Personal garages at home will disappear

Personal garages at home will disappear | I think the idea of a garage, a personal garage in your home, goes away. So, start thinking about what you're going to do with your garage space.

I think the idea of a garage, a personal garage in your home, goes away. So, start thinking about what you're going to do with your garage space.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "the idea of a garage, a personal garage in your home, goes away",
  "verbatim": "I think the idea of a garage, a personal garage in your home, goes away. So, start thinking about what you're going to do with your garage space.",
  "conv_cues": "goes away",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Robotaxi market reaches scale in 5+ US cities (2,500+ Waymo fleet)",
      "notes": "HIT — geographic spread is required for residential garage substitution to begin.",
      "source": "CNBC — Waymo, Zoox and Tesla drive 2025 robotaxi boom",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/16/waymo-amazon-zoox-tesla-robotaxi-expansion.html",
      "expected_date": "2025-11-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-11-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Waymo + Tesla + Zoox combined fleet exceeds 3,000 robotaxis in commercial paid service across at least 5 US metro areas."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Waymo paid rides surpass 20M cumulative + 250K/week run-rate (Dec 2025)",
      "notes": "HIT — direct precondition for personal garages becoming optional. AV ride volume is the substitution mechanism.",
      "source": "The Driverless Digest — Waymo's 2025 Year in Review",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.thedriverlessdigest.com/p/waymos-2025-year-in-review-the-year",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Waymo publicly reports cumulative paid trips above 20 million and weekly run-rate above 250,000 across operating cities, demonstrating accelerating AV displacement of personal-vehicle trips."
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First major US homebuilder eliminates 2-car garage as standard in new SKUs",
      "notes": "Direct construction-side evidence that the 'garage goes away' thesis is being capi
... (truncated)