Vertiports will target airports and city centers as high-traffic locations
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#244 "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)" · source
Prediction text
Vertiports will target airports and city centers as high-traffic locations | I think obviously airports or city centers or the size of cities are going to be targets, so to speak.
Verbatim quote
I think obviously airports or city centers or the size of cities are going to be targets, so to speak.
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-03-30hitJoby clears FAA Stage 4 type certification (March 2026)How: FAA confirms Joby S4 Stage 4 conformity review completeSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
- 2026-03-31hitDubai International Airport vertiport completed (Q1 2026)How: Joby/RTA confirms Dubai vertiport operational at airport siteSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingJFK and LAX vertiport facilities (Joby + Delta) reach permitting milestoneHow: Port Authority/LAWA approves Joby-Delta vertiport site permits at JFK and LAXSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 65%
- 2026-10-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFirst commercial paid eVTOL passenger flight in USHow: Joby or competitor operates first revenue-generating passenger eVTOL flight under FAA Part 135Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
- 2027-06-01 → 2029-06-30pendingFive US airport-collocated vertiports operationalHow: Industry tracker reports >=5 commercial vertiports collocated at FAA-towered airportsSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
- 2028-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingFirst major-city downtown vertiport operational (NYC/LA/Chicago/etc.)How: Permitted commercial vertiport operating in CBD of US top-15 metro outside an airportSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.052 |
| prereq | 235_038 David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trial — Peter Diamandis | 74.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.045 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.036 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.034 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.031 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.021 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.017 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.008 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.007 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
Linked documents (9)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.545 | polymarket | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | 19% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-12 |
| 0.545 | polymarket | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | 9% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-18 |
| 0.543 | polymarket | Iran closes its airspace by May 6? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.543 | polymarket | Iran closes its airspace by May 7? | 4% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.543 | polymarket | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | 3% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
| 0.542 | polymarket | Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | 4% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.541 | polymarket | Iran closes its airspace by May 18? | 5% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-12 |
| 0.540 | polymarket | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | 19% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-12 |
| 0.539 | polymarket | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | 38% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-12 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "I think obviously airports or city centers or the size of cities are going to be targets, so to speak.",
"verbatim": "I think obviously airports or city centers or the size of cities are going to be targets, so to speak.",
"conv_cues": "I think obviously",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Unspecified future",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Joby clears FAA Stage 4 type certification (March 2026)",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.aircraftinsider.com/joby-aviation-clears-faa-stage-4-certification-first-ever-commercial-evtol-certificate-now-within-reach/",
"expected_date": "2026-03-30",
"observed_date": "2026-03-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "FAA confirms Joby S4 Stage 4 conformity review complete"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Dubai International Airport vertiport completed (Q1 2026)",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://lowaltitudeeconomy.aero/evtol-news-and-electric-aircraft-news/advanced-air-mobility/future-vertical-aam-report-2026",
"expected_date": "2026-03-31",
"observed_date": "2026-03-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Joby/RTA confirms Dubai vertiport operational at airport site"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "235_038",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "JFK and LAX vertiport facilities (Joby + Delta) reach permitting milestone",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.65,
"source_url": "https://www.flyingmag.com/joby-passenger-air-taxi-service-2026/",
"expected_date": "2026-12-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-06-30",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Port Authority/LAWA approves Joby
... (truncated)