← Cockpit
241_048predictionEducationAI-timing

AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing

Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
50.8%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing | this platform will be the expression platform for their art, their music, their writing, and so forth

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"
this platform will be the expression platform for their art, their music, their writing, and so forth

Predictor: Eric Schmidt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 50.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 10 fired ✓ · 1 pending
  1. 2025-06-30hitHalf of high schoolers use AI for brainstorming, editing, research
    How: College Board / Pew survey shows ~50% of high school students use AI for creative tasks (brainstorming, essay revision, research)
    Source: College Board newsroom — Majority of High School Students Use Generative AI for Schoolworkconf 95%
    Notes: HIT — ~50% high schoolers using AI tools for creative schoolwork.
  2. 2025-12-31hit31% of teens use AI to make images; 16% audio; 15% code
    How: Survey data confirms teens broadly use AI tools across creative modalities (images 31%, audio 16%, code 15%)
    Source: Programs.com — Latest AI in Education Statistics (2026)conf 90%
    Notes: HIT — Direct evidence of multimodal creative use among teens.
  3. 2025-12-31hit88% of students use generative AI for assessments in 2025
    How: Major education research (HEPI, Common Sense Media, College Board) reports >85% student GenAI adoption for schoolwork
    Source: DemandSage — 77 AI in Education Statistics 2026conf 95%
    Notes: HIT — 88% in 2025 vs 53% in 2024; high school usage rose from 79% to 84% Jan-May 2025 (College Board).
  4. 2025-12-31hitAI education market reaches $7.57B in 2025
    How: AI in education market value reaches $7.57B by EOY 2025 (up from $5.47B in 2024)
    Source: DemandSage AI in Education Statistics 2026conf 85%
    Notes: HIT — $7.57B market size confirms platform-scale adoption.
  5. 2025-06-30hitInstitutional governance gap — only 10% of schools have AI guidelines
    How: UNESCO or OECD survey shows <15% of schools globally have established AI usage guidelines
    Source: UNESCO survey cited in DemandSageconf 85%
    Notes: HIT — Only 10% of schools have established AI guidelines per UNESCO.
  6. 2025-08-01 → 2026-12-31pendingMajor LMS (Canvas, Google Classroom) ships native generative AI tutor
    How: Top-2 LMS by US K-12 share ships built-in generative AI creative/tutoring assistant available across instances
    Source: EdTech press; vendor announcementsconf 70%
    Notes: Cascade — Khanmigo (Khan Academy) already shipped; Canvas/Google Classroom adding native AI.
  7. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 51%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z50.8%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 51.9% → 50.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z51.9%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 53.7% → 51.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z53.7%-2.5pp
Network propagation: 56.2% → 53.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z56.2%-3.8pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 56.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6000.050-0.057
prereq235_038
David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trialPeter Diamandis
74.0%0.6000.050-0.055
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6000.050-0.049
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6000.050-0.039
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.037

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050+0.013
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050+0.012
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.008
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050+0.008
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.006

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "this platform will be the expression platform for their art, their music, their writing",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "this platform will be the expression platform for their art, their music, their writing, and so forth",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Half of high schoolers use AI for brainstorming, editing, research",
      "notes": "HIT — ~50% high schoolers using AI tools for creative schoolwork.",
      "source": "College Board newsroom — Majority of High School Students Use Generative AI for Schoolwork",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://newsroom.collegeboard.org/new-research-majority-high-school-students-use-generative-ai-schoolwork",
      "expected_date": "2025-07-02",
      "observed_date": "2025-06-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2025-12-31",
        "from": "2025-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "College Board / Pew survey shows ~50% of high school students use AI for creative tasks (brainstorming, essay revision, research)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "31% of teens use AI to make images; 16% audio; 15% code",
      "notes": "HIT — Direct evidence of multimodal creative use among teens.",
      "source": "Programs.com — Latest AI in Education Statistics (2026)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://programs.com/resources/ai-education-statistics/",
      "expected_date": "2025-07-02",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2025-12-31",
        "from": "2025-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Survey data confirms teens broadly use AI tools across creative modalities (images 31%, audio 16%, code 15%)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "88% of students use generative AI for assessments in 2025",
      "notes": "HIT — 88% in 2025 vs 53% in 2024; high school usage rose from 79% to 84% Jan-May 2025 (College Board).",
      "source": "DemandSage — 77 AI in Education Statistics 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.demandsage.com/ai-in-education-statistics/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Major education research (HEPI, Common Sense Media, College Board) reports >85% student GenAI adoption for schoolwork"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI education market reaches $7.57B in 2025",
      "notes": "HIT — $7.57B market size confirms platform-scale adoption.",
      "source": "DemandSage AI in Education Statistics 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.demandsage.com/ai-in-education-statistics/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "AI in education market value reaches $7.57B by EOY 2025 (up from $5.47B in 2024)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Institutional governance gap — only 10% of schools have AI guidelines",
      "notes": "HIT — Only 10% of schools have established AI guidelines per UNESCO.",
      "source": "UNESCO survey cited in DemandSage",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "
... (truncated)