New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source
Prediction text
New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming | we have a new pandemic coming and this is a emotional pandemic of fear and anger that it's going to be spreading especially due to increased uncertainty and concerns over social unrest.
Verbatim quote
we have a new pandemic coming and this is a emotional pandemic of fear and anger that it's going to be spreading especially due to increased uncertainty and concerns over social unrest.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-15hit42% of Americans report anxiety about mental health entering 2026How: Major health survey (APA, NAMI, Gallup) reports ≥40% of Americans citing mental-health anxiety entering yearSource: Finding Solutions Counseling: Why Anxiety and Burnout Are Rising in 2026conf 85%
- 2026-02-01hit32% of Americans report 'existential crisis' (Gen Z 52%)How: Major poll reports ≥30% of Americans experiencing existential crisis or identity dilemmaSource: MesabiTribune coverage of Americans citing rising stress shaping outlook for 2026conf 85%
- 2026-04-01hitTeen anxiety/depression rates remain above pre-2020 levels into 2026How: JED Foundation or CDC adolescent mental health report confirms teen anxiety/depression rates have not returned to pre-2020 baselineSource: JED Foundation: Anticipated Youth Mental Health Trends in 2026conf 95%
- 2026-04-01 → 2026-12-31pendingAAA-rated civil unrest incident count rises ≥20% YoY by mid-2026How: ACLED US Crisis Monitor reports demonstration/violent incident count ≥20% above 2025 baselineSource: ACLED US Crisis Monitor, Armed Conflict Location & Event Dataconf 55%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingAnger/fear sentiment index (online) crosses 2020 pandemic peakHow: MIT Media Lab or Gallup emotion-tracking index shows fear+anger composite exceeding 2020 COVID-era peakSource: Gallup negative emotions index; academic emotion-trackersconf 45%
- 2026-07-01 → 2027-06-30pendingCascade: SAMHSA distress hotline volume up 25%+ YoYHow: 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline reports call volume up ≥25% YoY for two consecutive quartersSource: SAMHSA 988 Lifeline operational metricsconf 50%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.063 |
| prereq | 235_038 David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trial — Peter Diamandis | 74.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.060 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.054 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.043 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.040 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.037 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.034 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.033 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.032 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.019 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.739 | manifold | New pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket] | 10% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-09 |
| 0.679 | manifold | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket] | 4% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.659 | manifold | Will Hantavirus become a pandemic in 2026? | 4% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-17 |
| 0.658 | manifold | Hentavirus pandemic in 2026? | 5% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-09 |
| 0.652 | polymarket | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 6% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.640 | manifold | Ebola pandemic in 2026? | 6% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-19 |
| 0.636 | manifold | Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027? | 6% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-07 |
| 0.631 | manifold | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026 or Starmer out before July 2026? [Polymarket] | 37% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-14 |
| 0.607 | manifold | What will happen related to the Hantavirus in 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-07 |
| 0.599 | manifold | Will I get catch an illness before Manifest 2026? | 25% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-19 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "we have a new pandemic coming and this is a emotional pandemic of fear and anger that it's going to be spreading especially due to increased uncertainty and concerns over social unrest.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "we have a new pandemic coming and this is a emotional pandemic of fear and anger that it's going to be spreading especially due to increased uncertainty and concerns over social unrest.",
"conv_cues": "coming; going to be spreading",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "Near-term",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "42% of Americans report anxiety about mental health entering 2026",
"source": "Finding Solutions Counseling: Why Anxiety and Burnout Are Rising in 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://findingyoursolution.com/why-anxiety-and-burnout-are-rising-in-2026/",
"expected_date": "2026-01-15",
"observed_date": "2026-01-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Major health survey (APA, NAMI, Gallup) reports ≥40% of Americans citing mental-health anxiety entering year"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "32% of Americans report 'existential crisis' (Gen Z 52%)",
"source": "MesabiTribune coverage of Americans citing rising stress shaping outlook for 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://www.mesabitribune.com/around_the_web/health/americans-cite-rising-stress-uncertainty-shaping-outlook-for-2026/article_8cd7d2f1-81cd-5248-858b-ce0c93640034.html",
"expected_date": "2026-02-01",
"observed_date": "2026-02-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Major poll reports ≥30% of Americans experiencing existential crisis or identity dilemma"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Teen anxiety/depression rates remain above pre-2020 levels into 2026",
"source": "JED Foundation: Anticipated Youth Mental Health Trends in 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://jedfoundation.org/anticipated-youth-mental-health-trends-in-2026/",
"expected_date": "2026-04-01",
"observed_date": "2026-04-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "JED Foundation or CDC adolescent mental health report confirms teen anxiety/depression rates have not returned to pre-2020 baseline"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
... (truncated)