US GDP per capita growing up up up because of AI

US GDP per capita growing up up up because of AI | GDP right now is around $84,000 ahead. Uh it's going up up up because of AI.

GDP right now is around $84,000 ahead. Uh it's going up up up because of AI.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (7)

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  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Guest-Politician",
  "context": "GDP right now is around $84,000 ahead. Uh it's going up up up because of AI.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "GDP right now is around $84,000 ahead. Uh it's going up up up because of AI.",
  "conv_cues": "going up up up",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "St. Louis Fed AI-contribution-to-GDP nowcast Jan 2026",
      "notes": "HIT — but Fed analysis showed AI 15% of Q2/Q3 2025 GDP growth and <5% of GDP overall — softens 'up up up because of AI' framing. Productivity gains still pending.",
      "source": "St. Louis Fed — Tracking AI's Contribution to GDP Growth",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jan/tracking-ai-contribution-gdp-growth",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "St Louis Fed publishes AI-contribution-to-GDP analysis quantifying AI capex share"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "BEA real GDP per capita Q1 2026 prints",
      "notes": "Print due late April / May 2026 — directly observable comparison vs 2025 print.",
      "source": "FRED A939RX0Q048SBEA / BEA news release",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-12",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-30T22:15:00.756418+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-05-30",
        "from": "2026-04-25"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "BEA advance/second estimate of Q1 2026 real GDP per capita posted on FRED A939RX0Q048SBEA"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "US GDP per capita growing up up up because of AI",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "236_049",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI-related capex categories rank top-2 driver of US GDP growth in any quarter",
      "notes": "HIT — AI capex was #2 driver after consumption; Q1 IPE contribution 0.90pp (above dot-com peak).",
      "source": "CNBC — AI spending wasn't biggest engine of US GDP growth in 2025",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/26/ai-wasnt-the-biggest-engine-of-us-gdp-growth-in-2025.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-02",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-26",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "AI-linked categories (info processing equipment + software) rank #1 or #2 contributor to quarterly real GDP growth in BEA decomposition"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "US nominal GDP per capita crosses $90,000 in 2026",
      "notes": "Yang's stated $84K aligns with 2024-25 nominal; growth path puts 2026 at >$87K, not yet 'up up up'.",
      "source": "BusinessTats / BEA — US 2026 GDP $29T figures imply ~$87-90K per capita",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "source_url": "https://businesstats.com/gdp-of-the-united-states/",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
... (truncated)