Samsung will produce 150,000 wafers/month in sub-7nm processes by 2026, serving as critical secondary Western supplier.

Samsung will produce 150,000 wafers/month in sub-7nm processes by 2026, serving as critical secondary Western supplier. | Samsung 2nm yield + customer-win disclosures

Key catalyst: Samsung 2nm yield + customer-win disclosures

Watch events: Samsung 2nm GAA yield disclosures; foundry customer wins (Qualcomm, Tesla Dojo, etc.)

Samsung Foundry 2nm node targeted for 2025, ramping 2026. Hwaseong P3 + Pyeongtaek P3 lines expanding sub-7nm capacity per Samsung disclosures.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (4)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "150K wafers/mo sub-7nm",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Analyst",
  "context": "Samsung sub-7nm projection ~150K wpm (including ~50K at 3nm) = meaningful secondary supplier to Western-aligned compute infrastructure.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "conv_cues": "expected; bolsters supply chain",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-22",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-15",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Samsung 2nm yields reach 55-60% commercially viable level",
      "source": "https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/11/25/news-samsung-reportedly-hits-55-60-2nm-yields-eyeing-an-edge-through-early-gaa-deployment/ — Samsung 2nm yields 55-60%",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-17",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-30T22:15:00.756418+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "TrendForce or Samsung confirms 2nm GAA yields at 55-60% sustained level — commercially viable for AI accelerator and SoC customers"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-06",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Samsung 2nm foundry capacity scales to 100K wpm in 2026",
      "source": "https://www.lambdafin.com/articles/semiconductor-wafer-starts — Samsung 2nm capacity 40K wpm scaling to 100K in 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "TrendForce, DigiTimes, or Samsung disclosure confirms Samsung 2nm production capacity reaches 100K wafers per month during 2026 ramp"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Samsung wins major Western customer (AMD, Qualcomm, Tesla, or hyperscaler) for sub-7nm production",
      "source": "https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2025/07/samsung-versus-tsmc-versus-intel.html — Samsung vs TSMC vs Intel competitive position",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Samsung secures publicly disclosed major Western customer for sub-7nm wafer commitments — confirming 'critical secondary supplier' role thesis"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Samsung will produce 150,000 wafers/month in sub-7nm processes by 2026, serving as critical secondary Western supplier.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weig
... (truncated)