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AI_020predictionSpaceVera-Rubin-Space-Module

NVIDIA will launch a 'space computing' push via the specialized Vera Rubin Space Module — bringing AI infrastructure, geospatial intelligence, and autonomous operations into low Earth orbit, then to autonomous lunar manufacturing bases.

Predictor: NVIDIA

Prior probability
38.0%
Current probability
36.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30
Edges in / out
4 / 0
Tickers exposed
36

Prediction text

NVIDIA will launch a 'space computing' push via the specialized Vera Rubin Space Module — bringing AI infrastructure, geospatial intelligence, and autonomous operations into low Earth orbit, then to autonomous lunar manufacturing bases. | First orbital-DC customer deployment

Key catalyst: First orbital-DC customer deployment

Watch events: NVIDIA space-product announcements; orbital-DC launch partnerships

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

NVIDIA H100 Space-grade radiation-hardened variants deployed on ISS 2024; Jetson orbital modules in pipeline.

Predictor: NVIDIA

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.500
Brier
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
Hit rate

Evidence about this node from NVIDIA is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 38%2026-04-302026-05-102026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 36.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 5 pending
  1. 2026-03-16hitNVIDIA announces Vera Rubin Space-1 module at GTC (25x H100 compute, solar powered)
    How: Jensen Huang keynote unveils Vera Rubin Space Module with named orbital data center customers
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 96%
  2. 2026-03-16hitSix space-AI partners named at launch (Aetherflux, Axiom, Kepler, Planet, Sophia, Starcloud)
    How: Initial customer roster of 6+ orbital AI/edge partners announced with NVIDIA hardware deployment plans
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 93%
  3. 2026-12-01 → 2027-09-30pendingFirst Vera Rubin Space Module ships to a paying orbital customer
    How: NVIDIA confirms commercial shipment of Vera Rubin Space-1 hardware to a satellite operator (Starcloud, Kepler, etc.)
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 65%
  4. 2027-09-01pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFirst Rubin-class AI inference workload runs on-orbit (not just imaging payload)
    How: Operator publicly demos LLM/foundation-model inference executing in space on Vera Rubin Space hardware
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
  6. 2028-05-01pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  7. 2028-12-30pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  8. 2028-06-01 → 2030-11-30pendingFirst lunar-surface AI compute deployment announcement (NVIDIA-class hardware)
    How: Public partnership/contract announcement deploying NVIDIA Vera Rubin or successor on lunar surface mission (CLPS or Artemis-supported)
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 30%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 36%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z36.0%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 37.2% → 36.0%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z37.2%-2.6pp
Network propagation: 39.8% → 37.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z39.8%-5.4pp
Network propagation: 45.2% → 39.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z45.2%-10.8pp
Network propagation: 56.0% → 45.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
legacy v12026-04-30T19:17:54Z56.0%+19.7pp
intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87b23937 bayesian_v2 inside=0.560 blend=0.560 LLR=0.805 κ=0.50 no_blend
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z36.3%-1.7pp
Network propagation: 38.0% → 36.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.380-0.019
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.380-0.019
killerTK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10.0%0.0500.380-0.013
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.380-0.006

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

36 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

ALABAMBAARMCEVACRWVDOCNIRENNBISNNENVDASITMTSMSIEGYINTCAVGOAMDDELLNXPILNVGYANETCSCOMRVLQCOM

Adverse (4)

TRVPGRUBERALL

Prerequisites (4)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
killerTK11Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (5)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.900codex_research_packNVIDIA - Launches Space Computing, Rocketing AI Into Orbitcorroboratespending2026-03-16
0.644manifoldWill there be a data center on the moon Europa by EOY 2066?35%mentionspending2026-06-06
0.638arxivReal-Time Retargeting Using Controllability Boundary for Chandrayaan-3 Lunar Landingmentionspending2026-05-28
0.620manifoldWill Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?75%mentionspending2026-05-09
0.558gdelttrump afirma que nasa podria poner astronautas en superficie lunar en su mandatomentionspending2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "context": "Paired with Shotwell's SpaceX space-DC initiative (SEM_043) and Wissner-Gross lunar-DC thesis (232_049). NVIDIA's specific hardware productization of orbital compute.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "conv_cues": "named product; staged roadmap",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "2027-2030",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NVIDIA announces Vera Rubin Space-1 module at GTC (25x H100 compute, solar powered)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.96,
      "source_url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/space-computing",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-16",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Jensen Huang keynote unveils Vera Rubin Space Module with named orbital data center customers"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Six space-AI partners named at launch (Aetherflux, Axiom, Kepler, Planet, Sophia, Starcloud)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.93,
      "source_url": "https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/nvidia-announces-vera-rubin-space-module",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-16",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Initial customer roster of 6+ orbital AI/edge partners announced with NVIDIA hardware deployment plans"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First Vera Rubin Space Module ships to a paying orbital customer",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/nvidia-chips-orbital-data-centers-space-ai.html",
      "expected_date": "2027-05-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-09-30",
        "from": "2026-12-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "NVIDIA confirms commercial shipment of Vera Rubin Space-1 hardware to a satellite operator (Starcloud, Kepler, etc.)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-09-01",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First Rubin-class AI inference workload runs on-orbit (not just imaging payload)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://siliconangle.com/2026/03/16/nvidia-previews-vera-rubin-space-1-module-orbital-data-centers/",
      "expected_date": "2028-03-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2027-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Operator publicly demos LLM/foundation-model inference executing in space on Vera Rubin Space hardware"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-05-01",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-12-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "NVIDIA wi
... (truncated)