College bankruptcy rate will skyrocket
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source
Prediction text
College bankruptcy rate will skyrocket | We've seen in fact uh the bankruptcy rate in colleges uh start to skyrocket right because who wants to get that much of a you know debt and like you said the majority the highest the the group with the highest unemployment rate is college graduates.
Verbatim quote
We've seen in fact uh the bankruptcy rate in colleges uh start to skyrocket right because who wants to get that much of a you know debt and like you said the majority the highest the the group with the highest unemployment rate is college graduates.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-12-31hitAt least 16 US nonprofit colleges close or merge in 2025How: BestColleges or Inside Higher Ed tracker reports >=16 nonprofit US college closures or mergers in calendar year 2025Source: https://www.thecollegefix.com/16-colleges-closed-in-2025-and-more-could-shut-down-in-2026/conf 99%Notes: HIT — 16 nonprofit colleges closed in 2025 due to enrollment + financial challenges.
- 2026-04-28hitMajor HBCU files Chapter 11 bankruptcyHow: Saint Augustine's University or peer HBCU files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy as documented in court recordsSource: https://www.insidehighered.com/news/business/financial-health/2026/04/28/saint-augustines-declares-bankruptcy-wont-closeconf 99%Notes: HIT — Saint Augustine's University declared bankruptcy April 2026; enrollment fell from ~1,000 to ~150.
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingNumber of US colleges with D-grade financial health exceeds 200How: Forbes Financial Grade analysis (annual) reports >=200 colleges receiving D grade for financial healthSource: Forbes annual college financial-grade analysisconf 85%Notes: Already at 182 in 2024 (vs 20 in 2021); trajectory points to >200 by 2026-27.
- 2026-04-01hitMulti-college bankruptcy in 2026: at least 8 colleges closed by year-endHow: Cumulative count of US colleges ceasing operations or announcing closure for 2026 calendar year >=8 by Dec 31Source: https://thecollegeinvestor.com/79342/8-colleges-closing-in-2026-full-list-of-closures/conf 95%Notes: HIT — 8 colleges already announced closures for 2026 by Q1; pace likely to accelerate.
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAnnual closure count rises to >=25 by 2027How: Inside Higher Ed or NCES reports >=25 nonprofit college closures in single calendar year (2026 or 2027)Source: Inside Higher Ed, BestColleges closure trackerconf 65%Notes: Phila Fed worst-case model projects up to 80/yr; reaching 25 in single year is the inflection signal.
- 2027-12-31 → 2029-12-31pendingDemographic cliff produces >=10% undergraduate enrollment decline 2025-2029How: NCES/IPEDS data shows national undergraduate enrollment >=10% lower than 2024 baselineSource: https://www.educationnext.org/colleges-are-closing-who-might-be-next-how-machine-learning-fill-data-gaps-forecast-future/conf 60%Notes: Demographic cliff sized at up to 15% drop 2025-2029 per Education Next analysis.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.063 |
| prereq | 235_038 David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trial — Peter Diamandis | 74.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.060 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.054 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.043 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.040 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.037 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.034 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.033 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.032 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.019 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Host",
"context": "We've seen in fact uh the bankruptcy rate in colleges uh start to skyrocket right because who wants to get that much of a you know debt",
"to_year": 2028,
"verbatim": "We've seen in fact uh the bankruptcy rate in colleges uh start to skyrocket right because who wants to get that much of a you know debt and like you said the majority the highest the the group with the highest unemployment rate is college graduates.",
"conv_cues": "start to skyrocket",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "Present/near-term",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "At least 16 US nonprofit colleges close or merge in 2025",
"notes": "HIT — 16 nonprofit colleges closed in 2025 due to enrollment + financial challenges.",
"source": "https://www.thecollegefix.com/16-colleges-closed-in-2025-and-more-could-shut-down-in-2026/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.thecollegefix.com/16-colleges-closed-in-2025-and-more-could-shut-down-in-2026/",
"expected_date": "2025-12-31",
"observed_date": "2025-12-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "BestColleges or Inside Higher Ed tracker reports >=16 nonprofit US college closures or mergers in calendar year 2025"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
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"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
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"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
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"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
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"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "235_038",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Major HBCU files Chapter 11 bankruptcy",
"notes": "HIT — Saint Augustine's University declared bankruptcy April 2026; enrollment fell from ~1,000 to ~150.",
"source": "https://www.insidehighered.com/news/business/financial-health/2026/04/28/saint-augustines-declares-bankruptcy-wont-close",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.insidehighered.com/news/business/financial-health/2026/04/28/saint-augustines-declares-bankruptcy-wont-close",
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"observed_date": "2026-04-28",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Saint Augustine's University or peer HBCU files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy as documented in court r
... (truncated)