Everything is becoming software and super-intelligent coding models can do anything in the physical world
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source
Prediction text
Everything is becoming software and super-intelligent coding models can do anything in the physical world | The minute crisper arrived and you could edit the human genome, the human body becomes a software engineering problem. It's all just a software problem. At which point a coding model can do essentially anything in the physical world.
Verbatim quote
The minute crisper arrived and you could edit the human genome, the human body becomes a software engineering problem. It's all just a software problem. At which point a coding model can do essentially anything in the physical world.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-01hit150+ active CRISPR clinical trials globallyHow: ≥150 active CRISPR-based gene-editing therapy trials registered globallySource: https://innovativegenomics.org/news/crispr-clinical-trials-2026/conf 95%
- 2026-04-01hitCasgevy (CRISPR/Cas9) approved in 10+ jurisdictionsHow: Casgevy approved in US, UK, EU, Canada, Switzerland, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAESource: https://innovativegenomics.org/news/crispr-clinical-trials-2026/ — IGI 2026 updateconf 95%
- 2026-11-17pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFirst in vivo CRISPR therapy approved (LNP/AAV delivery)How: FDA or EMA approves first in vivo (non-ex-vivo) CRISPR therapy using LNP or viral deliverySource: FDA approvals tracker, CRISPR Therapeutics + Intellia + Verve pipelinesconf 55%Notes: In vivo delivery is the inflection point Wissner-Gross's thesis depends on — converts genome editing into a deliverable software target.
- 2027-06-06pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingAI/ML guide-RNA design tools become standard in CRISPR submissionsHow: ≥50% of new CRISPR INDs cite AI/ML-designed guide RNAs (per FDA submissions or peer-reviewed audit)Source: Nature Biotech, FDA INDsconf 55%
- 2027-12-24pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2027-06-01 → 2029-03-31pendingCoding-model-driven autonomous robotics protocol executes wet-lab gene-editing experiment end-to-endHow: Peer-reviewed paper or industry release shows LLM-driven robotic protocol designs+executes a full CRISPR experiment without manual interventionSource: Nature/Science publications, Emerald Cloud Lab + Insitro + Recursion releasesconf 40%Notes: Direct embodiment of Wissner-Gross's claim that 'a coding model can do essentially anything in the physical world'.
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | 35.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.177 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.070 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.061 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.048 |
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | -0.042 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (6)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_MID_2029 | AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Host",
"context": "Everything's becoming software and when we have super intelligence solving all disease it's a software problem... Everything's becoming software. The minute crisper arrived and you could edit the human genome, the human body becomes a software engineering problem. It's all just a software problem. At which point a coding model can do essentially anything in the physical world.",
"verbatim": "The minute crisper arrived and you could edit the human genome, the human body becomes a software engineering problem. It's all just a software problem. At which point a coding model can do essentially anything in the physical world.",
"conv_cues": "essentially anything",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Future",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "150+ active CRISPR clinical trials globally",
"source": "https://innovativegenomics.org/news/crispr-clinical-trials-2026/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://innovativegenomics.org/news/crispr-clinical-trials-2026/",
"expected_date": "2026-01-01",
"observed_date": "2026-01-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "≥150 active CRISPR-based gene-editing therapy trials registered globally"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Casgevy (CRISPR/Cas9) approved in 10+ jurisdictions",
"source": "https://innovativegenomics.org/news/crispr-clinical-trials-2026/ — IGI 2026 update",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://innovativegenomics.org/news/crispr-clinical-trials-2026/",
"expected_date": "2026-04-01",
"observed_date": "2026-04-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Casgevy approved in US, UK, EU, Canada, Switzerland, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-11-17",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First in vivo CRISPR therapy approved (LNP/AAV delivery)",
"notes": "In vivo delivery is the inflection point Wissner-Gross's thesis depends on — converts genome editing into a deliverable software target.",
"source": "FDA approvals tracker, CRISPR Therapeutics + Intellia + Verve pipelines",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_date": "2027-03-17",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "FDA or EMA approves first in vivo (non-ex-vivo) CRISPR therapy using LNP or viral delivery"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2027-06-06",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "AI/ML guide-RNA design tools become standard in CRISPR submissions",
"source": "Nature Biotech, FDA INDs",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_date": "2027-09-16",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "≥50% of new CRISPR INDs cite AI/ML-designed guide RNAs (p
... (truncated)