New car manufacturing demand will collapse by ~50% due to AV utilization

New car manufacturing demand will collapse by ~50% due to AV utilization | Today, we make close to 100 million new cars a year. And they sit empty 94% of the time. So, even if you drop that by 50% in utility, you basically collapse the need for past the car industry instantly

Today, we make close to 100 million new cars a year. And they sit empty 94% of the time. So, even if you drop that by 50% in utility, you basically collapse the need for past the car industry instantly

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "50% drop",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "even if you drop that by 50% in utility, you basically collapse the need for past the car industry instantly",
  "verbatim": "Today, we make close to 100 million new cars a year. And they sit empty 94% of the time. So, even if you drop that by 50% in utility, you basically collapse the need for past the car industry instantly",
  "conv_cues": "collapse the need",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "timeframe": "unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Waymo crosses 1M weekly paid robotaxi rides",
      "source": "Waymo executive guidance 2026 (3,000 vehicles, 500K weekly rides target → 1M EOY)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://carboncredits.com/waymo-hits-2500-robotaxi-in-u-s-the-future-of-driverless-rides/",
      "expected_date": "2027-01-30",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Waymo (or Alphabet) discloses >=1,000,000 paid rider-only rides per week, sustained for >=4 weeks"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-11-08",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Global robotaxi fleet exceeds 100,000 vehicles",
      "source": "Patentpc/programming-helper 934K-by-2035 forecast + 82.6% CAGR",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2029-09-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
        "from": "2028-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Industry tracker confirms >=100,000 commercial robotaxis operating globally (rider-only) per IIHS, SAE, or independent benchmark"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Commercial robotaxi cost per mile drops below private-car ownership cost",
      "source": "Required precondition for utilization-collapse hypothesis",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "expected_date": "2029-09-30",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2031-06-30",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Independent analysis (AAA, Edmunds, MIT) confirms average robotaxi $/mile pricing falls below total cost of ownership of average new vehicle"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First top-10 auto OEM cuts new-model production volume by >=10% citing AV substitution",
      "source": "Salim Ismail collapse thesis + scaling AV deployment",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2029-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2031-12-31",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Public 8-K or annual report from top-10 global OEM cites AV/robotaxi substitution as material reason for cutting model-year volume by >=10%"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2031-05-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "US new car sales fall below 12M units (from ~16M baseline) in single year",
 
... (truncated)