242_052predictionAIAI-scaling

Cost of chip shortage will be sole gating factor delaying illegal-human-driving tipping point

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#242 "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242" · source

Prior probability

60.0%

Current probability

46.2%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31

Edges in / out

6 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Cost of chip shortage will be sole gating factor delaying illegal-human-driving tipping point | the thing that would make it later is purely the shortage of chips. Like the technology will be there and the demand will be there long before the chips are there

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242"

the thing that would make it later is purely the shortage of chips. Like the technology will be there and the demand will be there long before the chips are there

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.821

Brier

0.0491

excellent

Hits / Misses

3 / 2

of 9 resolved

Hit rate

33.3%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 46.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 6 pending

2026-04-30hitTSMC CEO confirms AI chip shortages persist beyond 2027
How: TSMC executive (CEO C.C. Wei or equivalent) publicly states advanced-node shortages will persist beyond 2027
Source: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/111178/tsmc-cant-keep-up-with-ai-chip-demand-with-shortages-projected-to-last-beyond-2027/index.htmlconf 95%
2026-04-30hitNVIDIA locks >50% of TSMC advanced capacity through 2027
How: Trade press/analyst reporting confirms NVIDIA controls >50% of TSMC advanced-node capacity through 2026-2027
Source: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/111178/tsmc-cant-keep-up-with-ai-chip-demand-with-shortages-projected-to-last-beyond-2027/index.htmlconf 90%
2026-10-29pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-12-31 → 2027-03-31pending600K vehicles lost in 2026 due to chip scarcity (UBS forecast)
How: Annual vehicle production figures show >=500K vehicle shortfall vs prior plan attributable to AI/auto-chip shortage
Source: https://enkiai.com/ai-market-intelligence/semiconductor-scarcity-2026-the-ai-vs-auto-chip-war/conf 70%
2027-04-30pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
2027-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingTSMC Tainan + Arizona fabs reach volume production
How: TSMC publicly confirms volume production at new Tainan (H1 2027) and Arizona (H2 2027) fabs
Source: https://dataconomy.com/2026/03/31/tsmcs-advanced-chip-capacity-is-booked-out-through-2028/conf 70%
2026-09-01 → 2028-06-30pendingRobotaxi fleet expansion explicitly chip-constrained in public disclosures
How: >=1 major robotaxi operator (Waymo/Tesla/Zoox/Uber) publicly attributes deployment delay to autonomous-vehicle chip supply
Source: https://enkiai.com/ai-market-intelligence/semiconductor-scarcity-2026-the-ai-vs-auto-chip-war/conf 45%
Notes: Critical for Blundin's claim — chips as SOLE gating factor. Lower confidence because demand-side and regulatory factors equally constrain rollout.
2027-10-29pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2028-04-29pendingCost of chip shortage will be sole gating factor delaying illegal-human-driving tipping point

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 46%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z46.2%-1.9pp

Network propagation: 48.1% → 46.2%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z48.1%-3.7pp

Network propagation: 51.8% → 48.1%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z51.8%-2.8pp

Network propagation: 54.6% → 51.8%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z54.6%-5.4pp

Network propagation: 60.0% → 54.6%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	35.0%	0.600	0.050	-0.219
killer	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	10.0%	0.050	0.600	+0.083
killer	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	12.0%	0.050	0.600	+0.072
killer	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	15.0%	0.050	0.600	+0.056
killer	TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	35.0%	0.050	0.600	-0.054

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MU WULF IREN EQIX ALAB APLD ASMIY ASML PLAB NVDA NBIS CRWV AAPL AMT AMZN DELL GOOGL IRM LNVGY META MSFT ORCL SFTBY STX

Adverse (6)

ACN GEN CHGG IBM WNS LRN

Prerequisites (6)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	S_AGI_MID_2029	AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	—
killer	TK09	Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	—	—
killer	TK05	Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	—
killer	TK01	AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	—
killer	TK02	AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	—
killer	TK03	AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "the thing that would make it later is purely the shortage of chips. Like the technology will be there and the demand will be there long before the chips are there",
  "verbatim": "the thing that would make it later is purely the shortage of chips. Like the technology will be there and the demand will be there long before the chips are there",
  "conv_cues": "purely",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "TSMC CEO confirms AI chip shortages persist beyond 2027",
      "source": "https://www.tweaktown.com/news/111178/tsmc-cant-keep-up-with-ai-chip-demand-with-shortages-projected-to-last-beyond-2027/index.html",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.tweaktown.com/news/111178/tsmc-cant-keep-up-with-ai-chip-demand-with-shortages-projected-to-last-beyond-2027/index.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "TSMC executive (CEO C.C. Wei or equivalent) publicly states advanced-node shortages will persist beyond 2027"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NVIDIA locks >50% of TSMC advanced capacity through 2027",
      "source": "https://www.tweaktown.com/news/111178/tsmc-cant-keep-up-with-ai-chip-demand-with-shortages-projected-to-last-beyond-2027/index.html",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.tweaktown.com/news/111178/tsmc-cant-keep-up-with-ai-chip-demand-with-shortages-projected-to-last-beyond-2027/index.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Trade press/analyst reporting confirms NVIDIA controls >50% of TSMC advanced-node capacity through 2026-2027"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-29",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "600K vehicles lost in 2026 due to chip scarcity (UBS forecast)",
      "source": "https://enkiai.com/ai-market-intelligence/semiconductor-scarcity-2026-the-ai-vs-auto-chip-war/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://enkiai.com/ai-market-intelligence/semiconductor-scarcity-2026-the-ai-vs-auto-chip-war/",
      "expected_date": "2027-02-14",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-03-31",
        "from": "2026-12-31"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Annual vehicle production figures show >=500K vehicle shortfall vs prior plan attributable to AI/auto-chip shortage"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-04-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "TSMC Tainan + Arizona fabs reach volume production",
      "source": "https://dataconomy.com/2026/03/31/tsmcs-advanced-chip-capacity-is-booked-out-through-2028/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://dataconomy.com/2026/03/31/tsmcs-advanced-chip-capacity-is-booked-out-through-2028/",
      "expected_date": "2027-07-02",
      "res
... (truncated)