CMQ_028predictionSemisNVIDIA-TAM

NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026).

Predictor: Jensen Huang

Prior probability

65.0%

Current probability

72.4%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

5/5

Signal quality

Resolution

pending

Window

2025-01-01 – 2027-12-31

Edges in / out

1 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). | NVIDIA quarterly DC revenue disclosures

Key catalyst: NVIDIA quarterly DC revenue disclosures

Watch events: NVIDIA quarterly data-center revenue; sovereign AI deal disclosures.

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

NVIDIA DC revenue >$150B/yr 2025 run rate; Vera Rubin/Feynman trajectory + sovereign-AI TAM expansion supports upgrade.

Predictor: Jensen Huang

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.808

Brier

0.0128

excellent

Hits / Misses

6 / 0

of 8 resolved

Hit rate

75.0%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Jensen Huang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y

Linked

All classes →

GPU vendor product roadmap milestone (architecture / production / launch) hits within 1y of announced date

Base rate

—

7/10 historical

Inside weight

—

Outside weight

—

no pull

inside 72.4% → blend 72.4% (Δ 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

8 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 72.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 2 overdue ⏱ · 3 pending

2025-05-28hitNVIDIA Q1 FY2026 data center revenue exceeds $40B (annualized run-rate >$160B)
How: NVIDIA reports Q1 FY2026 data center revenue >=$40B in earnings release (May 2025)
Source: https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2026conf 95%
Notes: HIT - run rate strongly supports $3-5T multi-year cumulative TAM thesis.
2025-07-24overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-02-13overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
2026-02-25hitNVIDIA full-year FY2026 data center revenue ~$197B
How: NVIDIA reports full fiscal-year 2026 data center revenue ~$197B (vs $115B prior year)
Source: https://fortune.com/2026/02/25/nvidia-nvda-earnings-q4-results-jensen-huang/conf 97%
Notes: HIT - $197B FY2026 data center revenue is on a $3-5T cumulative-through-2027 trajectory; about 70% growth YoY.
2026-04-29hitHyperscaler 2026 AI capex commitments ~$700B confirmed
How: Combined 2026 AI capex from Amazon + Microsoft + Alphabet + Meta + Oracle confirmed ~$700B in their 10-Ks / earnings calls
Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/29/4-stocks-primed-to-benefit-from-the-7-trillion-dat/conf 92%
2026-09-05pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-01-01 → 2027-06-30pendingNVIDIA crosses $5T market capitalization sustainably
How: NVIDIA market capitalization exceeds $5T (close-of-day) for >=20 consecutive trading days, validating Huang's TAM-justified valuation thesis
Source: Bloomberg / Yahoo Finance NVDA market-cap historicalsconf 70%
2026-06-01 → 2027-09-30pendingIndustry/analyst consensus aligns with $3-5T cumulative AI infra TAM through 2027
How: Major sell-side / industry research (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, McKinsey) publishes formal estimates aligned within +/-25% of the $3-5T cumulative-AI-infrastructure-TAM range
Source: Goldman, Morgan Stanley, McKinsey AI infrastructure reportsconf 75%
Notes: McKinsey already at $7T-by-2030 - signals consensus convergence with Huang's framing.
2027-03-29pendingNVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026).
2027-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingNVIDIA cumulative 2025-2027 data center revenue exceeds $500B (run-rate trajectory toward $3-5T TAM)
How: Cumulative NVIDIA data center revenue across FY2025+FY2026+FY2027 exceeds $500B, validating the $3-5T multi-year-TAM directional claim
Source: NVIDIA 10-K filingsconf 75%
Notes: Cascade - Huang's $3-5T is total-through-2027 TAM (capex including non-NVIDIA share); $500B cumulative NVIDIA share is ~10-17% of that.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 72%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z72.4%-9.9pp

Network propagation: 82.3% → 72.4%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

intake_event_update2026-05-21T23:15:16Z82.3%+26.4pp

intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14bdfc39 bayesian_v2 inside=0.823 blend=0.823 LLR=1.300 κ=0.81 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.5375055435477182,
  "kappa": 0.8077,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Jensen Huang",
  "total_llr": 1.6094379124341,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.2382433347202167,
  "bayes_factor": "3.7:1 favoring",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.5592807014200589,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": 1.6094379124341,
      "kappa": 0.8077,
      "label": "Q1 alone at $81.6B annualizes to >$325B; Q2 guide $91B implies $400B+ FY27 run-rate. $3-5T cumulative through 2027 looki",
      "adjusted_llr": 1.299943001873023
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "intake_event_update",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 1,
  "outside_weight": 0,
  "posterior_prob": 0.8232009172426098,
  "evidence_origin": "daily_intake",
  "llm_suggestions": [
    {
      "polarity": "corroborates",
      "status_change": "accelerated",
      "evidence_strength": "strong",
      "delta_prob_suggestion": 0.08
    }
  ],
  "posterior_logit": 1.538186336593239,
  "predictor_brier": 0.01276,
  "evidence_doc_ids": [],
  "inside_posterior": 0.8232009172426098,
  "blended_posterior": 0.8232009172426098,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": 1.299943001873023,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 8
}

