← Cockpit
244_007predictionReal EstateAI-timing

Vertiports will target airports and city centers as high-traffic locations

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#244 "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
46.6%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2030-12-31
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Vertiports will target airports and city centers as high-traffic locations | I think obviously airports or city centers or the size of cities are going to be targets, so to speak.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)"
I think obviously airports or city centers or the size of cities are going to be targets, so to speak.

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0105
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 46.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2026-03-30hitJoby clears FAA Stage 4 type certification (March 2026)
    How: FAA confirms Joby S4 Stage 4 conformity review complete
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
  2. 2026-03-31hitDubai International Airport vertiport completed (Q1 2026)
    How: Joby/RTA confirms Dubai vertiport operational at airport site
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingJFK and LAX vertiport facilities (Joby + Delta) reach permitting milestone
    How: Port Authority/LAWA approves Joby-Delta vertiport site permits at JFK and LAX
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 65%
  4. 2026-10-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFirst commercial paid eVTOL passenger flight in US
    How: Joby or competitor operates first revenue-generating passenger eVTOL flight under FAA Part 135
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2029-06-30pendingFive US airport-collocated vertiports operational
    How: Industry tracker reports >=5 commercial vertiports collocated at FAA-towered airports
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
  6. 2028-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingFirst major-city downtown vertiport operational (NYC/LA/Chicago/etc.)
    How: Permitted commercial vertiport operating in CBD of US top-15 metro outside an airport
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  7. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 47%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z46.6%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 47.7% → 46.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z47.7%-1.6pp
Network propagation: 49.3% → 47.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.3%-2.3pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 49.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5500.050-0.052
prereq235_038
David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trialPeter Diamandis
74.0%0.5500.050-0.050
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5500.050-0.045
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5500.050-0.036
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.034

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.031
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.021
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.017
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.008
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.007

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Linked documents (9)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.545polymarketIran closes its airspace by June 30?19%mentionspending2026-05-12
0.545polymarketIran closes its airspace by June 15?9%mentionspending2026-05-18
0.543polymarketIran closes its airspace by May 6?0%mentionspending2026-05-05
0.543polymarketIran closes its airspace by May 7?4%mentionspending2026-05-05
0.543polymarketIran closes its airspace by June 8?3%mentionspending2026-06-03
0.542polymarketIran closes its airspace by May 15?4%mentionspending2026-05-05
0.541polymarketIran closes its airspace by May 18?5%mentionspending2026-05-12
0.540polymarketIran closes its airspace by May 21?19%mentionspending2026-05-12
0.539polymarketIran closes its airspace by May 24?38%mentionspending2026-05-12

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "I think obviously airports or city centers or the size of cities are going to be targets, so to speak.",
  "verbatim": "I think obviously airports or city centers or the size of cities are going to be targets, so to speak.",
  "conv_cues": "I think obviously",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Joby clears FAA Stage 4 type certification (March 2026)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.aircraftinsider.com/joby-aviation-clears-faa-stage-4-certification-first-ever-commercial-evtol-certificate-now-within-reach/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "FAA confirms Joby S4 Stage 4 conformity review complete"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Dubai International Airport vertiport completed (Q1 2026)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://lowaltitudeeconomy.aero/evtol-news-and-electric-aircraft-news/advanced-air-mobility/future-vertical-aam-report-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Joby/RTA confirms Dubai vertiport operational at airport site"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "JFK and LAX vertiport facilities (Joby + Delta) reach permitting milestone",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.flyingmag.com/joby-passenger-air-taxi-service-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Port Authority/LAWA approves Joby
... (truncated)