Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox)

Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox) | as the algorithms become more efficient, you don't need less power, you need even more power and even more computers because we discover new uses

as the algorithms become more efficient, you don't need less power, you need even more power and even more computers because we discover new uses

Jevons paradox for compute already observable — efficiency gains funded more inference, not less.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "you don't need less power, you need even more power",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "as the algorithms become more efficient, you don't need less power, you need even more power and even more computers because we discover new uses",
  "conv_cues": "I am sure that that is true",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Google Gemini per-prompt energy down 33x while total grows",
      "notes": "HIT — Google reduced median energy per Gemini prompt 33x May 2024 to May 2025, yet total demand still rising.",
      "source": "https://www.brookings.edu/articles/global-energy-demands-within-the-ai-regulatory-landscape/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.brookings.edu/articles/global-energy-demands-within-the-ai-regulatory-landscape/",
      "expected_date": "2025-05-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-05-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Google publishes data showing per-query energy efficiency improved ≥10x while overall consumption rises (Jevons paradox)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "IEA reports data center electricity surge of 17% in 2025",
      "notes": "HIT — IEA: data centre electricity demand surged 17% in 2025, AI-focused even faster, vs global growth 3%.",
      "source": "https://www.iea.org/news/data-centre-electricity-use-surged-in-2025-even-with-tightening-bottlenecks-driving-a-scramble-for-solutions",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.iea.org/news/data-centre-electricity-use-surged-in-2025-even-with-tightening-bottlenecks-driving-a-scramble-for-solutions",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "IEA confirms global data center electricity use grew ≥15% in 2025, well outpacing global electricity growth of 3%"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Goldman Sachs forecasts 165% data center power demand increase by 2030",
      "notes": "HIT — Goldman Sachs published 165% increase forecast supporting Jevons claim.",
      "source": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/ai-to-drive-165-increase-in-data-center-power-demand-by-2030",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/ai-to-drive-165-increase-in-data-center-power-demand-by-2030",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Goldman Sachs or comparable bank publishes research forecasting >150% data center power demand increase by 2030"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": 
... (truncated)