Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ...
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Prediction text
Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects thousands of downstream enterprise agent networks at machine speed, bypassing traditional firewall perimeters entirely. | Next major AI-package supply chain CVE
Key catalyst: Next major AI-package supply chain CVE
Watch events: PyPI/npm AI-package attack incidents; enterprise SBOM mandates
Resolution evidence
LiteLLM CVE-2024/2025 disclosures documented; PyPI / npm AI-package supply-chain attacks increasing 2024-2026. Snyk, Socket.dev reporting sharp rises.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y
Frontier AI used in successful catastrophic-class (bio/cyber/chem) attack within 1y of capability claim
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-03-01hitCVE-2026-33634 issued for upstream Trivy / TeamPCP campaignHow: MITRE/NVD assigns CVE with CVSS ≥9.0 for AI-toolchain supply-chain attack with documented downstream cascadeSource: https://www.kaspersky.com/blog/critical-supply-chain-attack-trivy-litellm-checkmarx-teampcp/55510/conf 95%Notes: HIT — CVE-2026-33634 with CVSS 9.4. Trivy → LiteLLM cascade was attack mechanism.
- 2026-03-24hitLiteLLM PyPI supply-chain compromise (versions 1.82.7, 1.82.8)How: Documented compromise of widely-used AI package on PyPI/npm with confirmed downstream propagationSource: https://docs.litellm.ai/blog/security-update-march-2026 — LiteLLM 1.82.7/1.82.8 compromised March 24 2026conf 99%Notes: HIT — exactly the event Wissner-Gross referenced. LiteLLM downloaded 3.4M times/day, ≥20K downstream repos potentially exposed.
- 2026-03-24hitThree-stage payload hits credential / Kubernetes / backdoor at scaleHow: Compromised package shown to deploy credential harvester targeting ≥50 secret types + lateral-movement toolkit + persistent backdoorSource: https://www.helpnetsecurity.com/2026/03/25/teampcp-supply-chain-attacks/conf 99%
- 2026-07-21pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingSecond wave of AI-package supply-chain CVE during 2026How: ≥1 additional widely-deployed AI/agent package compromised at PyPI/npm scale during 2026, after LiteLLMSource: TeamPCP campaign tracked as 'Phase 09' — implies further phases pending; Wiz/Snyk/Kaspersky monitoringconf 75%
- 2027-02-07pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingEnterprise breach attributable to AI-package compromise reported in SEC 8-KHow: Public-company 8-K filing discloses material breach attributable to compromised open-source AI packageSource: SEC EDGAR, security-incident filingsconf 55%Notes: Cascade — operationalizes Wissner-Gross's 'systemic risk' framing as a measurable enterprise impact event.
- 2027-08-27pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 0.8675103990988756,
"kappa": 0.8438,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"total_llr": 0.4054651081081644,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": 1.009422591843683,
"bayes_factor": "1.4:1 favoring",
"blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
"inside_prior": 0.7329071343302511,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"blend_applied": false,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": 0.4054651081081644,
"kappa": 0.8438,
"label": "Industry concern about AI supply-chain / packaging attacks now mainstream enough to motivate dedicated cyber-AI initiati",
"adjusted_llr": 0.3421314582216691
}
],
"evidence_kind": "intake_event_update",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 1,
"outside_weight": 0,
"posterior_prob": 0.7943835802353901,
"evidence_origin": "daily_intake",
"llm_suggestions": [
{
"polarity": "corroborates",
"status_change": "unchanged",
"evidence_strength": "weak",
"delta_prob_suggestion": 0.03
}
],
"posterior_logit": 1.351554050065352,
"predictor_brier": 0.03413,
"evidence_doc_ids": [],
"inside_posterior": 0.7943835802353901,
"blended_posterior": 0.7943835802353901,
"reference_class_id": null,
"total_adjusted_llr": 0.3421314582216691,
"predictor_n_resolved": 11
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (13)
Prerequisites (2)
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | partial | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | LiteLLM CVE-2024/2025 disclosures documented; PyPI / npm AI-package supply-chain attacks increasing 2024-2026. Snyk, Socket.dev reporting sharp rises. |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Cited-Other",
"context": "Specific vector extending 231_017 (Wissner-Gross: major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight models is expected). LiteLLM is named vulnerable component.",
"to_year": 2028,
"conv_cues": "specific named framework vulnerability; severe framing",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "2026-2028",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "CVE-2026-33634 issued for upstream Trivy / TeamPCP campaign",
"notes": "HIT — CVE-2026-33634 with CVSS 9.4. Trivy → LiteLLM cascade was attack mechanism.",
"source": "https://www.kaspersky.com/blog/critical-supply-chain-attack-trivy-litellm-checkmarx-teampcp/55510/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.kaspersky.com/blog/critical-supply-chain-attack-trivy-litellm-checkmarx-teampcp/55510/",
"expected_date": "2026-03-01",
"observed_date": "2026-03-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "MITRE/NVD assigns CVE with CVSS ≥9.0 for AI-toolchain supply-chain attack with documented downstream cascade"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "LiteLLM PyPI supply-chain compromise (versions 1.82.7, 1.82.8)",
"notes": "HIT — exactly the event Wissner-Gross referenced. LiteLLM downloaded 3.4M times/day, ≥20K downstream repos potentially exposed.",
"source": "https://docs.litellm.ai/blog/security-update-march-2026 — LiteLLM 1.82.7/1.82.8 compromised March 24 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://docs.litellm.ai/blog/security-update-march-2026",
"expected_date": "2026-03-24",
"observed_date": "2026-03-24",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Documented compromise of widely-used AI package on PyPI/npm with confirmed downstream propagation"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Three-stage payload hits credential / Kubernetes / backdoor at scale",
"source": "https://www.helpnetsecurity.com/2026/03/25/teampcp-supply-chain-attacks/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.helpnetsecurity.com/2026/03/25/teampcp-supply-chain-attacks/",
"expected_date": "2026-03-24",
"observed_date": "2026-03-24",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Compromised package shown to deploy credential harvester targeting ≥50 secret types + lateral-movement toolkit + persistent backdoor"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-07-21",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Second wave of AI-package supply-chain CVE during 2026",
"source": "TeamPCP campaign tracked as 'Phase 09' — implies further phases pending; Wiz/Snyk/Kaspersky monitoring",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.75,
"source_url": "https://snyk.io/blog/poisoned-security-scanner-backdooring-litellm/",
"expected_date": "2026-09-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "≥1 additional widely-deployed AI/agent package compromised at PyPI/npm scale during 2026, after LiteLLM"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
... (truncated)