NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence.

NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. | Vera Rubin → Feynman product milestones

Key catalyst: Vera Rubin → Feynman product milestones

Watch events: Vera Rubin sampling; Vera Rubin Ultra tape-out; Feynman disclosures.

Blackwell shipped 2025 as planned; Vera Rubin samples disclosed 2026; Vera Rubin Ultra and Feynman named on public roadmap.

Beneficiaries (22)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "annual cadence",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "caveats": "Execution risk at every node; TSMC advanced-node capacity is binding constraint.",
  "context": "Compressed cadence vs historical 2-3 year cycles; forces hyperscalers into perpetual refresh to maintain lowest cost per token.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "conv_cues": "explicit named roadmap; CEO",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2025,
  "timeframe": "2025-2028",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Blackwell B200 / GB200 NVL72 generally available (2025 cohort)",
      "source": "https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/nvidia-announces-rubin-gpus-in-2026-rubin-ultra-in-2027-feynam-after",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "expected_date": "2025-07-02",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2025-12-31",
        "from": "2025-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "NVIDIA + hyperscalers publicly confirm GB200 NVL72 systems in commercial production / customer deployment"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-09-21",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "GTC 2026: Rosa CPU (successor to Vera) announced; Feynman 3D-stacked GPU details disclosed",
      "source": "https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/nvidia-updates-data-center-roadmap-with-rosa-cpu-and-stacked-feynman-gpus-optical-nvlink-groq-lpus-with-nvfp4-and-nvlink-also-on-deck",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-04-30",
        "from": "2026-03-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "NVIDIA at GTC 2026 publicly announces Rosa CPU successor and updated Feynman roadmap details"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-11",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Vera Rubin NVL144 launch (2026): 3.6 EFLOPS FP4, 1.2 EFLOPS FP8 inference/training",
      "source": "https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2025/03/nvidia-ultra-rubin-and-feynman-chips-and-data-center-roadmap.html",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "expected_date": "2026-09-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "NVIDIA publicly ships Vera Rubin NVL144 with confirmed FP4 ≥3.6 EFLOPS / FP8 ≥1.2 EFLOPS specs"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-01",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Rubin Ultra (2027): SXM8 with 4 reticle-limited GPU chiplets, 100 PFLOPS FP4, 1TB HBM4E",
      "source": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/nvid
... (truncated)