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238_014predictionAIAI-scaling

Everything is becoming software and super-intelligent coding models can do anything in the physical world

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
38.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31
Edges in / out
6 / 0
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Everything is becoming software and super-intelligent coding models can do anything in the physical world | The minute crisper arrived and you could edit the human genome, the human body becomes a software engineering problem. It's all just a software problem. At which point a coding model can do essentially anything in the physical world.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238"
The minute crisper arrived and you could edit the human genome, the human body becomes a software engineering problem. It's all just a software problem. At which point a coding model can do essentially anything in the physical world.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 38.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 6 pending
  1. 2026-01-01hit150+ active CRISPR clinical trials globally
    How: ≥150 active CRISPR-based gene-editing therapy trials registered globally
    Source: https://innovativegenomics.org/news/crispr-clinical-trials-2026/conf 95%
  2. 2026-04-01hitCasgevy (CRISPR/Cas9) approved in 10+ jurisdictions
    How: Casgevy approved in US, UK, EU, Canada, Switzerland, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE
    Source: https://innovativegenomics.org/news/crispr-clinical-trials-2026/ — IGI 2026 updateconf 95%
  3. 2026-11-17pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFirst in vivo CRISPR therapy approved (LNP/AAV delivery)
    How: FDA or EMA approves first in vivo (non-ex-vivo) CRISPR therapy using LNP or viral delivery
    Source: FDA approvals tracker, CRISPR Therapeutics + Intellia + Verve pipelinesconf 55%
    Notes: In vivo delivery is the inflection point Wissner-Gross's thesis depends on — converts genome editing into a deliverable software target.
  5. 2027-06-06pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  6. 2026-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingAI/ML guide-RNA design tools become standard in CRISPR submissions
    How: ≥50% of new CRISPR INDs cite AI/ML-designed guide RNAs (per FDA submissions or peer-reviewed audit)
    Source: Nature Biotech, FDA INDsconf 55%
  7. 2027-12-24pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  8. 2027-06-01 → 2029-03-31pendingCoding-model-driven autonomous robotics protocol executes wet-lab gene-editing experiment end-to-end
    How: Peer-reviewed paper or industry release shows LLM-driven robotic protocol designs+executes a full CRISPR experiment without manual intervention
    Source: Nature/Science publications, Emerald Cloud Lab + Insitro + Recursion releasesconf 40%
    Notes: Direct embodiment of Wissner-Gross's claim that 'a coding model can do essentially anything in the physical world'.

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 38%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z38.5%-1.6pp
Network propagation: 40.0% → 38.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z40.0%-3.1pp
Network propagation: 43.2% → 40.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z43.2%-2.3pp
Network propagation: 45.5% → 43.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z45.5%-4.5pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 45.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_AGI_MID_2029
AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path
35.0%0.5000.050-0.177
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.500+0.070
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.500+0.061
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.500+0.048
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.500-0.042

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (6)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqS_AGI_MID_2029AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 pathagi_general_capability
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Everything's becoming software and when we have super intelligence solving all disease it's a software problem... Everything's becoming software. The minute crisper arrived and you could edit the human genome, the human body becomes a software engineering problem. It's all just a software problem. At which point a coding model can do essentially anything in the physical world.",
  "verbatim": "The minute crisper arrived and you could edit the human genome, the human body becomes a software engineering problem. It's all just a software problem. At which point a coding model can do essentially anything in the physical world.",
  "conv_cues": "essentially anything",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "150+ active CRISPR clinical trials globally",
      "source": "https://innovativegenomics.org/news/crispr-clinical-trials-2026/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://innovativegenomics.org/news/crispr-clinical-trials-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "≥150 active CRISPR-based gene-editing therapy trials registered globally"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Casgevy (CRISPR/Cas9) approved in 10+ jurisdictions",
      "source": "https://innovativegenomics.org/news/crispr-clinical-trials-2026/ — IGI 2026 update",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://innovativegenomics.org/news/crispr-clinical-trials-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Casgevy approved in US, UK, EU, Canada, Switzerland, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-11-17",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First in vivo CRISPR therapy approved (LNP/AAV delivery)",
      "notes": "In vivo delivery is the inflection point Wissner-Gross's thesis depends on — converts genome editing into a deliverable software target.",
      "source": "FDA approvals tracker, CRISPR Therapeutics + Intellia + Verve pipelines",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "FDA or EMA approves first in vivo (non-ex-vivo) CRISPR therapy using LNP or viral delivery"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-06-06",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI/ML guide-RNA design tools become standard in CRISPR submissions",
      "source": "Nature Biotech, FDA INDs",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2027-09-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "≥50% of new CRISPR INDs cite AI/ML-designed guide RNAs (p
... (truncated)