Every company should or will be an AI company
Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source
Prediction text
Every company should or will be an AI company | I think every company is should be an AI company or is an AI company.
Verbatim quote
I think every company is should be an AI company or is an AI company.
Predictor: Ben Lamm
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-15hitDeloitte 2026 enterprise AI report: 64% of orgs actively using AI in operationsHow: Deloitte/PwC/McKinsey global enterprise AI report shows >=60% of surveyed orgs actively using AI in operations (vs <30% in 2023)Source: https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/what-we-do/capabilities/applied-artificial-intelligence/content/state-of-ai-in-the-enterprise.htmlconf 90%
- 2026-04-30hitAI revenue impact: 88% of enterprise respondents report AI-driven revenue upliftHow: Major enterprise survey (Deloitte/NVIDIA/PwC) confirms >=80% of respondents report measurable AI revenue impact, with >=25% reporting >10% revenue increaseSource: https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/state-of-ai-report-2026/conf 85%
- 2026-10-24pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2027-04-20pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2027-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingEnterprise AI 'reimagine' threshold: >=50% of Fortune 500 publish AI-first strategyHow: By count of public 10-K/annual report filings or CEO letters, >=50% of Fortune 500 companies explicitly position the firm as 'AI-first' or 'AI-native' with a CAIO/Chief AI Officer in C-suiteSource: https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/what-we-do/capabilities/applied-artificial-intelligence/content/state-of-ai-in-the-enterprise.htmlconf 60%
- 2027-10-15pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-03-31pendingS&P 500 IT spend on AI tooling exceeds 25% of total IT budgetHow: Gartner / IDC surveys of S&P 500 CIOs show median AI/ML line-items >=25% of total IT spending (up from ~10% in 2025)Source: https://www.pwc.com/us/en/tech-effect/ai-analytics/ai-predictions.htmlconf 55%
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingCascade: AI-native startups capture >=20% of new B2B SaaS market shareHow: CB Insights / Crunchbase: >=20% of net-new B2B SaaS revenue (annualized) attributed to AI-native firms founded post-2023, displacing incumbent SaaSSource: https://writer.com/blog/enterprise-ai-adoption-2026/conf 50%
- 2027-12-01 → 2028-09-30pendingCascade: BLS labor data shows >=10% headcount reduction in 'traditional knowledge work' categoriesHow: US Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data shows >=10% YoY decline in selected white-collar OEUS occupational categories (paralegals, junior accountants, customer service reps) attributable to AI substitutionSource: https://news.sap.com/2026/04/five-make-or-break-moments-2026-ai-ambitions/conf 45%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | 35.0% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.161 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | +0.059 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | +0.039 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | +0.019 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (4)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_MID_2029 | AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (2)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.519 | edgar_8k | Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) (CIK 0001562088) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.519 | edgar_8k | Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) (CIK 0001562088) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-05 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "We I think every company is should be an AI company or is an AI company. Uh so we feel like the synthetic biology part of our work is really interesting.",
"verbatim": "I think every company is should be an AI company or is an AI company.",
"conv_cues": "should be; is",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Present/near future",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Deloitte 2026 enterprise AI report: 64% of orgs actively using AI in operations",
"source": "https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/what-we-do/capabilities/applied-artificial-intelligence/content/state-of-ai-in-the-enterprise.html",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.9,
"expected_date": "2026-04-15",
"observed_date": "2026-04-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Deloitte/PwC/McKinsey global enterprise AI report shows >=60% of surveyed orgs actively using AI in operations (vs <30% in 2023)"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "AI revenue impact: 88% of enterprise respondents report AI-driven revenue uplift",
"source": "https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/state-of-ai-report-2026/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"observed_date": "2026-04-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Major enterprise survey (Deloitte/NVIDIA/PwC) confirms >=80% of respondents report measurable AI revenue impact, with >=25% reporting >10% revenue increase"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-10-24",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2027-04-20",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Enterprise AI 'reimagine' threshold: >=50% of Fortune 500 publish AI-first strategy",
"source": "https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/what-we-do/capabilities/applied-artificial-intelligence/content/state-of-ai-in-the-enterprise.html",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.6,
"expected_date": "2027-07-02",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-12-31",
"from": "2027-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "By count of public 10-K/annual report filings or CEO letters, >=50% of Fortune 500 companies explicitly position the firm as 'AI-first' or 'AI-native' with a CAIO/Chief AI Officer in C-suite"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2027-10-15",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "S&P 500 IT spend on AI tooling exceeds 25% of total IT budget",
"source": "https://www.pwc.com/us/en/tech-effect/ai-analytics/ai-predictions.html",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_date": "2027-10-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-03-31",
"from": "2027-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Gartner / IDC surveys of S&P 500 CIOs show median AI/ML l
... (truncated)