Poverty level around $25K per person going forward

Poverty level around $25K per person going forward | if you look at the poverty level now, now the poverty level um it depends upon where you are in the country. Um but it might be um something around uh $25,000 uh a person um in that order in that order of magnitude.

if you look at the poverty level now, now the poverty level um it depends upon where you are in the country. Um but it might be um something around uh $25,000 uh a person um in that order in that order of magnitude.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$25,000 per person (about $2K/month UBI needed)",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-Politician",
  "caveats": "depends on location",
  "context": "I campaigned on $1,000 a month in 2020 um which if you run some numbers uh GDP right now is around $84,000 ahead... a thousand's probably a bit low. Uh if you look at the poverty level now, now the poverty level um it depends upon where you are in the country. Um but it might be um something around uh $25,000 uh a person um in that order in that order of magnitude.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "if you look at the poverty level now, now the poverty level um it depends upon where you are in the country. Um but it might be um something around uh $25,000 uh a person um in that order in that order of magnitude.",
  "conv_cues": "might be; in that order of magnitude",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Present/near-term",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "HHS publishes 2026 Poverty Guidelines for individual",
      "notes": "Official 2026 number is $15,960 — meaningfully below the predictor's claimed ~$25K reference point; the prediction needs a redefinition of 'poverty level' (e.g., self-sufficiency standard) to land.",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/01/15/2026-00755/annual-update-of-the-hhs-poverty-guidelines",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-15",
      "observed_value": "USD 15,960 (1-person, 48 contiguous states + DC)",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Federal Register publication of HHS poverty guidelines establishing official threshold for one-person household."
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Poverty level around $25K per person going forward",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "236_050",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Census Bureau releases supplemental poverty measure (SPM) update",
      "
... (truncated)