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236_026predictionEducationAI-timing

College bankruptcy rate will skyrocket

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
55.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

College bankruptcy rate will skyrocket | We've seen in fact uh the bankruptcy rate in colleges uh start to skyrocket right because who wants to get that much of a you know debt and like you said the majority the highest the the group with the highest unemployment rate is college graduates.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236"
We've seen in fact uh the bankruptcy rate in colleges uh start to skyrocket right because who wants to get that much of a you know debt and like you said the majority the highest the the group with the highest unemployment rate is college graduates.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 55.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 8 fired ✓ · 2 pending
  1. 2025-12-31hitAt least 16 US nonprofit colleges close or merge in 2025
    How: BestColleges or Inside Higher Ed tracker reports >=16 nonprofit US college closures or mergers in calendar year 2025
    Source: https://www.thecollegefix.com/16-colleges-closed-in-2025-and-more-could-shut-down-in-2026/conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — 16 nonprofit colleges closed in 2025 due to enrollment + financial challenges.
  2. 2026-04-28hitMajor HBCU files Chapter 11 bankruptcy
    How: Saint Augustine's University or peer HBCU files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy as documented in court records
    Source: https://www.insidehighered.com/news/business/financial-health/2026/04/28/saint-augustines-declares-bankruptcy-wont-closeconf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Saint Augustine's University declared bankruptcy April 2026; enrollment fell from ~1,000 to ~150.
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingNumber of US colleges with D-grade financial health exceeds 200
    How: Forbes Financial Grade analysis (annual) reports >=200 colleges receiving D grade for financial health
    Source: Forbes annual college financial-grade analysisconf 85%
    Notes: Already at 182 in 2024 (vs 20 in 2021); trajectory points to >200 by 2026-27.
  4. 2026-04-01hitMulti-college bankruptcy in 2026: at least 8 colleges closed by year-end
    How: Cumulative count of US colleges ceasing operations or announcing closure for 2026 calendar year >=8 by Dec 31
    Source: https://thecollegeinvestor.com/79342/8-colleges-closing-in-2026-full-list-of-closures/conf 95%
    Notes: HIT — 8 colleges already announced closures for 2026 by Q1; pace likely to accelerate.
  5. 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAnnual closure count rises to >=25 by 2027
    How: Inside Higher Ed or NCES reports >=25 nonprofit college closures in single calendar year (2026 or 2027)
    Source: Inside Higher Ed, BestColleges closure trackerconf 65%
    Notes: Phila Fed worst-case model projects up to 80/yr; reaching 25 in single year is the inflection signal.
  6. 2027-12-31 → 2029-12-31pendingDemographic cliff produces >=10% undergraduate enrollment decline 2025-2029
    How: NCES/IPEDS data shows national undergraduate enrollment >=10% lower than 2024 baseline
    Source: https://www.educationnext.org/colleges-are-closing-who-might-be-next-how-machine-learning-fill-data-gaps-forecast-future/conf 60%
    Notes: Demographic cliff sized at up to 15% drop 2025-2029 per Education Next analysis.
  7. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 55%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z55.0%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 56.3% → 55.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z56.3%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 58.2% → 56.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z58.2%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 60.9% → 58.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z60.9%-4.1pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 60.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6500.050-0.063
prereq235_038
David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trialPeter Diamandis
74.0%0.6500.050-0.060
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6500.050-0.054
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6500.050-0.043
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.650+0.040

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.037
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050+0.034
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050+0.033
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050+0.032
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050+0.019

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "We've seen in fact uh the bankruptcy rate in colleges uh start to skyrocket right because who wants to get that much of a you know debt",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "We've seen in fact uh the bankruptcy rate in colleges uh start to skyrocket right because who wants to get that much of a you know debt and like you said the majority the highest the the group with the highest unemployment rate is college graduates.",
  "conv_cues": "start to skyrocket",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Present/near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "At least 16 US nonprofit colleges close or merge in 2025",
      "notes": "HIT — 16 nonprofit colleges closed in 2025 due to enrollment + financial challenges.",
      "source": "https://www.thecollegefix.com/16-colleges-closed-in-2025-and-more-could-shut-down-in-2026/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.thecollegefix.com/16-colleges-closed-in-2025-and-more-could-shut-down-in-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "BestColleges or Inside Higher Ed tracker reports >=16 nonprofit US college closures or mergers in calendar year 2025"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Major HBCU files Chapter 11 bankruptcy",
      "notes": "HIT — Saint Augustine's University declared bankruptcy April 2026; enrollment fell from ~1,000 to ~150.",
      "source": "https://www.insidehighered.com/news/business/financial-health/2026/04/28/saint-augustines-declares-bankruptcy-wont-close",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.insidehighered.com/news/business/financial-health/2026/04/28/saint-augustines-declares-bankruptcy-wont-close",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-28",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Saint Augustine's University or peer HBCU files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy as documented in court r
... (truncated)