Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI
Predictor: Kevin Weil · ep#234 "Anthropic vs. The Pentagon, Claude Outpaces ChatGPT, and Consulting Gets Replaced" · source
Prediction text
Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI | his ambition is the next 100 Nobel prizes being issued in partnership with AI.
Verbatim quote
his ambition is the next 100 Nobel prizes being issued in partnership with AI.
Predictor: Kevin Weil
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Kevin Weil is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-17hitKevin Weil departs OpenAI — original 100-Nobels champion exits, OpenAI for Science decentralizedHow: Public departure announced on Weil's X account + TechCrunch coverage April 17, 2026Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
- 2026-10-20pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingOpenAI for Science 'Prism' general availability or successor product launchHow: Public general-access launch of Prism or its successor scientific tooling, post-decentralizationSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
- 2027-04-12pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-09-01 → 2028-03-31pendingFirst peer-reviewed Nobel-class result published with explicit AI co-attributionHow: Top-journal paper (Nature/Science/Cell or equivalent) with AI tool listed in methods as primary discovery driver; lead authors publicly nominate it as Nobel-gradeSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
- 2027-10-03pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2027-10-01 → 2029-03-31pendingNobel ceremony explicitly cites AI partnership in award rationaleHow: Nobel committee announcement (Chemistry/Medicine/Physics) names a specific AI system or collaboration as integral to the prizeSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 30%
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | 35.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.171 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.076 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.054 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.031 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (4)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_MID_2029 | AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (6)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.651 | polymarket | Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1% | mentions | pending | 2025-10-15 |
| 0.643 | polymarket | Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1% | mentions | pending | 2025-10-15 |
| 0.621 | polymarket | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 11% | mentions | pending | 2025-10-15 |
| 0.612 | manifold | Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize? | 32% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-27 |
| 0.581 | manifold | Will isaak freeman become a nobel laureate? | 28% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.565 | manifold | Will abhishaike mahajan ever win the nobel prize? | 28% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "100 Nobel prizes",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmtvGKuRE64",
"mode": "ASPIRATION",
"role": "Cited-Executive",
"context": "You know, I just had a conversation with Kevin Wheel, uh, who's now the VP of science at OpenAI, uh, getting ready for the Abundance Summit coming up. Kevin will be, uh, will be on stage talking about this. And we're just talking about, you know, his ambition is the next 100 Nobel prizes being issued in partnership with AI.",
"cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
"verbatim": "his ambition is the next 100 Nobel prizes being issued in partnership with AI.",
"conv_cues": "ambition",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Unspecified future",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Kevin Weil departs OpenAI — original 100-Nobels champion exits, OpenAI for Science decentralized",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/17/openai-executives-leave.html",
"expected_date": "2026-04-17",
"observed_date": "2026-04-17",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Public departure announced on Weil's X account + TechCrunch coverage April 17, 2026"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-10-20",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "OpenAI for Science 'Prism' general availability or successor product launch",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.45,
"source_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2cBTVr8nxU",
"expected_date": "2026-12-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-06-30",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Public general-access launch of Prism or its successor scientific tooling, post-decentralization"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2027-04-12",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First peer-reviewed Nobel-class result published with explicit AI co-attribution",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.4,
"source_url": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/01/26/1131728/inside-openais-big-play-for-science/",
"expected_date": "2027-06-16",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-03-31",
"from": "2026-09-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Top-journal paper (Nature/Science/Cell or equivalent) with AI tool listed in methods as primary discovery driver; lead authors publicly nominate it as Nobel-grade"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2027-10-03",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "234_007",
"expected_date": "2028-03-25",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
"label": "Nobel ceremony explicitly cites AI part
... (truncated)