America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policy

America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policy | I also want lots of immigrants in our country because those immigrants, at least the high stakes high skills immigration, is what we need because we need the the smartest people in the world on our side

I also want lots of immigrants in our country because those immigrants, at least the high stakes high skills immigration, is what we need because we need the the smartest people in the world on our side

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "we need the the smartest people in the world on our side",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "I also want lots of immigrants in our country because those immigrants, at least the high stakes high skills immigration, is what we need because we need the the smartest people in the world on our side",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Trump imposes $100K H1B fee in Sep 2025",
      "notes": "HIT (negative for thesis) — $100K H1B fee CONTRADICTS Schmidt's call for smart immigration. Anti-immigration policy implemented.",
      "source": "https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/trump-100000-fee-h-1b-visa/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/trump-100000-fee-h-1b-visa/",
      "expected_date": "2025-09-21",
      "observed_date": "2025-09-21",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Trump administration implements $100K filing fee on new H-1B petitions"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "China launches K-visa to attract STEM talent",
      "notes": "HIT (negative) — Foreign brain drain underway, opposite of what Schmidt argued for.",
      "source": "https://thebulletin.org/2025/10/how-trumps-new-h-1b-fee-will-hurt-silicon-valley-and-ai-startups/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://thebulletin.org/2025/10/how-trumps-new-h-1b-fee-will-hurt-silicon-valley-and-ai-startups/",
      "expected_date": "2025-10-01",
      "observed_date": "2025-10-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "China launches K-visa STEM talent program drawing global researchers; brain drain risk to US"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "USCIS finalizes weighted/merit-based H1B selection",
      "notes": "HIT — Weighted selection rule effective for FY2027 cap. Partially aligned with 'high-skill' part of Schmidt's call but $100K fee creates affordability barrier.",
      "source": "https://www.uscis.gov/newsroom/news-releases/dhs-changes-process-for-awarding-h-1b-work-visas-to-better-protect-american-workers",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.uscis.gov/newsroom/news-releases/dhs-changes-process-for-awarding-h-1b-work-visas-to-better-protect-american-workers",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-27",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-27",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "USCIS final rule effective Feb 2026 implementing weighted selection favoring higher-skill/wage applicants"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "e
... (truncated)