SEM_017predictionSemishardware

TSMC will produce over 10M wafers/month total in 2026, including ~100K/mo at 2nm and ~200K/mo at 3nm.

Predictor: TSMC (All-In Podcast analysis)

Prior probability

80.0%

Current probability

64.8%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

Resolution

in_progress

Window

2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31

Edges in / out

3 / 5

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

TSMC will produce over 10M wafers/month total in 2026, including ~100K/mo at 2nm and ~200K/mo at 3nm. | TSMC 2nm N2 mass-production ramp H2-2026

Key catalyst: TSMC 2nm N2 mass-production ramp H2-2026

Watch events: TSMC quarterly wafer-output disclosures; 2nm yield announcements

Resolution evidence

Status: in_progress

TSMC guided 3nm ramp to 130K wpm by end-2026; 2nm N2 mass production targeted H2-2026 at Fab 20 (Baoshan). Total wafer output across all nodes consistent with 10M/mo+ estimate.

Predictor: TSMC (All-In Podcast analysis)

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.500

Brier

—

Hits / Misses

0 / 0

Hit rate

—

Evidence about this node from TSMC (All-In Podcast analysis) is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: fab_construction_3y

Linked via embedding similarity 0.600

All classes →

Greenfield semiconductor fab construction within 3 years of announce

Base rate

58.0%

7/12 historical

Inside weight

—

Outside weight

—

no pull

inside 64.8% → blend 64.8% (Δ 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 64.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 2 overdue ⏱ · 2 pending

2026-01-31hitTSMC 3nm baseline at end-2025: 120K-130K wafers/month
How: Industry data confirms TSMC end-2025 3nm capacity at 120-130K wafers/month
Source: https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/04/27/news-tsmc-3nm-monthly-capacity-may-hit-180k-wafers-by-2026-up-over-40-yoy-on-ai-demand/ — 3nm baselineconf 92%
2026-02-24overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-02-28hitTSMC 2nm baseline at end-2025: 30K-40K wafers/month
How: Industry data confirms TSMC end-2025 2nm wafer input at 30-40K/month, ramping
Source: https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/08/05/news-tsmcs-2nm-node-reportedly-set-for-60k-monthly-output-in-2026-with-prices-50-above-3nm/ — 2nm baselineconf 92%
2026-04-20overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
2026-04-27hitTSMC 3nm output target raised to 180K wafers/month by EOY 2026
How: TSMC publicly confirms 3nm monthly capacity target raised from 150K to ~180K wafers by end-2026 (+40% YoY)
Source: https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/04/27/news-tsmc-3nm-monthly-capacity-may-hit-180k-wafers-by-2026-up-over-40-yoy-on-ai-demand/ — TSMC 3nm 180Kconf 95%
Notes: 180K vs SEM_017 thesis of 200K — close but slightly under thesis.
2026-06-13pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-06-30pendingTSMC 2nm priced 50% above 3nm
How: TSMC 2nm wafer ASP confirmed at >=50% premium over 3nm
Source: https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/08/05/news-tsmcs-2nm-node-reportedly-set-for-60k-monthly-output-in-2026-with-prices-50-above-3nm/ — 2nm 50% premiumconf 85%
2026-08-07pendingTSMC will produce over 10M wafers/month total in 2026, including ~100K/mo at 2nm and ~200K/mo at 3nm.
2026-12-31pendingTSMC 2nm reaches ~100K wafers/month by end-2026 (matches thesis)
How: TSMC 2nm monthly capacity ramps to >=100K wafers/month by end-2026 — direct confirmation of SEM_017 thesis
Source: https://wccftech.com/tsmc-two-2nm-plants-sold-out-for-2026/ — TSMC 2nm 100Kconf 85%
2027-06-24pendingThe frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.
2027-06-25pendingAcquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become common
2027-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingCascade: TSMC 2nm output exceeds 3nm by 2x by 2027
How: TSMC 2nm output reaches >=2x of 3nm output (5 fabs ramping) per WCCFTech roadmap
Source: https://wccftech.com/tsmc-doubles-down-on-2nm-five-fabs-ramping-at-once-output-eclipse-3nm-by-2x/ — 2nm 2x by 2027conf 55%
2028-07-20pendingSuperhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.
2030-09-27pendingMost large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 65%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z64.8%+2.0pp

Network propagation: 62.8% → 64.8%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z62.8%+4.0pp

Network propagation: 58.9% → 62.8%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z58.9%-10.0pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.596 blend=0.589 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 w_in=0.53 fab_construction_3y

