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236_028predictionConsumerAI-timing

AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately

Predictor: Andrew Yang · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
50.8%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately | I see this trend unfortunately growing um more and more and I I wish it were otherwise.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236"
I see this trend unfortunately growing um more and more and I I wish it were otherwise.

Predictor: Andrew Yang

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0178
excellent
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
0.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Andrew Yang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 50.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 8 fired ✓
  1. 2025-07-16hit72% of US teens have tried an AI companion
    How: Common Sense Media or comparable survey shows ≥70% of US teens have used AI companions like Character.AI/Replika/ChatGPT
    Source: https://www.axios.com/2025/07/16/ai-bot-companions-teens-common-sense-mediaconf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Common Sense Media reports 72% of US teens have tried AI companions.
  2. 2025-07-31hitAI companion app downloads cross 220M cumulative
    How: AI companion apps record 220M+ cumulative downloads on Apple/Google stores
    Source: https://electroiq.com/stats/ai-companions-statistics/conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — 220M cumulative downloads as of July 2025; downloads up 88% YoY.
  3. 2026-01-12hitMIT Technology Review names AI companions a breakthrough technology
    How: MIT Technology Review designates AI companions in annual breakthrough technology list
    Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/01/12/1130018/ai-companions-chatbots-relationships-2026-breakthrough-technology/conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Listed in MIT TR's 10 Breakthrough Technologies 2026.
  4. 2026-12-31pendingAI companion market hits $500B+ size
    How: Industry reports estimate global AI Companion market ≥$500B in 2026
    Source: https://electroiq.com/stats/ai-companions-statistics/conf 70%
    Notes: Forecast: $501B in 2026 per ElectroIQ stats.
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingRegulatory backlash and harm-reduction laws emerge
    How: At least 3 US states or EU pass laws specifically restricting AI companion services for minors or mandating safety guardrails
    Source: APA reports, state legislative trackersconf 55%
  6. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 51%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z50.8%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 51.9% → 50.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z51.9%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 53.7% → 51.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z53.7%-2.5pp
Network propagation: 56.2% → 53.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z56.2%-3.8pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 56.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6000.050-0.057
prereq235_038
David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trialPeter Diamandis
74.0%0.6000.050-0.055
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6000.050-0.049
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6000.050-0.039
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.037

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050+0.013
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050+0.012
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.008
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050+0.008
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.006

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-Politician",
  "context": "So, uh, like this trend is playing out in my household. Um that this is part of my sadness for the death of partying. Um because uh you know like if if you're at home on your screen uh it's hard to meet a girl and um easy to meet an AI chatbot because AI chatbots right there. Um so uh I see this trend unfortunately growing um more and more",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "I see this trend unfortunately growing um more and more and I I wish it were otherwise.",
  "conv_cues": "unfortunately growing",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Ongoing",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "72% of US teens have tried an AI companion",
      "notes": "HIT — Common Sense Media reports 72% of US teens have tried AI companions.",
      "source": "https://www.axios.com/2025/07/16/ai-bot-companions-teens-common-sense-media",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2025/07/16/ai-bot-companions-teens-common-sense-media",
      "expected_date": "2025-07-16",
      "observed_date": "2025-07-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Common Sense Media or comparable survey shows ≥70% of US teens have used AI companions like Character.AI/Replika/ChatGPT"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI companion app downloads cross 220M cumulative",
      "notes": "HIT — 220M cumulative downloads as of July 2025; downloads up 88% YoY.",
      "source": "https://electroiq.com/stats/ai-companions-statistics/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://electroiq.com/stats/ai-companions-statistics/",
      "expected_date": "2025-07-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-07-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "AI companion apps record 220M+ cumulative downloads on Apple/Google stores"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "MIT Technology Review names AI companions a breakthrough technology",
      "notes": "HIT — Listed in MIT TR's 10 Breakthrough Technologies 2026.",
      "source": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/01/12/1130018/ai-companions-chatbots-relationships-2026-breakthrough-technology/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/01/12/1130018/ai-companions-chatbots-relationships-2026-breakthrough-technology/",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-12",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-12",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "MIT Technology Review designates AI companions in annual breakthrough technology list"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
... (truncated)