Screworm will decimate US cattle and bison industry

Screworm will decimate US cattle and bison industry | It's coming up through Honduras and Mexico. It's now in southern Texas. Uh it it is going to decimate our cattle and and bison industry.

It's coming up through Honduras and Mexico. It's now in southern Texas. Uh it it is going to decimate our cattle and and bison industry.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "Texas has just declared it as as a national emergency uh is the screworm. It's a... It's coming up through Honduras and Mexico. It's now in southern Texas. Uh it it is going to decimate our cattle and and bison industry.",
  "verbatim": "It's coming up through Honduras and Mexico. It's now in southern Texas. Uh it it is going to decimate our cattle and and bison industry.",
  "conv_cues": "is going to decimate",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "timeframe": "Near future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Texas issues disaster declaration over screwworm threat",
      "source": "https://www.aaha.org/trends-magazine/publications/new-world-screwworm-poses-significant-threat/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.aaha.org/trends-magazine/publications/new-world-screwworm-poses-significant-threat/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-17",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-05-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Texas Governor or Animal Health Commission issues formal disaster declaration or emergency preparation for NWS"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "USDA breaks ground on Texas sterile-fly facility",
      "notes": "HIT — federal infrastructure response signals official threat assessment.",
      "source": "https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/livestock/article/2026/04/17/usda-groundbreaking-marks-step-new",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/livestock/article/2026/04/17/usda-groundbreaking-marks-step-new",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-17",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "USDA holds public groundbreaking on Texas sterile NWS fly production facility (100M flies/wk stage 1 target)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "USDA confirms NWS case <60 miles from US border (Nuevo Leon)",
      "notes": "HIT — closest NWS has come to US since 1966 eradication. Active 8-case state cluster in Nuevo Leon.",
      "source": "https://www.oklahomafarmreport.com/2026/04/24/new-world-screwworm-fears-grow-as-cases-explode-in-northern-mexico/ — Nuevo Leon case 60 miles from border",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.oklahomafarmreport.com/2026/04/24/new-world-screwworm-fears-grow-as-cases-explode-in-northern-mexico/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-22",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-22",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "USDA APHIS confirms New World Screwworm active case within 100 miles of Texas border in Nuevo Leon, Mexico"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First confirmed NWS case in continental US livestock (TX/AZ/NM)",
      "source": "USDA APHIS Stop Screwworm dashboard",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "USDA APHIS reports first
... (truncated)