Unnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more after
Predictor: Unnamed tech CEO · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source
Prediction text
Unnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more after | I talked to uh CEO of a publicly traded tech company and he said unannounced he said we're going to fire 15% of our workers and then two years from now we're going to fire another 20%. And then two years after that we're going to fire another 20%.
Verbatim quote
I talked to uh CEO of a publicly traded tech company and he said unannounced he said we're going to fire 15% of our workers and then two years from now we're going to fire another 20%. And then two years after that we're going to fire another 20%.
Predictor: Unnamed tech CEO
Evidence about this node from Unnamed tech CEO is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.053 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.046 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.037 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.033 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.031 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.029 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.019 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.016 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.007 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.006 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
Linked documents (1)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.570 | gdelt | were doing the work required to win back fans across windows and xbox microsoft ceo satya nadella says the company is making foundational changes to fix windows 11 and xbox | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "15%, then 20%, then 20% layoffs",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
"mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
"role": "Cited-Executive",
"context": "I talked to uh CEO of a publicly traded tech company and he said unannounced he said we're going to fire 15% of our workers and then two years from now we're going to fire another 20%. And then two years after that we're going to fire another 20%. He's like after that don't know.",
"to_year": 2030,
"cited_by": "Andrew Yang",
"verbatim": "I talked to uh CEO of a publicly traded tech company and he said unannounced he said we're going to fire 15% of our workers and then two years from now we're going to fire another 20%. And then two years after that we're going to fire another 20%.",
"conv_cues": "we're going to",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "2026, 2028, 2030",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
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"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
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},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
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},
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"expected_date": "2029-08-12",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
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"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.",
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"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": "246_016",
"expected_date": "2034-09-16",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Moon base will exist in 10 years",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 3,
"source_id": "239_008",
"expected_date": "2036-09-06",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 4,
"source_id": "SEM_034",
"expected_date": "2039-09-22",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 5,
"source_id": "240_036",
"expected_date": "2040-07-06",
"observed_date": null
}
],
... (truncated)