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231_021predictionConsumerAI-timing

Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#231 "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231" · source

Prior probability
70.0%
Current probability
59.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. | I think privacy is cooked. I mean, we're going to have every major open AI and Google and everybody's going to be having, you know, wearables that are recording all the time, all the time. And we're going to have, you know, micro drones. I mean, we're going to be we're going to be gathering data all the time.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231"
I think privacy is cooked. I mean, we're going to have every major open AI and Google and everybody's going to be having, you know, wearables that are recording all the time, all the time. And we're going to have, you know, micro drones. I mean, we're going to be we're going to be gathering data all the time.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 70%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 59.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 fired ✓ · 4 pending
  1. 2025-09-30hitMeta Ray-Ban Display launches with always-listening AI assistant ($799)
    How: Meta begins commercial sale of Ray-Ban Display glasses with neural band and Hey-Meta voice activation
    Source: https://www.meta.com/ai-glasses/meta-ray-ban-display/ — Meta product pageconf 99%
  2. 2026-09-01 → 2026-12-31pendingApple smart glasses targeting late-2026 launch
    How: Apple ships AI-powered smart glasses to consumers (Bloomberg/Gurman tracking)
    Source: https://www.techtimes.com/articles/310685/20250609/apples-ai-smart-glasses-set-disrupt-market-2026-can-it-beat-metas-ray-bans-heres-how.htmconf 55%
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingRay-Ban Meta Gen 3 ships with continuous-AI / face-recognition modes
    How: Meta launches Gen 3 Ray-Ban with multi-hour continuous AI session + Live AI super-sensing
    Source: https://www.uploadvr.com/next-gen-ray-ban-meta-2026-super-sensing-facial-recognition-live-ai/conf 70%
  4. 2027-01-01 → 2028-06-30pendingU.S. or EU enacts always-on wearable recording disclosure rules
    How: Federal/state/EU rule requires explicit recording-indicator standards for AI wearables (response to privacy concern)
    Source: EU AI Act, U.S. state biometrics rules trackerconf 40%
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingThree+ FAANG-tier vendors ship always-on AI wearables concurrently
    How: Meta, Apple, Google (or Samsung/OpenAI-Ive) all have AI-recording wearables in market simultaneously
    Source: Industry tracker (Counterpoint, IDC) wearables categoryconf 60%
  6. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 59%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z59.2%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 60.6% → 59.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z60.6%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 62.7% → 60.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z62.7%-3.0pp
Network propagation: 65.7% → 62.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z65.7%-4.3pp
Network propagation: 70.0% → 65.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.7000.050-0.068
prereq235_038
David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trialPeter Diamandis
74.0%0.7000.050-0.065
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.7000.050-0.059
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.7000.050-0.047
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.700+0.043

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.066
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050+0.057
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050+0.054
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050+0.053
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050+0.044

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2031-03-31[Labor/Policy 2031-03] employment rate; Yang quarterly updates [231_021] Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micr [238_064] BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updatespending

Linked documents (8)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "I think privacy is cooked. I mean, we're going to have every major open AI and Google and everybody's going to be having, you know, wearables that are recording all the time, all the time. And we're going to have, you know, micro drones.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "I think privacy is cooked. I mean, we're going to have every major open AI and Google and everybody's going to be having, you know, wearables that are recording all the time, all the time. And we're going to have, you know, micro drones. I mean, we're going to be we're going to be gathering data all the time.",
  "conv_cues": "cooked; going to have",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Meta Ray-Ban Display launches with always-listening AI assistant ($799)",
      "source": "https://www.meta.com/ai-glasses/meta-ray-ban-display/ — Meta product page",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.meta.com/ai-glasses/meta-ray-ban-display/",
      "expected_date": "2025-09-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Meta begins commercial sale of Ray-Ban Display glasses with neural band and Hey-Meta voice activation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Apple smart glasses targeting late-2026 launch",
      "source": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/310685/20250609/apples-ai-smart-glasses-set-disrupt-market-2026-can-it-beat-metas-ray-bans-heres-how.htm",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/310685/20250609/apples-ai-smart-glasses-set-disrupt-market-2026-can-it-beat-metas-ray-bans-heres-how.htm",
      "expected_date": "2026-10-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Apple ships AI-powered smart glasses to consumers (Bloomberg/Gurman tracking)"
    },
    {
      "kind"
... (truncated)