SMIC (China) projected at only 100,000 wafers/month of advanced-process capacity by 2026 — severe constraint forcing algorithmic bypasses.

SMIC (China) projected at only 100,000 wafers/month of advanced-process capacity by 2026 — severe constraint forcing algorithmic bypasses. | SMIC quarterly capacity disclosures

Key catalyst: SMIC quarterly capacity disclosures

Watch events: SMIC quarterly disclosures; Huawei Ascend chip shipments (derived demand signal)

SMIC reported ~35K wpm 7nm equivalent early 2025; ramping. 100K wpm by end-2026 plausible but tight given DUV multi-patterning yield constraints.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (4)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "100K wafers/mo advanced",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Analyst",
  "context": "SMIC advanced-node ceiling ~100K wpm by 2026 = 1/100th TSMC total output and 1/8th Nvidia's single-year reservation.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "conv_cues": "projected; stark asymmetry",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
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      "expected_date": "2026-03-10",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
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    {
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      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-18",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-30T22:15:00.756418+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
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    {
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      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-26",
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    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "SMIC (China) projected at only 100,000 wafers/month of advanced-process capacity by 2026 — severe constraint forcing algorithmic bypasses.",
      "status": "pending",
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      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "SEM_018",
      "expected_date": "2026-10-03",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "230_006",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-24",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become common",
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      "source_id": "247_055",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
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    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.",
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      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "248_033",
      "expected_date": "2028-07-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "242_031",
      "expected_date": "2030-09-27",
      "observed_date": null
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  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "All-In Podcast / Industry consensus",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "granularity": "YEAR",
  "source_refs": "9",
  "target_date": "2026-12-15",
  "display_date": "2026-10-03",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-21T00:00:00",
  "key_catalyst": "SMIC quarterly capacity disclosures",
  "parse_method": "YEAR midpoint",
  "domain_bucket": "Semis",
  "episode_title": "Forecasts and Strategic Vectors in the Global Semiconductor and Compute Manufacturing Ecosystem (2023-2026)",
  "fault_line_id": "F003, F007, F008",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "source_report": "Semiconductor_Prediction_Research_Plan.md (2026-04-21)",
  "appears_in_eps": "SEM-RPT",
  "consensus_size": 7,
  "futurist_phase": "Phase 1 (2026)",
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 4,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C1",
    "C2",
    "C3",
    "C5"
  ],
  "report_evidence": "Chip-war capacity ceiling. Forces Chinese algorithmic bypasses (quantization, ternary weights
... (truncated)