AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately
Predictor: Andrew Yang · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source
Prediction text
AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately | I see this trend unfortunately growing um more and more and I I wish it were otherwise.
Verbatim quote
I see this trend unfortunately growing um more and more and I I wish it were otherwise.
Predictor: Andrew Yang
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Andrew Yang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-07-16hit72% of US teens have tried an AI companionHow: Common Sense Media or comparable survey shows ≥70% of US teens have used AI companions like Character.AI/Replika/ChatGPTSource: https://www.axios.com/2025/07/16/ai-bot-companions-teens-common-sense-mediaconf 99%Notes: HIT — Common Sense Media reports 72% of US teens have tried AI companions.
- 2025-07-31hitAI companion app downloads cross 220M cumulativeHow: AI companion apps record 220M+ cumulative downloads on Apple/Google storesSource: https://electroiq.com/stats/ai-companions-statistics/conf 99%Notes: HIT — 220M cumulative downloads as of July 2025; downloads up 88% YoY.
- 2026-01-12hitMIT Technology Review names AI companions a breakthrough technologyHow: MIT Technology Review designates AI companions in annual breakthrough technology listSource: https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/01/12/1130018/ai-companions-chatbots-relationships-2026-breakthrough-technology/conf 99%Notes: HIT — Listed in MIT TR's 10 Breakthrough Technologies 2026.
- 2026-12-31pendingAI companion market hits $500B+ sizeHow: Industry reports estimate global AI Companion market ≥$500B in 2026Source: https://electroiq.com/stats/ai-companions-statistics/conf 70%Notes: Forecast: $501B in 2026 per ElectroIQ stats.
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingRegulatory backlash and harm-reduction laws emergeHow: At least 3 US states or EU pass laws specifically restricting AI companion services for minors or mandating safety guardrailsSource: APA reports, state legislative trackersconf 55%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.057 |
| prereq | 235_038 David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trial — Peter Diamandis | 74.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.055 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.049 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.039 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.037 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.013 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.012 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.008 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.008 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.006 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-Politician",
"context": "So, uh, like this trend is playing out in my household. Um that this is part of my sadness for the death of partying. Um because uh you know like if if you're at home on your screen uh it's hard to meet a girl and um easy to meet an AI chatbot because AI chatbots right there. Um so uh I see this trend unfortunately growing um more and more",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "I see this trend unfortunately growing um more and more and I I wish it were otherwise.",
"conv_cues": "unfortunately growing",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "Ongoing",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "72% of US teens have tried an AI companion",
"notes": "HIT — Common Sense Media reports 72% of US teens have tried AI companions.",
"source": "https://www.axios.com/2025/07/16/ai-bot-companions-teens-common-sense-media",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2025/07/16/ai-bot-companions-teens-common-sense-media",
"expected_date": "2025-07-16",
"observed_date": "2025-07-16",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Common Sense Media or comparable survey shows ≥70% of US teens have used AI companions like Character.AI/Replika/ChatGPT"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "AI companion app downloads cross 220M cumulative",
"notes": "HIT — 220M cumulative downloads as of July 2025; downloads up 88% YoY.",
"source": "https://electroiq.com/stats/ai-companions-statistics/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://electroiq.com/stats/ai-companions-statistics/",
"expected_date": "2025-07-31",
"observed_date": "2025-07-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "AI companion apps record 220M+ cumulative downloads on Apple/Google stores"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "MIT Technology Review names AI companions a breakthrough technology",
"notes": "HIT — Listed in MIT TR's 10 Breakthrough Technologies 2026.",
"source": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/01/12/1130018/ai-companions-chatbots-relationships-2026-breakthrough-technology/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/01/12/1130018/ai-companions-chatbots-relationships-2026-breakthrough-technology/",
"expected_date": "2026-01-12",
"observed_date": "2026-01-12",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "MIT Technology Review designates AI companions in annual breakthrough technology list"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
... (truncated)