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236_040predictionLabor/JobsAI-timing

CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation

Predictor: Andrew Yang · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
42.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31
Edges in / out
9 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation | I I think that in most um places the CEO will be the last to go. um and this is within private companies and public companies.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236"
I I think that in most um places the CEO will be the last to go. um and this is within private companies and public companies.

Predictor: Andrew Yang

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0178
excellent
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
0.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Andrew Yang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 42.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 5 pending
  1. 2026-06-01 → 2027-09-30pendingNumber of S&P 500 CEOs publicly citing AI as reason for own/peer departure crosses 10
    How: Cumulative count of S&P 500 CEO departures with explicit AI-transition rationale exceeds 10; tracked via 8-K filings + Business Chief / AI Magazine roundups
    Source: Business Chief: high-profile AI-driven CEO resignations 2026; Adobe/Walmart citedconf 70%
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingConference Board / WEF report explicitly ranks CEO role as latest-to-automate
    How: Recognized think-tank publication includes occupation-by-occupation automation timeline placing CEO/exec leadership in lowest decile of automation risk by 2030
    Source: Conference Board 'AI and the C-Suite: Implications for CEO Strategy 2026'conf 65%
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2028-01-31pendingMid/junior management automation rate exceeds CEO automation rate in BLS or McKinsey study
    How: Published occupation-displacement table where 'first-line supervisor' and 'middle manager' net-job-loss is materially higher than 'chief executive' category
    Source: WillRobotsTakeMyJob 'Will Chief Executives be replaced'conf 70%
  4. 2026-09-01 → 2028-01-31pendingFirst public-listed company appoints AI as named co-CEO or 'AI CEO' role
    How: 8-K or press release naming an AI system as titled co-CEO/AI-CEO at a public company; would be major counter-evidence to claim
    Source: Workplace Intelligence 'Could AI Replace the C-Suite?' coverageconf 30%
  5. 2027-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingIf middle-management displacement >25% but CEO turnover normal by Q4 2027, claim hits early
    How: BLS occupation report shows >25% job loss in middle-management categories while chief-executive employment remains within +/-5% of 2025 baseline
    Source: Goldman Sachs labor-market AI displacement frameworkconf 55%
  6. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 42%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z42.5%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 43.6% → 42.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z43.6%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 45.6% → 43.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z45.6%-3.6pp
Network propagation: 49.3% → 45.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.3%-2.3pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 49.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_AGI_MID_2029
AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path
35.0%0.5500.050-0.200
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.075
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.550+0.050
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.550+0.025
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.5500.050+0.011

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.055
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.049
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.041
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.029
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.028

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (9)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqS_AGI_MID_2029AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 pathagi_general_capability
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Linked documents (5)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.603manifoldWill Biden, Trump, Putin, or Xi die last?mentionspending2026-05-18
0.572polymarketWill Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?2%mentionspending2026-03-24
0.565polymarketWill Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?0%mentionspending2026-04-16
0.564manifoldWill I place last in Masters Season 37?27%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.564manifoldWill Brightline shut down its Florida operations by the end of this year?28%mentionspending2026-05-04

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-Politician",
  "context": "I I think that in most um places the CEO will be the last to go. um and this is within private companies and public companies. Um and one reason why um CEOs are expensive um is because you kind of need someone.",
  "verbatim": "I I think that in most um places the CEO will be the last to go. um and this is within private companies and public companies.",
  "conv_cues": "I think",
  "direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Number of S&P 500 CEOs publicly citing AI as reason for own/peer departure crosses 10",
      "source": "Business Chief: high-profile AI-driven CEO resignations 2026; Adobe/Walmart cited",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://businesschief.com/news/is-ai-behind-recent-high-profile-ceo-resignations",
      "expected_date": "2027-01-30",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-09-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Cumulative count of S&P 500 CEO departures with explicit AI-transition rationale exceeds 10; tracked via 8-K filings + Business Chief / AI Magazine roundups"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Conference Board / WEF report explicitly ranks CEO role as latest-to-automate",
      "source": "Conference Board 'AI and the C-Suite: Implications for CEO Strategy 2026'",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/ai-and-the-c-suite-implications-for-ceo-strategy-in-2026",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
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      "measurement_criterion": "Recognized think-tank publication includes occupation-by-occupation automation timeline placing CEO/exec leadership in lowest decile of automation risk by 2030"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Mid/junior m
... (truncated)