SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.

SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. | SKH HBM share + NVIDIA supplier disclosures

Key catalyst: SKH HBM share + NVIDIA supplier disclosures

Watch events: SKH quarterly HBM revenue; NVIDIA HBM supplier mix disclosures.

SKH Q1 2026 earnings: HBM revenue +3x YoY; NVIDIA-reserved capacity skewed to SKH per channel checks.

Beneficiaries (24)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": ">50% NVIDIA HBM",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "context": "Consistent with SKH early HBM3/3E dominance and first-mover HBM4 qualification.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "cited_by": "Synthesis report",
  "conv_cues": "specific share; major bank",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SK Hynix Q2 2025 HBM market share reported at 62%",
      "notes": "HIT — 62% > 50% requirement firmly met.",
      "source": "Astute Group / TrendForce HBM market share data",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.astutegroup.com/news/general/sk-hynix-holds-62-of-hbm-micron-overtakes-samsung-2026-battle-pivots-to-hbm4/",
      "expected_date": "2025-08-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-08-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SK Hynix reports 62% global HBM market share in Q2 2025, well above 50% threshold"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SK Hynix sells out 2026 DRAM/HBM/NAND supply to NVIDIA",
      "notes": "HIT — SK Hynix confirmed full 2026 supply sold out to NVIDIA, sealing >50% share for HBM3E.",
      "source": "CNBC — SK Hynix Q3 2025 results",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/29/sk-hynix-q3-profit-revenue-record-.html",
      "expected_date": "2025-10-29",
      "observed_date": "2025-10-29",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SK Hynix Q3 2025 earnings confirm full 2026 capacity sold to NVIDIA"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-18",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SK Hynix HBM4 shipments to NVIDIA Rubin start in March 2026",
      "source": "TrendForce — Samsung/SK Hynix HBM4 supplier news Mar 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/03/09/news-samsung-sk%E2%80%AFhynix-reportedly-tapped-as-nvidia-rubin-hbm4-suppliers-shipments-could-start-in-march/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SK Hynix begins shipment of HBM4 to NVIDIA for Rubin platform"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "UBS forecasts SK Hynix 70% HBM4 share for NVIDIA Rubin",
      "source": "Semicone / UBS — SK Hynix HBM4 share research",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.semicone.com/article-385.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "UBS or peer publishes research showing SK Hynix achieving ~70% share of NVIDIA HBM4 procurement"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-03",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-18",
      "observe
... (truncated)