Figure's scale-up path: working in 1 home, then 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,000, 10 million homes on a super-exponential curve.

Figure's scale-up path: working in 1 home, then 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,000, 10 million homes on a super-exponential curve. | It's going to work well at 10 homes. It's going to work well at 100. It's going to work well at a thousand. It's gonna be 10,000. It's going to be 100,000. It's gonna be a 10 million. So, I think it's going to be like um uh super exponential growth curve.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

It's going to work well at 10 homes. It's going to work well at 100. It's going to work well at a thousand. It's gonna be 10,000. It's going to be 100,000. It's gonna be a 10 million. So, I think it's going to be like um uh super exponential growth curve.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1 -> 10 -> 100 -> 1k -> 10k -> 100k -> 10M homes",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "It's gonna be 10,000. It's going to be 100,000. It's gonna be a 10 million. So, I think it's going to be like um uh super exponential growth curve.",
  "verbatim": "It's going to work well at 10 homes. It's going to work well at 100. It's going to work well at a thousand. It's gonna be 10,000. It's going to be 100,000. It's gonna be a 10 million. So, I think it's going to be like um uh super exponential growth curve.",
  "conv_cues": "I think; going to be",
  "direction": "UP",
  "timeframe": "future exponential ramp",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure 03 monthly shipments cross 500 units",
      "source": "Figure AI news 'Ramping Figure 03 Production' April 2026 (240/month) + 'shipments doubling monthly' trajectory",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.theresarobotforthat.com/figure-03-shipments-doubling-every-month/",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure AI public announcement or BotQ production update reporting >=500 units shipped in a single calendar month; tracked via figure.ai/news + RoboticsAndAutomation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-07",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First public consumer (non-partner) home pilot deployment of Figure 03",
      "source": "Figure 03 review noting late 2026 earliest consumer availability; partner pilots first",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://blog.robozaps.com/b/figure-03-review",
      "expected_date": "2027-01-30",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure announces named retail customer or paying household pilot (not employee/partner alpha); independently verifiable via press release or third-party reporting"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Helix AI v2 or successor enables generalized household task transfer (multi-home)",
      "source": "Helix AI watch-and-learn architecture from Figure 03 launch",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://www.figure.ai/news/introducing-figure-03",
      "expected_date": "2027-04-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-08-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure AI publishes Helix v2 capability paper or video demo showing same robot performing tasks in >=5 distinct unfamiliar homes without retraining"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure cumulative installed base passes 1,000 homes/sites",
      "source": "Figure scale-up trajectory; super-exponential thesis (1, 10, 100, 1000)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date"
... (truncated)