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.6650500679109432,
  "kappa": 0.5,
  "base_rate": 0.58,
  "predictor": "TSMC (All-In Podcast analysis)",
  "total_llr": -0.8109302162163288,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.7948699001173678,
  "bayes_factor": "1.5:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "blend 53% inside / 46% outside (TRF=0.665, base_rate=0.580 from fab_construction_3y)",
  "inside_prior": 0.6888760348950811,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 2,
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.5,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-24",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.5,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-20",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.5344649524623397,
  "outside_weight": 0.4655350475376603,
  "posterior_prob": 0.5886495627538888,
  "posterior_logit": 0.3894047920092034,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "inside_posterior": 0.5961394068827527,
  "blended_posterior": 0.5886495627538888,
  "reference_class_id": "fab_construction_3y",
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z68.9%-1.9pp

Network propagation: 70.8% → 68.9%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z70.8%+1.9pp

reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.800 blend=0.708 w_in=0.53 fab_construction_3y

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z68.9%-1.9pp

Network propagation: 70.8% → 68.9%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z70.8%-9.2pp

reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.800 blend=0.708 w_in=0.53 fab_construction_3y

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	35.0%	0.050	0.800	-0.110
killer	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	8.0%	0.050	0.800	+0.092
killer	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	12.0%	0.050	0.800	+0.062

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis	36.1%	0.650	0.050	+0.083
prereq	247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does — Dave Blundin	40.8%	0.720	0.050	+0.083
prereq	247_055 Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of mi — Dave Blundin	49.9%	0.650	0.050	-0.055
prereq	248_033 Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compa — Dave Blundin	36.7%	0.600	0.050	+0.044
prereq	230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit — Peter Diamandis	48.0%	0.650	0.050	-0.036

Ticker exposure

32 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

ALAB AMBA ARM ASML CEVA CRWV IREN MU NBIS NVDA SITM TSM AMD NXPI ANET MRVL CSCO DELL AVGO SIEGY LNVGY AMAT QCOM ATEYY

Adverse (4)

AMAT INTC LRCX AMD

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
killer	TK09	Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	—	—
killer	TK02	AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	—
killer	TK06	China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	—

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	247_023	AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently	AI	—
prereq	242_031	Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years	Markets/Stocks	—
prereq	230_006	The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.	AI	—
prereq	247_055	Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become common	AI	—
prereq	248_033	Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.	AI	—

Linked documents (3)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.655	manifold	What will be the sum of 2026 USAMO MOHS	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-24
0.626	manifold	Will the June 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 50.0?	64%	mentions	pending	2026-06-02
0.567	edgar_8k	MOSAIC CO (MOS) (CIK 0001285785)	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-29

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": ">10M wafers/mo",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Analyst",
  "context": "TSMC global capacity projection 2026: >10M wafers/mo across all nodes, dominated by 3nm (200K) and 2nm (100K) at leading edge.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "conv_cues": "expected to produce; analyst consensus",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "TSMC 3nm baseline at end-2025: 120K-130K wafers/month",
      "source": "https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/04/27/news-tsmc-3nm-monthly-capacity-may-hit-180k-wafers-by-2026-up-over-40-yoy-on-ai-demand/ — 3nm baseline",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "source_url": "https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/04/27/news-tsmc-3nm-monthly-capacity-may-hit-180k-wafers-by-2026-up-over-40-yoy-on-ai-demand/",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Industry data confirms TSMC end-2025 3nm capacity at 120-130K wafers/month"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-24",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "TSMC 2nm baseline at end-2025: 30K-40K wafers/month",
      "source": "https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/08/05/news-tsmcs-2nm-node-reportedly-set-for-60k-monthly-output-in-2026-with-prices-50-above-3nm/ — 2nm baseline",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "source_url": "https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/08/05/news-tsmcs-2nm-node-reportedly-set-for-60k-monthly-output-in-2026-with-prices-50-above-3nm/",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-28",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-28",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Industry data confirms TSMC end-2025 2nm wafer input at 30-40K/month, ramping"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-20",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "TSMC 3nm output target raised to 180K wafers/month by EOY 2026",
      "notes": "180K vs SEM_017 thesis of 200K — close but slightly under thesis.",
      "source": "https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/04/27/news-tsmc-3nm-monthly-capacity-may-hit-180k-wafers-by-2026-up-over-40-yoy-on-ai-demand/ — TSMC 3nm 180K",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/04/27/news-tsmc-3nm-monthly-capacity-may-hit-180k-wafers-by-2026-up-over-40-yoy-on-ai-demand/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-27",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-27",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "TSMC publicly confirms 3nm monthly capacity target raised from 150K to ~180K wafers by end-2026 (+40% YoY)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-13",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "TSMC 2nm priced 50% above 3nm",
      "source": "https://www.trendfo
... (truncated)