TSMC CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity must expand to 125,000 wafers/month by 2026 to meet baseline demand from NVIDIA, AMD, and hyperscaler ASICs.

TSMC CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity must expand to 125,000 wafers/month by 2026 to meet baseline demand from NVIDIA, AMD, and hyperscaler ASICs. | TSMC CoWoS monthly capacity disclosures

Key catalyst: TSMC CoWoS monthly capacity disclosures

Watch events: TSMC CoWoS monthly capacity; advanced-packaging equipment shipments.

TSMC CoWoS capacity ~70k WPM end-2025; on-track expansion toward 120-130k WPM end-2026 per TSMC capex guidance.

Beneficiaries (24)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "125k wafers/mo",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "context": "Advanced packaging is the second binding constraint behind HBM; CoWoS is the architectural glue for AI silicon.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "cited_by": "Synthesis report",
  "conv_cues": "specific capacity; MS research",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "by 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NVIDIA secures ≥50% of TSMC CoWoS capacity for 2026-27",
      "source": "DigiTimes — TSMC expands CoWoS capacity with Nvidia booking over half for 2026-27",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "source_url": "https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20251210PD218/tsmc-cowos-capacity-nvidia-equipment.html",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-10",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-10",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "DigiTimes / Wedbush / Astute Group reporting confirms NVIDIA holds 50%+ of TSMC's projected CoWoS capacity for 2026-27"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "TSMC pivots toward CoWoS-L using Local Silicon Interconnect bridge architecture",
      "source": "TokenRing/FinancialContent — The Great Packaging Pivot (Jan 2026)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/tokenring-2026-1-1-the-great-packaging-pivot-how-tsmc-is-doubling-cowos-capacity-to-break-the-ai-supply-bottleneck-through-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "TSMC publicly confirms CoWoS-L (LSI Bridge) as core packaging technology to enable larger AI chips beyond reticle limit"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AMD allocated ~11% of CoWoS capacity for MI350/MI400 ramp",
      "source": "Wedbush — The Great AI Packaging Squeeze",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://investor.wedbush.com/wedbush/article/tokenring-2026-1-20-the-great-ai-packaging-squeeze-nvidia-secures-50-of-tsmc-capacity-as-sk-hynix-breaks-ground-on-p-and-t7",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-20",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-20",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "AMD's CoWoS allocation publicly disclosed at ~11% (vs NVIDIA 50%+, Broadcom remainder)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-07",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "TSMC US-Arizona advanced packaging capacity expansion announced",
      "source": "CNBC — Nvidia snaps up AI chip packaging capacity as TSMC expands in U.S.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/08/tsmc-nvidia-advanced-packaging-intel.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-08",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-08",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "TSMC announces US-based advanced packaging line expansion specifically for AI customers"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-11",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at":
... (truncated)