238_044predictionBiotech/LongevityAI-timing

Mouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon Systems

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source

Prior probability

50.0%

Current probability

31.7%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30

Edges in / out

4 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Mouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon Systems | I think history will say that this weekend, the weekend of Abundant Summit 2026, was the moment when the first model organism had an entire brain uploaded. So, what's next? A mouse.

Watch events: Neuralink human trial enrollment; first commercial BCI

Verbatim quote

From episode "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238"

I think history will say that this weekend, the weekend of Abundant Summit 2026, was the moment when the first model organism had an entire brain uploaded. So, what's next? A mouse.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.844

Brier

0.0341

excellent

Hits / Misses

6 / 1

of 11 resolved

Hit rate

54.5%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 31.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 3 pending

2026-03-15hitEon Systems demonstrates whole-fly multi-behavior emulation
How: Eon Systems publishes embodied whole-brain emulation of Drosophila producing multiple behaviors closing perception-action loop
Source: https://eon.systems/updates/first-multi-behavior-brain-uploadconf 99%
2026-05-29overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-06-28pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
2026-04-01 → 2026-09-30pendingEon publishes Nature/bioRxiv paper on fly-brain emulation
How: Eon Systems researchers publish peer-reviewed paper detailing whole-brain emulation results
Source: https://magazine.mindplex.ai/post/whole-brain-emulation-drives-simulated-fly-behaviorsconf 65%
2026-07-28pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-08-27pendingMouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon Systems
2026-05-01 → 2026-12-31pendingEon announces mouse-brain connectome target with timeline
How: Eon Systems publishes formal roadmap or partnership announcement for mouse brain (~70M neurons) emulation effort with target year
Source: https://eon.systems/conf 60%
2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingMouse connectome generation funding round announced
How: Eon or partners (Allen Institute, MICrONS) announce dedicated funding for mouse whole-brain connectome generation >=$50M
Source: Industry funding databases; Allen Institute pressconf 55%
2027-06-01 → 2029-12-31pendingFirst mouse brain region (e.g., visual cortex) emulated end-to-end
How: Eon or competitor demonstrates end-to-end emulation of a complete mouse brain region (visual cortex, hippocampus) producing behavioral output
Source: Allen Institute publications; Eon Systemsconf 40%
Notes: Mouse is 560x fly neuron count. Full mouse-brain emulation likely beyond 2026; partial regions are nearer-term.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 32%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-06T22:10:11Z31.7%-7.8pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.317 blend=0.317 LLR=-0.342 κ=0.84 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.8227862462448079,
  "kappa": 0.8438,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.427089718361602,
  "bayes_factor": "1.4:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.39482149365513025,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8438,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.3421314582216691,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-29",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.42404962762863446,
  "outside_weight": 0.5759503723713655,
  "posterior_prob": 0.3166476054838524,
  "posterior_logit": -0.769221176583271,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03413,
  "inside_posterior": 0.3166476054838524,
  "blended_posterior": 0.3166476054838524,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.3421314582216691,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 11
}

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z39.5%-1.8pp

Network propagation: 41.3% → 39.5%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z41.3%-3.7pp

Network propagation: 45.0% → 41.3%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z45.0%-1.7pp

Network propagation: 46.7% → 45.0%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.7%-3.3pp

Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.7%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	10.0%	0.050	0.500	+0.138
killer	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	15.0%	0.050	0.500	+0.116
killer	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	20.0%	0.050	0.500	+0.093
prereq	S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026 Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026	40.0%	0.500	0.050	-0.087

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUN CRWV SITM NVDA ARM GTLB BBAI TSM APLD CEVA AI MSFT MRVL SFTBY ORCL QCOM AVGO BABA AMD GOOGL IBM AMZN META

Adverse (6)

WNS CHGG CTSH IBM INFY ACN

Prerequisites (4)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026	Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026	humanoid_deployment	—
killer	TK14	Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	—
killer	TK01	AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	—
killer	TK03	AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Linked documents (3)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.641	arxiv	Neural-Behavioral Representation of Natural Whole-body Movement in Monkeys	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-28
0.636	manifold	Hummingbird connectome by EOY2032	31%	mentions	pending	2026-05-25
0.552	polymarket	LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	71%	mentions	pending	2026-05-02

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

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  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "I think history will say that this weekend, the weekend of Abundant Summit 2026, was the moment when the first model organism had an entire brain uploaded. So, what's next? A mouse. Yeah.",
  "verbatim": "I think history will say that this weekend, the weekend of Abundant Summit 2026, was the moment when the first model organism had an entire brain uploaded. So, what's next? A mouse.",
  "conv_cues": "next",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Next",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
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      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Eon Systems demonstrates whole-fly multi-behavior emulation",
      "source": "https://eon.systems/updates/first-multi-behavior-brain-upload",
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      "expected_date": "2026-03-15",
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      "expected_date": "2026-05-29",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-06T22:10:11.421432+00:00",
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      "ordinal": -1,
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      "expected_date": "2026-07-28",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Mouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon Systems",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "238_044",
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      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
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      "confidence": 0.6,
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... (truncated)