload human minds to cyberspace as soon as possible
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source
Prediction text
Eon Systems aims to upload human minds to cyberspace as soon as possible | Eon Systems which I co-ounded has the goal of ultimately uploading human minds and non-human minds to cyerspace. We want to put a human in the cloud as soon as we possibly can
Verbatim quote
Eon Systems which I co-ounded has the goal of ultimately uploading human minds and non-human minds to cyerspace. We want to put a human in the cloud as soon as we possibly can
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
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Reference class
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Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2024-12-31hitEon Systems publishes Drosophila whole-brain emulation in Nature (2024)How: Eon Systems senior scientist Philip Shiu and collaborators publish peer-reviewed paper in Nature describing computational model of complete adult Drosophila brain (~125,000 neurons, 50M synapses) from FlyWire connectome.Source: Eon Systems — Upload the Human Mindconf 95%Notes: HIT — established the founding scientific basis. First step in the upload-to-cyberspace pipeline.
- 2026-03-16hitFirst multi-behavior cyber-Drosophila body-brain integration (March 2026)How: Eon Systems publicly demonstrates connectome-based brain emulation closing the loop with a physics-simulated fly body — sensory input flowing in, neural activity propagating through full connectome, motor commands driving simulated body.Source: The Register — Digital fruit fly brain model walks and cleans its feelers (March 16, 2026)conf 95%Notes: HIT — first whole-brain emulation embodied for multi-behavior output. Direct progress toward the 'human in cloud ASAP' goal.
- 2027-05-04pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2028-05-08pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2027-06-01 → 2030-12-31pendingEon publishes mouse-brain partial emulation (~70M neurons)How: Eon Systems publishes peer-reviewed work demonstrating computational emulation of a mammalian brain region or full mouse brain (~70M neurons), 560x increase from fly baseline.Source: Anticipated — Nature / Science publication, Eon corporate roadmapconf 40%Notes: The mouse brain milestone is Eon's stated next mission. Direct precondition for human-scale viability.
- 2029-05-13pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2027-01-01 → 2031-12-31pendingFirst peer-reviewed human cortical organoid + connectome integrationHow: A peer-reviewed paper (Eon or competitor) demonstrates AI inference of human cortical microcircuit dynamics combined with electron-microscopy connectome data at scale exceeding 1M neurons.Source: Anticipated — Nature, Science, Cell publicationsconf 30%Notes: Bridge step between mouse and full human upload.
- 2029-01-01 → 2031-12-31pendingFirst publicly announced commercial 'whole-brain digital twin' serviceHow: Eon, Nectome, or competitor publicly announces commercial human brain-scanning + digital-emulation service, even if research-grade and incomplete.Source: Anticipated — Eon Systems, Nectome corporate announcementsconf 15%Notes: Cascade — commercial threshold for the 'human in cloud ASAP' aspiration. The 2026-2031 window is highly aggressive for human-scale.
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | -0.043 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | -0.020 |
| killer | TK15 SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | -0.007 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.002 |
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Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (4)
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
"mode": "ASPIRATION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "Eon Systems which I co-ounded has the goal of ultimately uploading human minds and non-human minds to cyerspace. We want to put a human in the cloud as soon as we possibly can",
"verbatim": "Eon Systems which I co-ounded has the goal of ultimately uploading human minds and non-human minds to cyerspace. We want to put a human in the cloud as soon as we possibly can",
"conv_cues": "as soon as we possibly can",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Long-term",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
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"label": "Eon Systems publishes Drosophila whole-brain emulation in Nature (2024)",
"notes": "HIT — established the founding scientific basis. First step in the upload-to-cyberspace pipeline.",
"source": "Eon Systems — Upload the Human Mind",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
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"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://eon.systems/",
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"observed_date": "2024-12-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
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},
{
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"expected_date": "2026-03-15",
"observed_date": "2026-03-16",
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"measurement_criterion": "Eon Systems publicly demonstrates connectome-based brain emulation closing the loop with a physics-simulated fly body — sensory input flowing in, neural activity propagating through full connectome, motor commands driving simulated body."
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
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"observed_date": null
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{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
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},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Eon publishes mouse-brain partial emulation (~70M neurons)",
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"source": "Anticipated — Nature / Science publication, Eon corporate roadmap",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
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"confidence": 0.4,
"expected_date": "2029-03-16",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2030-12-31",
"from": "2027-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Eon Systems publishes peer-reviewed work demonstrating computational emulation of a mammalian brain region or full mouse brain (~70M neurons), 560x increase from fly baseline."
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "20
... (truncated)