AI could automate 25% of US work hours
Predictor: Goldman Sachs · ep#242 "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242" · source
Prediction text
AI could automate 25% of US work hours | Goldman says AI could automate 25% of US work hours. Seems like a low estimate to me.
Verbatim quote
Goldman says AI could automate 25% of US work hours. Seems like a low estimate to me.
Predictor: Goldman Sachs
Evidence about this node from Goldman Sachs is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAnthropic Economic Index update shows >25% of measurable work hours AI-touchedHow: Anthropic Economic Index quarterly update reports >=25% of US occupations have measurable AI-augmentation share by hoursSource: Anthropic 'Labor market impacts of AI: a new measure'conf 70%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingGoldman Sachs / McKinsey publishes update confirming 25% automatable-work-hours estimateHow: Goldman or McKinsey successor report retains or increases 25% automatable-hours estimate; tracked via firm research portalsSource: Goldman Sachs 25% work-hours automation original estimateconf 75%
- 2026-09-01 → 2028-03-31pendingFirst major sector reports >40% of work-hours mediated by AI toolsHow: Sector survey (legal, software, marketing) reports >40% of weekly work-hours involve AI tool usage; Anthropic Index or comparableSource: Anthropic Index showing software/legal early-mover sectorsconf 65%
- 2026-12-01 → 2028-03-31pendingAggregate enterprise AI-tool seat-count exceeds 100M paid users in USHow: Combined paid Microsoft Copilot + ChatGPT Enterprise + Claude Teams + Gemini Workspace US seat count exceeds 100M; tracked via earnings disclosuresSource: Goldman 300M jobs globally exposed framingconf 55%
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingBLS time-use survey shows measurable shift of work-hours from manual tasks to AI-supervisory tasksHow: American Time Use Survey reports >5pp shift in employed workers' on-the-clock activity composition toward AI-tool-mediated workSource: ALMcorp 60-data-point displacement statisticsconf 40%
- 2027-12-31pendingIf aggregate AI seat count plateaus below 50M by end-2027, 25% thesis on track to missHow: US paid AI-tool seat count below 50M at end-2027 implies adoption insufficient to touch 25% of work hours by 2028 closeSource: Linear extrapolation from current Copilot/ChatGPT seat reportsconf 45%
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | 35.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.179 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.068 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.046 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.023 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.011 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.077 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.076 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.064 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.047 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.046 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (9)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | S_AGI_MID_2029 | AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
Linked documents (9)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.678 | manifold | Will at least 25% of US retail investors report using an AI agent for an investment-related task by the end of 2027? | 74% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.641 | manifold | Will Bernie's 50% AI tax pass? | 6% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
| 0.639 | manifold | [snigus] Will I convince Destiny that managing AI-risk should be in top 2 policy priority of his? | 35% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-31 |
| 0.621 | manifold | Robots reliably do my laundry by? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-19 |
| 0.571 | manifold | Will Germany pass a law that allows a weekly maximum working time of 48 hours per week before the end of 2027? | 59% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-12 |
| 0.557 | manifold | Do you like 4% odds? | 4% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-27 |
| 0.556 | manifold | Do you like 96% odds? | 96% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.538 | edgar_8k | Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) (CIK 0001844452) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
| 0.538 | edgar_8k | Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) (CIK 0001844452) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-14 |
Raw metadata
{
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"qty": "25% of US work hours",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
"mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
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"caveats": "Peter thinks estimate is low",
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"cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
"verbatim": "Goldman says AI could automate 25% of US work hours. Seems like a low estimate to me.",
"conv_cues": "could",
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"confidence": 0.65,
"source
... (truncated)