← Cockpit
243_042predictionConsumerAI-timing

Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#243 "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
50.8%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward | the focus for us is, you know, delivery of anything and everything to your home within within an hour.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243"
the focus for us is, you know, delivery of anything and everything to your home within within an hour.

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0105
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 50.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 2 pending
  1. 2026-04-30hitUber Eats expands to 7 new EU markets
    How: Uber publicly launches Eats in Czech Republic, Greece, Romania, Austria, Denmark, Finland, and Norway with sub-hour delivery commitments
    Source: PYMNTS — 'Uber Brings Food Delivery to 7 New EU Markets'conf 90%
    Notes: Expansion announced; expected to add $1B gross bookings over 3 years.
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingUber retail partner network exceeds 60,000 locations
    How: Uber reports >=60,000 retail/grocery partner locations on Eats platform (up from 50,000 in 2025)
    Source: Retail Brew + TheStreet — 'Uber Eats added more than a thousand new retailers, network of 50,000 locations' + Ace Hardware partnershipconf 70%
  3. 2026-04-15hitUber Shop For Me launches with cross-platform fulfillment
    How: Uber launches 'Shop for Me' AI feature allowing users to request goods from any store (not just on-platform), with couriers fulfilling cross-merchant orders
    Source: Fast Company — 'Uber just expanded into hotels, AI, and room service'conf 85%
  4. 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingUber delivery gross bookings cross $80B annualized run-rate
    How: Uber delivery segment gross bookings exceed $80B annualized run-rate with within-hour delivery cited as core operating metric
    Source: CNBC — 'Uber reports 20% revenue growth in fourth-quarter, but issues soft profit guidance'conf 55%
  5. 2026-12-01 → 2027-12-31pendingUber Eats delivery selection coverage >=50% of addressable market in top countries
    How: Khosrowshahi confirms in earnings call selection coverage rises from 30-40% to >=50% of addressable market in top 5 countries
    Source: TheStreet — 'Uber Eats will now deliver more than just food'conf 60%
  6. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 51%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z50.8%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 51.9% → 50.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z51.9%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 53.7% → 51.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z53.7%-2.5pp
Network propagation: 56.2% → 53.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z56.2%-3.8pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 56.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6000.050-0.057
prereq235_038
David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trialPeter Diamandis
74.0%0.6000.050-0.055
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6000.050-0.049
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6000.050-0.039
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.037

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050+0.013
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050+0.012
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.008
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050+0.008
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.006

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Linked documents (9)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.626manifoldWill I finish my library takeouts before theyre due?31%mentionspending2026-04-28
0.579manifoldWill I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?37%mentionspending2026-04-26
0.579manifoldWill I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?67%mentionspending2026-05-03
0.572manifoldWhat goals will I achieve this week?mentionspending2026-05-10
0.567manifoldWill I do something interesting this week according to me63%mentionspending2026-05-06
0.567manifoldWill I do something interesting this week according to me48%mentionspending2026-04-28
0.563manifoldWhat goals will I achieve this week?mentionspending2026-05-18
0.563manifoldWhat goals will I achieve this week?mentionspending2026-05-25
0.563manifoldWhat goals will I achieve this week?mentionspending2026-06-01

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "within 1 hour",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "the focus for us is, you know, delivery of anything and everything to your home within within an hour.",
  "verbatim": "the focus for us is, you know, delivery of anything and everything to your home within within an hour.",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Near-term focus",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Uber Eats expands to 7 new EU markets",
      "notes": "Expansion announced; expected to add $1B gross bookings over 3 years.",
      "source": "PYMNTS — 'Uber Brings Food Delivery to 7 New EU Markets'",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.pymnts.com/news/delivery/2026/uber-brings-food-delivery-to-7-new-eu-markets/",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Uber publicly launches Eats in Czech Republic, Greece, Romania, Austria, Denmark, Finland, and Norway with sub-hour delivery commitments"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Uber retail partner network exceeds 60,000 locations",
      "source": "Retail Brew + TheStreet — 'Uber Eats added more than a thousand new retailers, network of 50,000 locations' + Ace Hardware partnership",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/2026/04/10/ace-hardware-teams-up-with-uber-to-offer-on-demand-delivery",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Uber reports >=60,000 retail/grocery partner locations on Eats platform (up from 50,000 in 2025)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Uber Shop For Me launches with cross-platform fulfillment",
      "source": "Fast Company — 'Uber just expanded into hotels, AI, and room service'",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence":
... (truncated)