Debt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ratcheting up

Debt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ratcheting up | you're starting to see um debt delinquency rates rise, mortgage delinquency rates rise, like the the personal financial distress is uh is ratcheting up.

you're starting to see um debt delinquency rates rise, mortgage delinquency rates rise, like the the personal financial distress is uh is ratcheting up.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

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  "context": "you're starting to see um debt delinquency rates rise, mortgage delinquency rates rise, like the the personal financial distress is uh is ratcheting up.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "you're starting to see um debt delinquency rates rise, mortgage delinquency rates rise, like the the personal financial distress is uh is ratcheting up.",
  "conv_cues": "starting to see; ratcheting up",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Present/near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Total household debt delinquency hits 4.8%, highest since 2017",
      "source": "Bloomberg: US Consumer Delinquencies Jump to Highest in Almost a Decade",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-10/us-consumer-delinquencies-jump-to-highest-in-almost-a-decade",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-10",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-10",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NY Fed Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit shows ≥4.5% overall delinquency rate, multi-year high"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Q4 2025 mortgage delinquency rises to 4.26% (NY Fed/MBA)",
      "notes": "HIT — 4.26% Q4 delinquency rate, +27bps QoQ +28bps YoY. Direct confirmation of Yang's 'mortgage delinquency rates rise' claim.",
      "source": "MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2025",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2026/02/12/mortgage-delinquencies-increase-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2025",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-12",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-12",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Mortgage Bankers Association reports total mortgage delinquency rate ≥4.0% for Q4 2025, up YoY"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "FHA delinquency rate breaches 11% (highest since 2021)",
      "notes": "FHA hit 11.52%, highest since Q2 2021.",
      "source": "MBA Q4 2025 National Delinquency Survey via MortgagePoint",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://themortgagepoint.com/2026/02/11/consumer-delinquencies-at-highest-level-in-nearly-a-decade/",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-12",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-11",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "MBA reports FHA loan delinquency rate ≥10%, signaling lower-income borrower stress"
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