Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.

Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. | NVDA Q4-FY26 earnings + Rubin launch

Key catalyst: NVDA Q4-FY26 earnings + Rubin launch

Watch events: NVDA 12-month price; MS price-target revisions; Rubin launch milestones

NVDA Q3 FY26 revenue $57B (+66% YoY Data Center). MS thesis rests on Rubin product cycle sustaining premium margins.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (2)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$250 NVDA PT",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Analyst",
  "context": "MS Overweight rating on Nvidia with $250 price target (32% upside) justified by hyperscaler demand and Data Center 66% YoY growth.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "conv_cues": "aggressive price target",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Morgan Stanley raises NVDA price target from $235 to $250",
      "notes": "HIT — MS Joseph Moore raised target from $235 to $250 in December 2025.",
      "source": "TipRanks / The Fly — MS NVDA target raised to $250",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/nvidia-price-target-raised-to-250-from-235-at-morgan-stanley-thefly",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-14",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-04-30",
        "from": "2025-12-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore raises NVDA price target to $250 with Overweight rating"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "MS Q4 FY26 earnings preview validates Rubin transition thesis",
      "notes": "NVDA reports Q4 FY26 in late February 2026.",
      "source": "Morgan Stanley research / TheStreet / Yahoo Finance coverage",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-sets-bold-price-183300090.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-26",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Morgan Stanley publishes NVDA Q4 FY26 earnings preview citing Rubin transition tailwind and reaffirming $250 target"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NVDA trades through $250 within 12-month target window",
      "notes": "Original prediction implies ~$190 base price; $250 = 32% upside. Tracks NVDA close vs $250 threshold.",
      "source": "Yahoo Finance NVDA historical price data",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA",
      
... (truncated)