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236_047predictionMacro/EconomyAI-timing

New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
55.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming | we have a new pandemic coming and this is a emotional pandemic of fear and anger that it's going to be spreading especially due to increased uncertainty and concerns over social unrest.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236"
we have a new pandemic coming and this is a emotional pandemic of fear and anger that it's going to be spreading especially due to increased uncertainty and concerns over social unrest.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 55.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 8 fired ✓
  1. 2026-01-15hit42% of Americans report anxiety about mental health entering 2026
    How: Major health survey (APA, NAMI, Gallup) reports ≥40% of Americans citing mental-health anxiety entering year
    Source: Finding Solutions Counseling: Why Anxiety and Burnout Are Rising in 2026conf 85%
  2. 2026-02-01hit32% of Americans report 'existential crisis' (Gen Z 52%)
    How: Major poll reports ≥30% of Americans experiencing existential crisis or identity dilemma
    Source: MesabiTribune coverage of Americans citing rising stress shaping outlook for 2026conf 85%
  3. 2026-04-01hitTeen anxiety/depression rates remain above pre-2020 levels into 2026
    How: JED Foundation or CDC adolescent mental health report confirms teen anxiety/depression rates have not returned to pre-2020 baseline
    Source: JED Foundation: Anticipated Youth Mental Health Trends in 2026conf 95%
  4. 2026-04-01 → 2026-12-31pendingAAA-rated civil unrest incident count rises ≥20% YoY by mid-2026
    How: ACLED US Crisis Monitor reports demonstration/violent incident count ≥20% above 2025 baseline
    Source: ACLED US Crisis Monitor, Armed Conflict Location & Event Dataconf 55%
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingAnger/fear sentiment index (online) crosses 2020 pandemic peak
    How: MIT Media Lab or Gallup emotion-tracking index shows fear+anger composite exceeding 2020 COVID-era peak
    Source: Gallup negative emotions index; academic emotion-trackersconf 45%
  6. 2026-07-01 → 2027-06-30pendingCascade: SAMHSA distress hotline volume up 25%+ YoY
    How: 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline reports call volume up ≥25% YoY for two consecutive quarters
    Source: SAMHSA 988 Lifeline operational metricsconf 50%
  7. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 55%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z55.0%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 56.3% → 55.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z56.3%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 58.2% → 56.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z58.2%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 60.9% → 58.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z60.9%-4.1pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 60.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6500.050-0.063
prereq235_038
David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trialPeter Diamandis
74.0%0.6500.050-0.060
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6500.050-0.054
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6500.050-0.043
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.650+0.040

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.037
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050+0.034
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050+0.033
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050+0.032
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050+0.019

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.739manifoldNew pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]10%mentionspending2026-05-09
0.679manifoldHantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]4%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.659manifoldWill Hantavirus become a pandemic in 2026?4%mentionspending2026-05-17
0.658manifoldHentavirus pandemic in 2026?5%mentionspending2026-05-09
0.652polymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?6%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.640manifoldEbola pandemic in 2026?6%mentionspending2026-05-19
0.636manifoldHantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?6%mentionspending2026-05-07
0.631manifoldHantavirus pandemic in 2026 or Starmer out before July 2026? [Polymarket]37%mentionspending2026-05-14
0.607manifoldWhat will happen related to the Hantavirus in 2026?mentionspending2026-05-07
0.599manifoldWill I get catch an illness before Manifest 2026?25%mentionspending2026-05-19

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "we have a new pandemic coming and this is a emotional pandemic of fear and anger that it's going to be spreading especially due to increased uncertainty and concerns over social unrest.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "we have a new pandemic coming and this is a emotional pandemic of fear and anger that it's going to be spreading especially due to increased uncertainty and concerns over social unrest.",
  "conv_cues": "coming; going to be spreading",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "42% of Americans report anxiety about mental health entering 2026",
      "source": "Finding Solutions Counseling: Why Anxiety and Burnout Are Rising in 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://findingyoursolution.com/why-anxiety-and-burnout-are-rising-in-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Major health survey (APA, NAMI, Gallup) reports ≥40% of Americans citing mental-health anxiety entering year"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "32% of Americans report 'existential crisis' (Gen Z 52%)",
      "source": "MesabiTribune coverage of Americans citing rising stress shaping outlook for 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.mesabitribune.com/around_the_web/health/americans-cite-rising-stress-uncertainty-shaping-outlook-for-2026/article_8cd7d2f1-81cd-5248-858b-ce0c93640034.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Major poll reports ≥30% of Americans experiencing existential crisis or identity dilemma"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Teen anxiety/depression rates remain above pre-2020 levels into 2026",
      "source": "JED Foundation: Anticipated Youth Mental Health Trends in 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://jedfoundation.org/anticipated-youth-mental-health-trends-in-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "JED Foundation or CDC adolescent mental health report confirms teen anxiety/depression rates have not returned to pre-2020 baseline"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
   
... (truncated)