AI will soon make very good venture capital investment decisions

AI will soon make very good venture capital investment decisions | we're very close to having the AI make very, very good venture investment decisions and, you know, we still obviously double check and triple check and there's a huge human component, but I just can't believe how good it is.

we're very close to having the AI make very, very good venture investment decisions and, you know, we still obviously double check and triple check and there's a huge human component, but I just can't believe how good it is.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "still requires human oversight",
  "context": "we're very close to having the AI make very, very good venture investment decisions and, you know, we still obviously double check and triple check and there's a huge human component, but I just can't believe how good it is.",
  "verbatim": "we're very close to having the AI make very, very good venture investment decisions and, you know, we still obviously double check and triple check and there's a huge human component, but I just can't believe how good it is.",
  "conv_cues": "very close",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Very near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "85% of VCs use AI for daily tasks — survey confirms automation penetration",
      "notes": "HIT — 85% of VCs already using AI to automate daily tasks per 2026 survey",
      "source": "https://www.affinity.co/guides/vc-ai-tools",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.affinity.co/guides/vc-ai-tools",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Industry survey (e.g. Affinity, PitchBook) shows ≥85% of VC GPs use AI for daily tasks and ≥80% for deal sourcing"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Sequoia / a16z announces formal AI-augmented investment committee process",
      "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/16/new-leaders-new-fund-sequoia-has-raised-7b-to-expand-its-ai-bets/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/16/new-leaders-new-fund-sequoia-has-raised-7b-to-expand-its-ai-bets/",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Top-quartile VC firm (Sequoia, a16z, Benchmark, Founders Fund) publicly discloses AI as formal IC input mechanism"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-04-13",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Rowspace (AI for VC) reaches Series B / $1B+ valuation",
      "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/02/25/rowspace-sequoia-ai-financial-platform-private-equity-investment-venture-capital/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://fortune.com/2026/02/25/rowspace-sequoia-ai-financial-platform-private-equity-investment-venture-capital/",
      "expected_date": "2027-05-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Rowspace closes Series B at ≥$1B valuation following $50M Sequoia-led Series A in Feb 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-10-04",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "First AI-led VC fund publicly reports portfolio out
... (truncated)