INF_011predictionMacro/Economyhyperscaler-capex

Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets.

Predictor: Morgan Stanley

Prior probability

88.0%

Current probability

92.3%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

5/5

Signal quality

Resolution

in_progress

Window

2025-01-01 – 2026-12-31

Edges in / out

0 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets. | Q1-Q2 2026 hyperscaler earnings capex guidance

Key catalyst: Q1-Q2 2026 hyperscaler earnings capex guidance

Watch events: Quarterly hyperscaler capex beats; IG/HY DC-project debt issuance

Resolution evidence

Status: in_progress

Alphabet/Microsoft/Amazon/Meta combined 2025 capex ~$325B; 2026 guidance pushing toward $500B+ — tracking well-above $1T for the 2yr window.

Predictor: Morgan Stanley

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.633

Brier

0.0442

excellent

Hits / Misses

1 / 0

of 2 resolved

Hit rate

50.0%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Morgan Stanley is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: ipo_trillion_plus

Linked via embedding similarity 0.589

All classes →

Trillion-dollar private company IPO at announced valuation within 12 months of S-1

Base rate

50.0%

2/4 historical

Inside weight

0.786

TRF=0.31

Outside weight

0.214

pulling toward base rate

inside 95.9% → blend 92.3% (Δ -3.6pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 92.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 3 overdue ⏱ · 1 pending

2025-05-20overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
2025-10-06overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
2025-12-31hitAlphabet long-term debt quadrupled to $46.5B in 2025
How: GOOG 10-K confirms long-term debt grew >=3x in 2025 to $40B+
Source: https://introl.com/blog/hyperscaler-capex-600b-2026-ai-infrastructure-debt-january-2026conf 95%
Notes: Concrete debt-financing data point validating prediction's 'half via debt' claim.
2026-01-15hitHyperscalers raised $108B in debt during 2025 alone
How: Aggregate 2025 debt issuance by MSFT/GOOG/AMZN/META/ORCL confirmed >=$100B
Source: https://introl.com/blog/hyperscaler-capex-600b-2026-ai-infrastructure-debt-january-2026conf 90%
Notes: HIT — supports Morgan Stanley's 'roughly half debt-financed' clause.
2026-02-06hitHyperscaler 2026 capex aggregate confirmed >$600B
How: CNBC/Goldman/Futurum reports aggregate MSFT+GOOG+AMZN+META+ORCL 2026 capex guidance >=$600B
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/06/google-microsoft-meta-amazon-ai-cash.htmlconf 99%
Notes: HIT — Big 5 hyperscaler 2026 capex confirmed at $600-725B; combined with 2025 levels easily exceeds $1T threshold.
2026-02-22overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-03-15hitGoldman: hyperscaler capex 2025-2027 will reach $1.15T (vs $477B 2022-24)
How: Goldman Sachs research piece projects hyperscaler 2025-2027 aggregate capex >=$1.0T
Source: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-ai-companies-may-invest-more-than-500-billion-in-2026conf 95%
2026-04-15 → 2026-08-15pendingQ1-Q2 2026 hyperscaler earnings reaffirm capex guidance unchanged or up
How: Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings calls show no major hyperscaler reducing 2026 full-year capex guidance
Source: Quarterly earnings releasesconf 85%
2026-07-12pendingMega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via deb
2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingCredit markets show stress: hyperscaler bond spreads widen >50bps in 2026
How: Investment-grade tech bond spreads (vs Treasury) for MSFT/GOOG/AMZN/META widen >=50bps from Q1 2026 baseline
Source: Bloomberg / TRACE bond dataconf 30%
Notes: Cascade — would validate Morgan Stanley's 'intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets' thesis.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 92%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

intake_event_update2026-05-21T23:15:16Z92.3%+2.1pp

intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14bdfc39 bayesian_v2 inside=0.959 blend=0.923 LLR=0.939 κ=0.58 w_in=0.79 ipo_trillion_plus

