CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation
Predictor: Andrew Yang · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source
Prediction text
CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation | I I think that in most um places the CEO will be the last to go. um and this is within private companies and public companies.
Verbatim quote
I I think that in most um places the CEO will be the last to go. um and this is within private companies and public companies.
Predictor: Andrew Yang
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Andrew Yang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-09-30pendingNumber of S&P 500 CEOs publicly citing AI as reason for own/peer departure crosses 10How: Cumulative count of S&P 500 CEO departures with explicit AI-transition rationale exceeds 10; tracked via 8-K filings + Business Chief / AI Magazine roundupsSource: Business Chief: high-profile AI-driven CEO resignations 2026; Adobe/Walmart citedconf 70%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingConference Board / WEF report explicitly ranks CEO role as latest-to-automateHow: Recognized think-tank publication includes occupation-by-occupation automation timeline placing CEO/exec leadership in lowest decile of automation risk by 2030Source: Conference Board 'AI and the C-Suite: Implications for CEO Strategy 2026'conf 65%
- 2026-09-01 → 2028-01-31pendingMid/junior management automation rate exceeds CEO automation rate in BLS or McKinsey studyHow: Published occupation-displacement table where 'first-line supervisor' and 'middle manager' net-job-loss is materially higher than 'chief executive' categorySource: WillRobotsTakeMyJob 'Will Chief Executives be replaced'conf 70%
- 2026-09-01 → 2028-01-31pendingFirst public-listed company appoints AI as named co-CEO or 'AI CEO' roleHow: 8-K or press release naming an AI system as titled co-CEO/AI-CEO at a public company; would be major counter-evidence to claimSource: Workplace Intelligence 'Could AI Replace the C-Suite?' coverageconf 30%
- 2027-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingIf middle-management displacement >25% but CEO turnover normal by Q4 2027, claim hits earlyHow: BLS occupation report shows >25% job loss in middle-management categories while chief-executive employment remains within +/-5% of 2025 baselineSource: Goldman Sachs labor-market AI displacement frameworkconf 55%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | 35.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.200 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.075 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.050 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.025 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.011 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.055 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.049 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.041 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.029 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.028 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (9)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | S_AGI_MID_2029 | AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
Linked documents (5)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.603 | manifold | Will Biden, Trump, Putin, or Xi die last? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-18 |
| 0.572 | polymarket | Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? | 2% | mentions | pending | 2026-03-24 |
| 0.565 | polymarket | Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-16 |
| 0.564 | manifold | Will I place last in Masters Season 37? | 27% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.564 | manifold | Will Brightline shut down its Florida operations by the end of this year? | 28% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-Politician",
"context": "I I think that in most um places the CEO will be the last to go. um and this is within private companies and public companies. Um and one reason why um CEOs are expensive um is because you kind of need someone.",
"verbatim": "I I think that in most um places the CEO will be the last to go. um and this is within private companies and public companies.",
"conv_cues": "I think",
"direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Unspecified future",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
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},
{
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"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
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"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "235_038",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Number of S&P 500 CEOs publicly citing AI as reason for own/peer departure crosses 10",
"source": "Business Chief: high-profile AI-driven CEO resignations 2026; Adobe/Walmart cited",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"source_url": "https://businesschief.com/news/is-ai-behind-recent-high-profile-ceo-resignations",
"expected_date": "2027-01-30",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-09-30",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Cumulative count of S&P 500 CEO departures with explicit AI-transition rationale exceeds 10; tracked via 8-K filings + Business Chief / AI Magazine roundups"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Conference Board / WEF report explicitly ranks CEO role as latest-to-automate",
"source": "Conference Board 'AI and the C-Suite: Implications for CEO Strategy 2026'",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.65,
"source_url": "https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/ai-and-the-c-suite-implications-for-ceo-strategy-in-2026",
"expected_date": "2027-03-17",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Recognized think-tank publication includes occupation-by-occupation automation timeline placing CEO/exec leadership in lowest decile of automation risk by 2030"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Mid/junior m
... (truncated)