245_008predictionBiotech/LongevityAI-timing

More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus

Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source

Prior probability

50.0%

Current probability

45.2%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

Resolution

partial

Window

2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31

Edges in / out

3 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus | we we will have more direwolves coming which we have announced.

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)"

we we will have more direwolves coming which we have announced.

Predictor: Ben Lamm

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.688

Brier

0.0043

excellent

Hits / Misses

2 / 0

of 3 resolved

Hit rate

66.7%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 45.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 2 fired ✓

2025-01-30hitKhaleesi (third direwolf, female) birth announcement
How: Colossal Biosciences announces birth of third de-extinct direwolf, distinct from Romulus and Remus
Source: Colossal Biosciences press release, BusinessWire, CRISPR Medicine News. Khaleesi born Jan 30, 2025 — confirmed.conf 99%
Notes: Already HIT — Khaleesi born Jan 30 2025 confirms 'more direwolves' beyond Romulus/Remus.
2025-10-01hitDirewolf pack social-development milestone (1-year birthday update)
How: Colossal publishes 1-year birthday update for Romulus & Remus showing pack hunting/socialization
Source: Colossal Biosciences blog, BusinessWire press release dated Oct 1 2025conf 99%
2026-04-30partialMore direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus
2026-04-30hitColossal announces new de-extinct species (bluebuck or other)
How: Colossal announces de-extinction work on additional non-direwolf species — bluebuck publicly announced via Axios on 2026-04-30
Source: https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/colossal-biosciences-species-extinction-bluebuck — Axios reporting on bluebuck announcementconf 99%
2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingColossal announces additional direwolves (4th-onwards)
How: Colossal announces a 4th, 5th, or further direwolf birth distinct from Romulus/Remus/Khaleesi
Source: Colossal press releases. Ben Lamm has stated 'more direwolves coming which we have announced'.conf 65%
2027-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingWoolly mammoth first birth (2028 target tracking)
How: Colossal Biosciences announces first woolly-mammoth-edited Asian elephant calf birth, per their 2028 target
Source: Colossal blog, Den of Geek interview confirming '2028 target'conf 50%
Notes: Cascade signal — affects broader S_BIOTECH/longevity scenarios. 2028 is the official target but biotech timelines often slip.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 45%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z45.2%-1.7pp

Network propagation: 46.9% → 45.2%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z46.9%-3.5pp

Network propagation: 50.3% → 46.9%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z50.3%-6.9pp

Network propagation: 57.2% → 50.3%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z57.2%-12.5pp

Network propagation: 69.7% → 57.2%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

resolution_terminal2026-04-30T19:17:54Z50.0%-19.7pp

resolution_terminal partial outcome=0.5 pre_resolution=0.697

Raw metadata

{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "partial",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 0.5,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 0.5,
  "delta_to_outcome": -0.19740999999999997,
  "inside_posterior": 0.69741,
  "validation_notes": "Colossal publicly reports multiple dire-wolf proxy animals beyond the initial named pair; taxonomy is disputed, so partial is safer than full hit.",
  "validation_status": "partial",
  "conflict_merged_by": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.69741,
  "resolution_evidence": null,
  "preexisting_conflict_prob": 0.69741,
  "preexisting_conflict_delta": 0.24717,
  "preexisting_conflict_reason": "intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87b23937 bayesian_v2 inside=0.697 blend=0.697 LLR=1.035 κ=0.64 no_blend",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true,
  "preexisting_conflict_metadata": {
    "trf": 0.9986817919892228,
    "kappa": 0.6429,
    "base_rate": null,
    "predictor": "Ben Lamm",
    "total_llr": 1.6094379124341,
    "bayesian_v2": true,
    "prior_logit": -0.1997018333115402,
    "bayes_factor": "2.8:1 favoring",
    "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
    "inside_prior": 0.450239804980416,
    "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
    "blend_applied": false,
    "contributions": [
      {
        "llr": 1.6094379124341,
        "kappa": 0.6429,
        "label": "Colossal publicly reports multiple dire-wolf proxy animals beyond the initial named pair; taxonomy is disputed, so parti",
        "adjusted_llr": 1.034707633903883
      }
    ],
    "inside_source": "history_v2",
    "inside_weight": 1,
    "outside_weight": 0,
    "posterior_prob": 0.6974123384868232,
    "llm_suggestions": [
      {
        "polarity": "corroborates",
        "status_change": "partial",
        "evidence_strength": "strong",
        "delta_prob_suggestion": 0.12
      }
    ],
    "posterior_logit": 0.8350058005923431,
    "predictor_brier": 0.0064,
    "inside_posterior": 0.6974123384868232,
    "blended_posterior": 0.6974123384868232,
    "reference_class_id": null,
    "total_adjusted_llr": 1.034707633903883,
    "predictor_n_resolved": 2
  }
}

