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234_007predictionAIAI-timing

Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI

Predictor: Kevin Weil · ep#234 "Anthropic vs. The Pentagon, Claude Outpaces ChatGPT, and Consulting Gets Replaced" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
37.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
D
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31
Edges in / out
4 / 0
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI | his ambition is the next 100 Nobel prizes being issued in partnership with AI.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Anthropic vs. The Pentagon, Claude Outpaces ChatGPT, and Consulting Gets Replaced"
his ambition is the next 100 Nobel prizes being issued in partnership with AI.

Predictor: Kevin Weil

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0200
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Kevin Weil is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 37.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 5 pending
  1. 2026-04-17hitKevin Weil departs OpenAI — original 100-Nobels champion exits, OpenAI for Science decentralized
    How: Public departure announced on Weil's X account + TechCrunch coverage April 17, 2026
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
  2. 2026-10-20pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingOpenAI for Science 'Prism' general availability or successor product launch
    How: Public general-access launch of Prism or its successor scientific tooling, post-decentralization
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
  4. 2027-04-12pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  5. 2026-09-01 → 2028-03-31pendingFirst peer-reviewed Nobel-class result published with explicit AI co-attribution
    How: Top-journal paper (Nature/Science/Cell or equivalent) with AI tool listed in methods as primary discovery driver; lead authors publicly nominate it as Nobel-grade
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  6. 2027-10-03pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  7. 2027-10-01 → 2029-03-31pendingNobel ceremony explicitly cites AI partnership in award rationale
    How: Nobel committee announcement (Chemistry/Medicine/Physics) names a specific AI system or collaboration as integral to the prize
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 30%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 38%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z37.9%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 38.9% → 37.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z38.9%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 40.9% → 38.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z40.9%-4.1pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 40.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z45.0%-1.7pp
Network propagation: 46.7% → 45.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.7%-3.3pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_AGI_MID_2029
AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path
35.0%0.5000.050-0.171
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.500+0.076
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.500+0.054
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.500+0.031

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (4)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqS_AGI_MID_2029AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 pathagi_general_capability
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (6)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.651polymarketWill Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?1%mentionspending2025-10-15
0.643polymarketWill Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?1%mentionspending2025-10-15
0.621polymarketWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?11%mentionspending2025-10-15
0.612manifoldWill Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?32%mentionspending2026-05-27
0.581manifoldWill isaak freeman become a nobel laureate?28%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.565manifoldWill abhishaike mahajan ever win the nobel prize?28%mentionspending2026-05-04

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "100 Nobel prizes",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmtvGKuRE64",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "You know, I just had a conversation with Kevin Wheel, uh, who's now the VP of science at OpenAI, uh, getting ready for the Abundance Summit coming up. Kevin will be, uh, will be on stage talking about this. And we're just talking about, you know, his ambition is the next 100 Nobel prizes being issued in partnership with AI.",
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "his ambition is the next 100 Nobel prizes being issued in partnership with AI.",
  "conv_cues": "ambition",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Kevin Weil departs OpenAI — original 100-Nobels champion exits, OpenAI for Science decentralized",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/17/openai-executives-leave.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-17",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public departure announced on Weil's X account + TechCrunch coverage April 17, 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI for Science 'Prism' general availability or successor product launch",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2cBTVr8nxU",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Public general-access launch of Prism or its successor scientific tooling, post-decentralization"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-04-12",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First peer-reviewed Nobel-class result published with explicit AI co-attribution",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/01/26/1131728/inside-openais-big-play-for-science/",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-03-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Top-journal paper (Nature/Science/Cell or equivalent) with AI tool listed in methods as primary discovery driver; lead authors publicly nominate it as Nobel-grade"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-10-03",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "234_007",
      "expected_date": "2028-03-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Nobel ceremony explicitly cites AI part
... (truncated)