Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity.

Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity. | TSMC wafer-output + Nvidia DC revenue quarterly disclosures

Key catalyst: TSMC wafer-output + Nvidia DC revenue quarterly disclosures

Watch events: TSMC CoWoS packaging capacity utilization; Nvidia Data Center revenue disclosures

Blundin (workbook) prediction of Nvidia locking up 70%+ TSMC 3nm volume matches 800K+ figure directionally. TSMC Q4-2025 earnings emphasized AI-accelerator pre-orders 'multi-year visibility'.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (2)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "800-850K wafers reserved",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Analyst",
  "context": "Nvidia's single-year wafer reservation (800-850K) dwarfs SMIC's national advanced-node ceiling (100K). Monopolization of TSMC cutting-edge capacity.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "conv_cues": "preemptively reserved; 8x capacity",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NVIDIA confirmed booking 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026",
      "notes": "HIT — NVIDIA's 800-850K wafer booking for 2026 confirmed across multiple industry trade press citing TSMC supply-chain sources.",
      "source": "wccftech — NVIDIA Alone Has TSMC's Advanced Packaging Lines Booked for Several Years Ahead",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "source_url": "https://wccftech.com/nvidia-alone-has-tsmc-advanced-packaging-lines-booked-for-several-years-ahead/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-10",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-10",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "DigiTimes / wccftech / Astute Group reporting confirms NVIDIA reserved 800K-850K TSMC wafers for 2026 production"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "TSMC advanced chip capacity booked out through 2028 confirmed",
      "source": "Dataconomy — TSMC's Advanced Chip Capacity Is Booked Out Through 2028",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://dataconomy.com/2026/03/31/tsmcs-advanced-chip-capacity-is-booked-out-through-2028/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Dataconomy / TSMC corporate disclosures confirm advanced node capacity fully booked through 2028"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "TSMC 3nm and 5nm production fully booked for 2026",
      "source": "TweakTown — TSMC's entire 3nm and 5nm production expected to be 100% booked out in 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.tweaktown.com/news/107923/tsmcs-entire-3nm-and-5nm-production-expected-to-be-100-percent-booked-out-in-2026/index.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-31",

... (truncated)