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z45.0%-1.7pp

Network propagation: 46.7% → 45.0%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.7%-3.3pp

Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.7%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	20.0%	0.050	0.500	-0.042
killer	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	15.0%	0.050	0.500	-0.019
killer	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	10.0%	0.050	0.500	+0.003

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUN CRWV SITM NVDA ARM GTLB BBAI TSM APLD CEVA AI MSFT MRVL SFTBY ORCL QCOM AVGO BABA AMD GOOGL IBM AMZN META

Adverse (6)

WNS CHGG CTSH IBM INFY ACN

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
killer	TK14	Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	—
killer	TK01	AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	—
killer	TK03	AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Validations (1)

Resolution events

Observed at	Status	By	Notes
2026-04-30	partial	intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87b23937	Colossal publicly reports multiple dire-wolf proxy animals beyond the initial named pair; taxonomy is disputed, so partial is safer than full hit.

Linked documents (4)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.900	codex_research_pack	Colossal - Woolly Mouse Mammoth gene editing validates de-extinction pipeline	—	corroborates	pending	2025-03-04
0.900	codex_research_pack	Colossal - Dire Wolf project	—	corroborates	pending	2025-04-07
0.900	codex_research_pack	Axios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction target	—	corroborates	pending	2026-04-30
0.555	manifold	New fish species	69%	mentions	pending	2026-05-19

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "Uh we we will have more direwolves coming which we have announced.",
  "verbatim": "we we will have more direwolves coming which we have announced.",
  "conv_cues": "we will have; we have announced",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Coming/future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Khaleesi (third direwolf, female) birth announcement",
      "notes": "Already HIT — Khaleesi born Jan 30 2025 confirms 'more direwolves' beyond Romulus/Remus.",
      "source": "Colossal Biosciences press release, BusinessWire, CRISPR Medicine News. Khaleesi born Jan 30, 2025 — confirmed.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossal_Biosciences_dire_wolf_project",
      "expected_date": "2025-01-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-01-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal Biosciences announces birth of third de-extinct direwolf, distinct from Romulus and Remus"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Direwolf pack social-development milestone (1-year birthday update)",
      "source": "Colossal Biosciences blog, BusinessWire press release dated Oct 1 2025",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251001018306/en/Colossal-Celebrates-the-First-Birthday-of-Romulus-Remus",
      "expected_date": "2025-10-01",
      "observed_date": "2025-10-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal publishes 1-year birthday update for Romulus & Remus showing pack hunting/socialization"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus",
      "status": "partial",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "245_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Colossal announces new de-extinct species (bluebuck or other)",
      "source": "https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/colossal-biosciences-species-extinction-bluebuck — Axios reporting on bluebuck announcement",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/colossal-biosciences-species-extinction-bluebuck",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal announces de-extinction work on additional non-direwolf species — bluebuck publicly announced via Axios on 2026-04-30"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal announces additional direwolves (4th-onwards)",
      "source": "Colossal press releases. Ben Lamm has stated 'more direwolves coming which we have announced'.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal announces a 4th, 5th, or further direwolf birth distinct from Romulus/Remus/Khaleesi"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Woolly mammoth first birth (2028 target tracking)",
      "notes": "Cascade signal — affects broader S_BIOTECH/longevity scenarios. 2028 is the official target but biotech timelines often slip.",
      "source": "Colossal blog, Den of Geek interview confirming '2028 target'",
      "
... (truncated)