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z55.9%+1.8pp

Network propagation: 54.2% → 55.9%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z54.2%+3.6pp

Network propagation: 50.6% → 54.2%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z50.6%+7.0pp

Network propagation: 43.5% → 50.6%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z43.5%-16.2pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.435 blend=0.435 LLR=-0.655 κ=0.81 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.5549161103469683,
  "kappa": 0.8077,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Jensen Huang",
  "total_llr": -0.8109302162163288,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.395510903045804,
  "bayes_factor": "1.9:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.597608630112356,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 2,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8077,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.32749416781896434,
      "expected_date": "2025-07-24",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8077,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.32749416781896434,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-13",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.6115587227571222,
  "outside_weight": 0.3884412772428778,
  "posterior_prob": 0.4354921711767282,
  "posterior_logit": -0.2594774325921247,
  "predictor_brier": 0.01276,
  "inside_posterior": 0.4354921711767282,
  "blended_posterior": 0.4354921711767282,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.6549883356379287,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 8
}

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z59.8%-1.8pp

Network propagation: 61.6% → 59.8%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z61.6%-3.4pp

Network propagation: 65.0% → 61.6%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	12.0%	0.050	0.650	-0.146

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

26 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (22)

TSM AMBA ARM CEVA CRWV DOCN IREN NBIS NVDA SITM ALAB CSCO DELL SIEGY INTC NXPI LNVGY AMD ANET MRVL AVGO QCOM

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
killer	TK02	AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.754	gdelt	amazon chipmaker sell trainium ai chips nvidia 2026 4	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.742	manifold	Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?	14%	mentions	pending	2026-05-04
0.703	manifold	How many times will the Trump admin and/or NVIDIA flip-flop on giving NVIDIA chips to China before 2028? (fun)	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-02
0.689	manifold	Will Nvidia close above $225 on May 21, 2026 after earnings?	45%	mentions	pending	2026-05-11
0.685	manifold	Nvidia closes at $… in May 2026?	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-17
0.660	gdelt	big tech earnings microsoft ai investment capex plan 2026 4	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.660	manifold	Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?	46%	mentions	pending	2026-05-16
0.649	manifold	Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?	75%	mentions	pending	2026-05-09
0.628	edgar_8k	ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC (AMD) (CIK 0000002488)	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-15
0.624	gdelt	2580710	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "≥$3-5T TAM",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "Significant upgrade from prior ~$1T TAM framing; anchors NVIDIA $5T+ market-cap justification.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "conv_cues": "at least; upgraded; CEO",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2025,
  "timeframe": "through 2027",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NVIDIA Q1 FY2026 data center revenue exceeds $40B (annualized run-rate >$160B)",
      "notes": "HIT - run rate strongly supports $3-5T multi-year cumulative TAM thesis.",
      "source": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2026",
      "expected_date": "2025-05-28",
      "observed_date": "2025-05-28",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NVIDIA reports Q1 FY2026 data center revenue >=$40B in earnings release (May 2025)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-07-24",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-13",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NVIDIA full-year FY2026 data center revenue ~$197B",
      "notes": "HIT - $197B FY2026 data center revenue is on a $3-5T cumulative-through-2027 trajectory; about 70% growth YoY.",
      "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/02/25/nvidia-nvda-earnings-q4-results-jensen-huang/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "source_url": "https://fortune.com/2026/02/25/nvidia-nvda-earnings-q4-results-jensen-huang/",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-25",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-25",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NVIDIA reports full fiscal-year 2026 data center revenue ~$197B (vs $115B prior year)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Hyperscaler 2026 AI capex commitments ~$700B confirmed",
      "source": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/29/4-stocks-primed-to-benefit-from-the-7-trillion-dat/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "source_url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/29/4-stocks-primed-to-benefit-from-the-7-trillion-dat/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-04-30",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Combined 2026 AI capex from Amazon + Microsoft + Alphabet + Meta + Oracle confirmed ~$700B in their 10-Ks / earnings calls"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-09-05",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "NVIDIA crosses $5T market capitalization sustainably",
      "source": "Bloomberg / Yahoo Finance NVDA market-cap historicals
... (truncated)