Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source
Prediction text
Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI | math I think is in some sense the bellweather. It's the the canary that owns the coal mine that all of these fields math science engineering medicine these are all going to be solved. solve everything by AI
Verbatim quote
math I think is in some sense the bellweather. It's the the canary that owns the coal mine that all of these fields math science engineering medicine these are all going to be solved. solve everything by AI
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-22hitAI discovers novel physical phenomenon (Phase 1 Pure Information milestone)How: Peer-reviewed publication of AI-discovered physical phenomenon (e.g., dusty plasma fourth-state-of-matter result)Source: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/04/260422044635.htmconf 85%
- 2026-11-10pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-07-01 → 2027-09-30pendingFrontier AI achieves IMO Gold-equivalent / Putnam-tier math performanceHow: OpenAI / DeepMind / Anthropic frontier model verified to achieve IMO Gold or top-percentile Putnam under standard contest conditionsSource: https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/solve-everythingconf 70%Notes: Wissner-Gross calls math the 'canary' — IMO/Putnam parity is the canonical threshold.
- 2027-05-23pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFirst FDA-approved drug with AI-generated molecule leadHow: FDA grants approval to a therapeutic where lead molecule was generated by AI (e.g., Insilico, Recursion, Isomorphic) without significant manual rescaffoldingSource: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/business-school/ib-knowledge/technology/how-ai-could-usher-new-age-scientific-discovery/conf 55%Notes: Medicine pillar — first AI-originated approval is canonical milestone.
- 2026-12-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFrontier model passes engineering board licensure (PE/EIT/electrical) under exam conditionsHow: Independently verified pass on Professional Engineer or comparable engineering licensure exam by frontier model under closed-book conditionsSource: https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/solve-everythingconf 60%
- 2027-12-03pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingWissner-Gross/Diamandis 'Solve Everything' Phase 1 (math/code/physics) marked as functionally completeHow: Public Wissner-Gross/Diamandis update or analyst consensus declares Phase 1 (information-bound problems) substantively solved by frontier AISource: https://metatrends.substack.com/p/how-we-get-to-abundance-by-2035-andconf 40%Notes: Cascade — Phase 1 completion is the pivot point to Phase 2 (chemistry/biology).
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | 35.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.192 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.083 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.058 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.033 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (4)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_MID_2029 | AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (2)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.632 | manifold | Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027? | 16% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-04 |
| 0.572 | manifold | Will I solve an Erdos problem? | 6% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-27 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
"mode": "PROPHECY",
"role": "Host",
"context": "math I think is in some sense the bellweather. It's the the canary that owns the coal mine that all of these fields math science engineering medicine these are all going to be solved. solve everything by AI and that's incredibly exciting.",
"verbatim": "math I think is in some sense the bellweather. It's the the canary that owns the coal mine that all of these fields math science engineering medicine these are all going to be solved. solve everything by AI",
"conv_cues": "all going to be solved; solve everything",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Near future",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "AI discovers novel physical phenomenon (Phase 1 Pure Information milestone)",
"source": "https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/04/260422044635.htm",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/04/260422044635.htm",
"expected_date": "2026-04-22",
"observed_date": "2026-04-22",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Peer-reviewed publication of AI-discovered physical phenomenon (e.g., dusty plasma fourth-state-of-matter result)"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-11-10",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Frontier AI achieves IMO Gold-equivalent / Putnam-tier math performance",
"notes": "Wissner-Gross calls math the 'canary' — IMO/Putnam parity is the canonical threshold.",
"source": "https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/solve-everything",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"source_url": "https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/solve-everything",
"expected_date": "2027-02-14",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-09-30",
"from": "2026-07-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "OpenAI / DeepMind / Anthropic frontier model verified to achieve IMO Gold or top-percentile Putnam under standard contest conditions"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2027-05-23",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First FDA-approved drug with AI-generated molecule lead",
"notes": "Medicine pillar — first AI-originated approval is canonical milestone.",
"source": "https://www.imperial.ac.uk/business-school/ib-knowledge/technology/how-ai-could-usher-new-age-scientific-discovery/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://www.imperial.ac.uk/business-school/ib-knowledge/technology/how-ai-could-usher-new-age-scientific-discovery/",
"expected_date": "2027-06-16",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-06-30",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "FDA grants approval to a therapeutic where lead molecule was generated by AI (e.g., Insilico, Recursion, Isomorphic) without significant manual rescaffolding"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Frontier model passes engineering board licensure (PE/EIT/electrical) under exam conditions",
"source": "https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/solve-everything",
"status"
... (truncated)