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241_053predictionAINVIDIA

AI chips are 2 kilowatts each - requires water cooling

Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
54.3%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
Edges in / out
5 / 5
Tickers exposed
30

Prediction text

AI chips are 2 kilowatts each - requires water cooling | The chips are 2 kilowatts. I mean, this is insane. These things will kill you

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"
The chips are 2 kilowatts. I mean, this is insane. These things will kill you

Predictor: Eric Schmidt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 54.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 1 pending

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 54%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z54.3%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 55.3% → 54.3%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z55.3%-1.7pp
Network propagation: 57.0% → 55.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z57.0%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 59.8% → 57.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z59.8%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 62.0% → 59.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z62.0%-3.0pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 62.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.6500.050-0.090
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.6500.050-0.089
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.650+0.035
prereqSEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated Jensen Huang
86.1%0.6500.050+0.018
prereqSEM_011
Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 20Jensen Huang
85.5%0.6500.050+0.016

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq230_006
The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit Peter Diamandis
48.0%0.6500.050-0.108
prereq231_039
Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-consPeter Diamandis
47.2%0.6500.050-0.099
prereq248_033
Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compaDave Blundin
36.7%0.6000.050-0.022
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
36.1%0.6500.050+0.011
prereq247_023
AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does Dave Blundin
40.8%0.7200.050+0.002

Ticker exposure

30 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

ALABAMBAARMASMLCEVACRWVIRENMUNBISNVDASITMTSMQCOMAMDANETMRVLNXPIATEYYAVGOCSCODELLSIEGYAMATLNVGY

Adverse (2)

AMDINTC

Prerequisites (5)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq247_023AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyAI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks
prereq231_039Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.AI
prereq230_006The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.AI
prereq248_033Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.AI

Linked documents (3)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.558fdaFDA ANDA218364: LEVETIRACETAM IN SODIUM CHLORIDE (LEVETIRACETAM) — MYLAN LABS LTDmentionspending2026-05-08
0.550codex_research_packNVIDIA - Rubin Platform, Open Models, Autonomous Driving at CEScorroboratespending2026-01-06
0.550codex_research_packNVIDIA - Vera Rubin Opens Agentic AI Frontiercorroboratespending2026-03-16

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "2 kW per chip",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "The chips are 2 kilowatts",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "The chips are 2 kilowatts. I mean, this is insane. These things will kill you",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "present",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "SEM_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "AI chips are 2 kilowatts each - requires water cooling",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "241_053",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-01",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "230_006",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-24",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "231_039",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "248_033",
      "expected_date": "2028-07-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "242_031",
      "expected_date": "2030-09-27",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 2,
  "affiliation": "former Google CEO",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 241,
  "granularity": "YEAR",
  "target_date": "2026-06-15",
  "display_date": "2026-07-01",
  "episode_date": "2026-03-24",
  "parse_method": "YEAR midpoint",
  "domain_bucket": "AI",
  "episode_title": "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage",
  "fault_line_id": "F003, F007, F008",
  "flag_repeated": true,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "appears_in_eps": "235, 241",
  "consensus_size": 6,
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 5,
  "priority_weight": 4,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C1",
    "C2",
    "C3"
  ],
  "active_end_month
... (truncated)