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.3059411037602245,
  "kappa": 0.5833,
  "base_rate": 0.5,
  "predictor": "Morgan Stanley",
  "total_llr": 1.6094379124341,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 2.221691906334541,
  "bayes_factor": "2.6:1 favoring",
  "blend_reason": "blend 79% inside / 21% outside (TRF=0.306, base_rate=0.500 from ipo_trillion_plus)",
  "inside_prior": 0.9021806093511862,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": 1.6094379124341,
      "kappa": 0.5833,
      "label": "2026 alone at $700-725B plus 2025 levels easily breaches $1T over 2025-2028 window.",
      "adjusted_llr": 0.9387851343228107
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "intake_event_update",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.7858412273678428,
  "outside_weight": 0.2141587726321572,
  "posterior_prob": 0.9229864487980697,
  "evidence_origin": "daily_intake",
  "llm_suggestions": [
    {
      "polarity": "corroborates",
      "status_change": "accelerated",
      "evidence_strength": "strong",
      "delta_prob_suggestion": 0.05
    }
  ],
  "posterior_logit": 3.160477040657351,
  "predictor_brier": 0.01,
  "evidence_doc_ids": [],
  "inside_posterior": 0.9593195672751968,
  "blended_posterior": 0.9229864487980697,
  "reference_class_id": "ipo_trillion_plus",
  "total_adjusted_llr": 0.9387851343228107,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 1
}

intake_event_update2026-05-03T02:40:54Z84.6%+6.3pp

intake:515b84c4-6b29-4d57-8dd6-d41dac0675ec bayesian_v2 inside=0.902 blend=0.846 LLR=0.939 κ=0.58 w_in=0.77 ipo_trillion_plus

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.3318083152022049,
  "kappa": 0.5833,
  "base_rate": 0.5,
  "predictor": "Morgan Stanley",
  "total_llr": 1.6094379124341,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 1.282906772011729,
  "bayes_factor": "2.6:1 favoring",
  "blend_reason": "blend 77% inside / 23% outside (TRF=0.332, base_rate=0.500 from ipo_trillion_plus)",
  "inside_prior": 0.7829441670770583,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": 1.6094379124341,
      "kappa": 0.5833,
      "label": "Visible 2026 capex alone from Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon now sums to roughly $695-$725 billion. That means th",
      "adjusted_llr": 0.9387851343228107
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "intake_event_update",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.7677341793584566,
  "outside_weight": 0.2322658206415434,
  "posterior_prob": 0.8462736650328943,
  "evidence_origin": "daily_intake",
  "llm_suggestions": [
    {
      "polarity": "corroborates",
      "status_change": "accelerated",
      "evidence_strength": "strong",
      "delta_prob_suggestion": 0.14
    }
  ],
  "posterior_logit": 2.22169190633454,
  "predictor_brier": 0.01,
  "evidence_doc_ids": [],
  "inside_posterior": 0.9021806093511862,
  "blended_posterior": 0.8462736650328943,
  "reference_class_id": "ipo_trillion_plus",
  "total_adjusted_llr": 0.9387851343228107,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 1
}

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z72.8%-9.3pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.783 blend=0.728 LLR=-0.710 κ=0.58 w_in=0.77 ipo_trillion_plus

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.3320688953629401,
  "kappa": 0.5833,
  "base_rate": 0.5,
  "predictor": "Morgan Stanley",
  "total_llr": -1.2163953243244932,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 1.9924301646902063,
  "bayes_factor": "2.0:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "blend 76% inside / 23% outside (TRF=0.332, base_rate=0.500 from ipo_trillion_plus)",
  "inside_prior": 0.88,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 3,
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.5833,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2365077975594923,
      "expected_date": "2025-05-20",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.5833,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2365077975594923,
      "expected_date": "2025-10-06",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.5833,
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2365077975594923,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-22",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.7675517732459419,
  "outside_weight": 0.23244822675405807,
  "posterior_prob": 0.7280392817987476,
  "posterior_logit": 1.2829067720117293,
  "predictor_brier": 0.01,
  "inside_posterior": 0.7829441670770583,
  "blended_posterior": 0.7280392817987476,
  "reference_class_id": "ipo_trillion_plus",
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.709523392678477,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 1
}

legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z82.1%+0.0pp

reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.880 blend=0.821 w_in=0.77 ipo_trillion_plus

legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z82.1%-5.9pp

reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.880 blend=0.821 w_in=0.76 ipo_trillion_plus

