AI chips are 2 kilowatts each - requires water cooling
Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source
Prediction text
AI chips are 2 kilowatts each - requires water cooling | The chips are 2 kilowatts. I mean, this is insane. These things will kill you
Verbatim quote
The chips are 2 kilowatts. I mean, this is insane. These things will kill you
Predictor: Eric Schmidt
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
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Probability over time
Milestone chain
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.090 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.089 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.035 |
| prereq | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated — Jensen Huang | 86.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.018 |
| prereq | SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 20 — Jensen Huang | 85.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.016 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit — Peter Diamandis | 48.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.108 |
| prereq | 231_039 Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-cons — Peter Diamandis | 47.2% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.099 |
| prereq | 248_033 Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compa — Dave Blundin | 36.7% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.022 |
| prereq | 242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis | 36.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.011 |
| prereq | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does — Dave Blundin | 40.8% | 0.720 | 0.050 | +0.002 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (2)
Prerequisites (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_023 | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 231_039 | Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_006 | The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_033 | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. | AI | — |
Linked documents (3)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.558 | fda | FDA ANDA218364: LEVETIRACETAM IN SODIUM CHLORIDE (LEVETIRACETAM) — MYLAN LABS LTD | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-08 |
| 0.550 | codex_research_pack | NVIDIA - Rubin Platform, Open Models, Autonomous Driving at CES | — | corroborates | pending | 2026-01-06 |
| 0.550 | codex_research_pack | NVIDIA - Vera Rubin Opens Agentic AI Frontier | — | corroborates | pending | 2026-03-16 |
Raw metadata
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"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
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"active_end_month
... (truncated)