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236_015predictionLabor/JobsAI-timing

Unnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more after

Predictor: Unnamed tech CEO · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
46.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
D
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Unnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more after | I talked to uh CEO of a publicly traded tech company and he said unannounced he said we're going to fire 15% of our workers and then two years from now we're going to fire another 20%. And then two years after that we're going to fire another 20%.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236"
I talked to uh CEO of a publicly traded tech company and he said unannounced he said we're going to fire 15% of our workers and then two years from now we're going to fire another 20%. And then two years after that we're going to fire another 20%.

Predictor: Unnamed tech CEO

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.500
Brier
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
Hit rate

Evidence about this node from Unnamed tech CEO is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 46.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓
  1. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 47%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z46.7%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 47.8% → 46.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z47.8%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 49.3% → 47.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.3%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 49.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5500.050-0.053
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5500.050-0.046
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5500.050-0.037
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.033
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.5500.050-0.031

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.029
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.019
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.016
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.007
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.006

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "15%, then 20%, then 20% layoffs",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "I talked to uh CEO of a publicly traded tech company and he said unannounced he said we're going to fire 15% of our workers and then two years from now we're going to fire another 20%. And then two years after that we're going to fire another 20%. He's like after that don't know.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "cited_by": "Andrew Yang",
  "verbatim": "I talked to uh CEO of a publicly traded tech company and he said unannounced he said we're going to fire 15% of our workers and then two years from now we're going to fire another 20%. And then two years after that we're going to fire another 20%.",
  "conv_cues": "we're going to",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026, 2028, 2030",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Unnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more after",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "236_015",
      "expected_date": "2029-08-12",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "235_030",
      "expected_date": "2033-07-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "246_016",
      "expected_date": "2034-09-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Moon base will exist in 10 years",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "239_008",
      "expected_date": "2036-09-06",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "SEM_034",
      "expected_date": "2039-09-22",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "240_036",
      "expected_date": "2040-07-06",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],

... (truncated)