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

Ticker exposure

9 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (9)

NVDA CRWV APLD MSFT ORCL AMZN SFTBY GOOGL META

Prerequisites (0)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No prerequisites

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers

Expected by	Description	Status
2026-12-31	[Capital Markets 2026-12] [INF_011] Quarterly hyperscaler capex beats; IG/HY DC-project debt issuance [SEM_028] NVDA, AVGO, ASTS 12-month price performance vs semi index [CMQ_020] Hyperscaler capex guidance; sovereign AI infrastructure	pending

Validations (1)

Resolution events

Observed at	Status	By	Notes
2026-04-29	partial	thesis_timeline_v1.0_import	Alphabet/Microsoft/Amazon/Meta combined 2025 capex ~$325B; 2026 guidance pushing toward $500B+ — tracking well-above $1T for the 2yr window.

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.658	manifold	Will any tokenized basket or index investment product exceed $1 billion in AUM by the end of 2027?	47%	mentions	pending	2026-05-11
0.655	gdelt	big tech earnings microsoft ai investment capex plan 2026 4	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.644	polymarket	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	0%	mentions	pending	2025-06-26
0.641	polymarket	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	0%	mentions	pending	2025-10-14
0.639	polymarket	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	100%	mentions	pending	2026-03-09
0.637	polymarket	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	1%	mentions	pending	2025-11-05
0.635	polymarket	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	99%	mentions	pending	2026-02-13
0.606	gdelt	dow s p 500 slip as fed holds rates eyes turn to mega cap earnings 1091413.html	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.604	polymarket	Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	0%	mentions	pending	2026-04-16
0.601	manifold	Disbursements from Trump Anti-Weaponization Fund exceed 1 billion dollars before dissolution?	27%	mentions	pending	2026-05-24

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": ">$1T capex",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "context": "Morgan Stanley Research projects ~$3T of total AI infrastructure spending still ahead with ~50% internal cash flow, ~50% debt-financed — a leverage profile new to the technology sector.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "conv_cues": "specific dollar amount; explicit window",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2025,
  "timeframe": "2025-2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-05-20",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-10-06",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Alphabet long-term debt quadrupled to $46.5B in 2025",
      "notes": "Concrete debt-financing data point validating prediction's 'half via debt' claim.",
      "source": "https://introl.com/blog/hyperscaler-capex-600b-2026-ai-infrastructure-debt-january-2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/hyperscaler-capex-600b-2026-ai-infrastructure-debt-january-2026",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "GOOG 10-K confirms long-term debt grew >=3x in 2025 to $40B+"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Hyperscalers raised $108B in debt during 2025 alone",
      "notes": "HIT — supports Morgan Stanley's 'roughly half debt-financed' clause.",
      "source": "https://introl.com/blog/hyperscaler-capex-600b-2026-ai-infrastructure-debt-january-2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/hyperscaler-capex-600b-2026-ai-infrastructure-debt-january-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Aggregate 2025 debt issuance by MSFT/GOOG/AMZN/META/ORCL confirmed >=$100B"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Hyperscaler 2026 capex aggregate confirmed >$600B",
      "notes": "HIT — Big 5 hyperscaler 2026 capex confirmed at $600-725B; combined with 2025 levels easily exceeds $1T threshold.",
      "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/06/google-microsoft-meta-amazon-ai-cash.html",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/06/google-microsoft-meta-amazon-ai-cash.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-06",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-06",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "CNBC/Goldman/Futurum reports aggregate MSFT+GOOG+AMZN+META+ORCL 2026 capex guidance >=$600B"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-22",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Goldman: hyperscaler capex 2025-2027 will reach
... (truncated)