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242_028predictionLabor/JobsAI-timing

AI could automate 25% of US work hours

Predictor: Goldman Sachs · ep#242 "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
38.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
D
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31
Edges in / out
9 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

AI could automate 25% of US work hours | Goldman says AI could automate 25% of US work hours. Seems like a low estimate to me.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242"
Goldman says AI could automate 25% of US work hours. Seems like a low estimate to me.

Predictor: Goldman Sachs

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.500
Brier
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
Hit rate

Evidence about this node from Goldman Sachs is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 38.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 6 pending
  1. 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAnthropic Economic Index update shows >25% of measurable work hours AI-touched
    How: Anthropic Economic Index quarterly update reports >=25% of US occupations have measurable AI-augmentation share by hours
    Source: Anthropic 'Labor market impacts of AI: a new measure'conf 70%
  2. 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingGoldman Sachs / McKinsey publishes update confirming 25% automatable-work-hours estimate
    How: Goldman or McKinsey successor report retains or increases 25% automatable-hours estimate; tracked via firm research portals
    Source: Goldman Sachs 25% work-hours automation original estimateconf 75%
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2028-03-31pendingFirst major sector reports >40% of work-hours mediated by AI tools
    How: Sector survey (legal, software, marketing) reports >40% of weekly work-hours involve AI tool usage; Anthropic Index or comparable
    Source: Anthropic Index showing software/legal early-mover sectorsconf 65%
  4. 2026-12-01 → 2028-03-31pendingAggregate enterprise AI-tool seat-count exceeds 100M paid users in US
    How: Combined paid Microsoft Copilot + ChatGPT Enterprise + Claude Teams + Gemini Workspace US seat count exceeds 100M; tracked via earnings disclosures
    Source: Goldman 300M jobs globally exposed framingconf 55%
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingBLS time-use survey shows measurable shift of work-hours from manual tasks to AI-supervisory tasks
    How: American Time Use Survey reports >5pp shift in employed workers' on-the-clock activity composition toward AI-tool-mediated work
    Source: ALMcorp 60-data-point displacement statisticsconf 40%
  6. 2027-12-31pendingIf aggregate AI seat count plateaus below 50M by end-2027, 25% thesis on track to miss
    How: US paid AI-tool seat count below 50M at end-2027 implies adoption insufficient to touch 25% of work hours by 2028 close
    Source: Linear extrapolation from current Copilot/ChatGPT seat reportsconf 45%
  7. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 39%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z38.7%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 39.7% → 38.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z39.7%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 41.5% → 39.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z41.5%-3.3pp
Network propagation: 44.8% → 41.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z44.8%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 46.9% → 44.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.9%-3.1pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_AGI_MID_2029
AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path
35.0%0.5000.050-0.179
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.500+0.068
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.500+0.046
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.500+0.023
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.5000.050+0.011

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.077
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.076
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.064
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.047
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.046

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (9)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqS_AGI_MID_2029AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 pathagi_general_capability
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Linked documents (9)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.678manifoldWill at least 25% of US retail investors report using an AI agent for an investment-related task by the end of 2027?74%mentionspending2026-05-11
0.641manifoldWill Bernie's 50% AI tax pass?6%mentionspending2026-06-03
0.639manifold[snigus] Will I convince Destiny that managing AI-risk should be in top 2 policy priority of his?35%mentionspending2026-05-31
0.621manifoldRobots reliably do my laundry by?mentionspending2026-05-19
0.571manifoldWill Germany pass a law that allows a weekly maximum working time of 48 hours per week before the end of 2027?59%mentionspending2026-05-12
0.557manifoldDo you like 4% odds?4%mentionspending2026-04-27
0.556manifoldDo you like 96% odds?96%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.538edgar_8kIntuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) (CIK 0001844452)mentionspending2026-06-03
0.538edgar_8kIntuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) (CIK 0001844452)mentionspending2026-05-14

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "25% of US work hours",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "caveats": "Peter thinks estimate is low",
  "context": "Goldman says AI could automate 25% of US work hours",
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "Goldman says AI could automate 25% of US work hours. Seems like a low estimate to me.",
  "conv_cues": "could",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "timeframe": "unspecified",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
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    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
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      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
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      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic Economic Index update shows >25% of measurable work hours AI-touched",
      "source": "Anthropic 'Labor market impacts of AI: a new measure'",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.anthropic.com/research/labor-market-impacts",
      "expected_date": "2027-05-02",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic Economic Index quarterly update reports >=25% of US occupations have measurable AI-augmentation share by hours"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Goldman Sachs / McKinsey publishes update confirming 25% automatable-work-hours estimate",
      "source": "Goldman Sachs 25% work-hours automation original estimate",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "source_url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-will-ai-affect-the-us-labor-market",
      "expected_date": "2027-05-02",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
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      "measurement_criterion": "Goldman or McKinsey successor report retains or increases 25% automatable-hours estimate; tracked via firm research portals"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First major sector reports >40% of work-hours mediated by AI tools",
      "source": "Anthropic Index showing software/legal early-mover sectors",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source
... (truncated)