← Cockpit
230_031predictionAIAI-timing

We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
43.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. | And we argue in this chapter, the lockin, that we're now in a phase of of history, of future history, where this is just going to start to happen over and over again across different fields where intelligence shifts from an artisal craft to a utility that just flows.

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230"
And we argue in this chapter, the lockin, that we're now in a phase of of history, of future history, where this is just going to start to happen over and over again across different fields where intelligence shifts from an artisal craft to a utility that just flows.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 43.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2024-05-08hitAlphaFold 3 released expanding to protein-ligand and protein-nucleic acid complexes
    How: Google DeepMind + Isomorphic Labs publish AlphaFold 3 expanding predictions to protein-ligand, protein-nucleic acid, and protein-protein complexes
    Source: https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/products/google-deepmind-isomorphic-alphafold-3-ai-model/conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — first instance of AlphaFold-pattern domain extension; foundation for the 'domain collapse' thesis.
  2. 2025-12-31hit≥40% of new PDB entries 2024-2025 derived from AI prediction
    How: PDB / Frontiers in AI publication reports ~40% of new structures deposited 2024-2025 obtained via AI methods
    Source: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/artificial-intelligence/articles/10.3389/frai.2026.1739303/fullconf 95%
    Notes: HIT — quantifies the 'domain collapse' transition in structural biology.
  3. 2026-01-01 → 2027-12-31pending≥2 non-biology fields hit AlphaFold-class accuracy via foundation model
    How: Materials science (e.g. MatterGen / GNoME), weather prediction (GraphCast / Pangu), or chemistry (MACE-OFF / OMat) publishes near-experimental-accuracy result that displaces traditional first-principles methods
    Source: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/01/260128075336.htm — AI cracks complex patterns 1000x fasterconf 85%
    Notes: Direct test of 'AlphaFold pattern repeats across fields'.
  4. 2027-06-01 → 2030-11-30pending≥1 non-biology AI scientific tool wins major prize (Breakthrough / Turing / similar)
    How: AI tool in materials, chemistry, weather, or particle physics receives Breakthrough Prize / Turing Award / similar top-tier scientific recognition
    Source: Major prize announcementsconf 40%
    Notes: Cascade — major recognition signal that intelligence has 'shifted from artisanal craft to a utility' in another field.
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2030-11-30pending≥3 fields where AI prediction is now the default first-pass methodology
    How: ≥3 scientific fields publish methodology guidelines stating an AI predictor (DeepMind/Microsoft/etc.) is the recommended first-pass tool before experimental work
    Source: Major scientific society guidelinesconf 55%
    Notes: Cascade — confirms prediction's 'utility that just flows' framing.
  6. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 43%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z43.5%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 44.8% → 43.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z44.8%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 46.8% → 44.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.8%-3.2pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5000.050-0.057
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5000.050-0.050
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5000.050-0.042
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.5000.050-0.037
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.500-0.025

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.051
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.045
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.038
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.025
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.024

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.632arxivDirichlet walls and the end of timementionspending2026-06-03
0.629arxivCausal Modeling of Selection in Evolutionmentionspending2026-06-04
0.625arxivTopological texture analysis of microscopy images of dynamic casein gelation and its relation to rheological propertiesmentionspending2026-06-01
0.617arxivDomain Incremental Learning for Pandemic-Resilient Chest X-Ray Analysismentionspending2026-05-18
0.608arxivBeyond Explained Variance: A Cautionary Tale of PCAmentionspending2026-05-13
0.602github_releasegoogle-deepmind/alphafold v2.1.1mentionspending2021-11-05
0.600arxivThe Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Markov Boundary for Tabular Predictionmentionspending2026-05-28
0.599github_releasegoogle-deepmind/alphafold v2.2.3mentionspending2022-08-25
0.578arxivNon-linear evolution of five-dimensional black strings in effective field theorymentionspending2026-06-03
0.573github_releasefacebookresearch/balance 0.20.0mentionspending2026-04-26

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "we're now in a phase of of history, of future history, where this is just going to start to happen over and over again across different fields where intelligence shifts from an artisal craft to a utility that just flows.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "And we argue in this chapter, the lockin, that we're now in a phase of of history, of future history, where this is just going to start to happen over and over again across different fields where intelligence shifts from an artisal craft to a utility that just flows.",
  "conv_cues": "we argue; going to start to happen over and over",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "now onwards",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AlphaFold 3 released expanding to protein-ligand and protein-nucleic acid complexes",
      "notes": "HIT — first instance of AlphaFold-pattern domain extension; foundation for the 'domain collapse' thesis.",
      "source": "https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/products/google-deepmind-isomorphic-alphafold-3-ai-model/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/products/google-deepmind-isomorphic-alphafold-3-ai-model/",
      "expected_date": "2024-05-08",
      "observed_date": "2024-05-08",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Google DeepMind + Isomorphic Labs publish AlphaFold 3 expanding predictions to protein-ligand, protein-nucleic acid, and protein-protein complexes"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "≥40% of new PDB entries 2024-2025 derived from AI prediction",
      "notes": "HIT — quantifies the 'domain collapse' transition in structural biology.",
      "source": "https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/artificial-intelligence/articles/10.3389/frai.2026.1739303/full",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/artificial-intelligence/articles/10.3389/frai.2026.1739303/full",
      "expected_date": "2025-07-02",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2025-12-31",
        "from": "2025-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "PDB / Frontiers in AI publication reports ~40% of new structures deposited 2024-2025 obtained via AI methods"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
 
... (truncated)