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238_021predictionAIAI-timing

Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
41.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31
Edges in / out
4 / 0
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI | math I think is in some sense the bellweather. It's the the canary that owns the coal mine that all of these fields math science engineering medicine these are all going to be solved. solve everything by AI

Verbatim quote

From episode "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238"
math I think is in some sense the bellweather. It's the the canary that owns the coal mine that all of these fields math science engineering medicine these are all going to be solved. solve everything by AI

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 41.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 7 pending
  1. 2026-04-22hitAI discovers novel physical phenomenon (Phase 1 Pure Information milestone)
    How: Peer-reviewed publication of AI-discovered physical phenomenon (e.g., dusty plasma fourth-state-of-matter result)
    Source: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/04/260422044635.htmconf 85%
  2. 2026-11-10pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  3. 2026-07-01 → 2027-09-30pendingFrontier AI achieves IMO Gold-equivalent / Putnam-tier math performance
    How: OpenAI / DeepMind / Anthropic frontier model verified to achieve IMO Gold or top-percentile Putnam under standard contest conditions
    Source: https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/solve-everythingconf 70%
    Notes: Wissner-Gross calls math the 'canary' — IMO/Putnam parity is the canonical threshold.
  4. 2027-05-23pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFirst FDA-approved drug with AI-generated molecule lead
    How: FDA grants approval to a therapeutic where lead molecule was generated by AI (e.g., Insilico, Recursion, Isomorphic) without significant manual rescaffolding
    Source: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/business-school/ib-knowledge/technology/how-ai-could-usher-new-age-scientific-discovery/conf 55%
    Notes: Medicine pillar — first AI-originated approval is canonical milestone.
  6. 2026-12-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFrontier model passes engineering board licensure (PE/EIT/electrical) under exam conditions
    How: Independently verified pass on Professional Engineer or comparable engineering licensure exam by frontier model under closed-book conditions
    Source: https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/solve-everythingconf 60%
  7. 2027-12-03pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  8. 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingWissner-Gross/Diamandis 'Solve Everything' Phase 1 (math/code/physics) marked as functionally complete
    How: Public Wissner-Gross/Diamandis update or analyst consensus declares Phase 1 (information-bound problems) substantively solved by frontier AI
    Source: https://metatrends.substack.com/p/how-we-get-to-abundance-by-2035-andconf 40%
    Notes: Cascade — Phase 1 completion is the pivot point to Phase 2 (chemistry/biology).

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 42%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z41.7%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 42.8% → 41.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z42.8%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 42.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z45.0%-4.5pp
Network propagation: 49.5% → 45.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.5%-1.9pp
Network propagation: 51.4% → 49.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.4%-3.6pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_AGI_MID_2029
AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path
35.0%0.5500.050-0.192
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.083
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.550+0.058
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.550+0.033

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (4)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqS_AGI_MID_2029AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 pathagi_general_capability
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.632manifoldWill Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027?16%mentionspending2026-06-04
0.572manifoldWill I solve an Erdos problem?6%mentionspending2026-04-27

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "PROPHECY",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "math I think is in some sense the bellweather. It's the the canary that owns the coal mine that all of these fields math science engineering medicine these are all going to be solved. solve everything by AI and that's incredibly exciting.",
  "verbatim": "math I think is in some sense the bellweather. It's the the canary that owns the coal mine that all of these fields math science engineering medicine these are all going to be solved. solve everything by AI",
  "conv_cues": "all going to be solved; solve everything",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Near future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI discovers novel physical phenomenon (Phase 1 Pure Information milestone)",
      "source": "https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/04/260422044635.htm",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/04/260422044635.htm",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-22",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-22",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Peer-reviewed publication of AI-discovered physical phenomenon (e.g., dusty plasma fourth-state-of-matter result)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-11-10",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Frontier AI achieves IMO Gold-equivalent / Putnam-tier math performance",
      "notes": "Wissner-Gross calls math the 'canary' — IMO/Putnam parity is the canonical threshold.",
      "source": "https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/solve-everything",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/solve-everything",
      "expected_date": "2027-02-14",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-09-30",
        "from": "2026-07-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI / DeepMind / Anthropic frontier model verified to achieve IMO Gold or top-percentile Putnam under standard contest conditions"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-05-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First FDA-approved drug with AI-generated molecule lead",
      "notes": "Medicine pillar — first AI-originated approval is canonical milestone.",
      "source": "https://www.imperial.ac.uk/business-school/ib-knowledge/technology/how-ai-could-usher-new-age-scientific-discovery/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.imperial.ac.uk/business-school/ib-knowledge/technology/how-ai-could-usher-new-age-scientific-discovery/",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "FDA grants approval to a therapeutic where lead molecule was generated by AI (e.g., Insilico, Recursion, Isomorphic) without significant manual rescaffolding"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Frontier model passes engineering board licensure (PE/EIT/electrical) under exam conditions",
      "source": "https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/solve-everything",
      "status"
... (truncated)