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245_006predictionBiotech/Longevitysynbio

Colossal will productionize species development via biobanking, synthetic biology, automation, AI, computer vision and artificial wombs

Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
41.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2030-12-31
Edges in / out
2 / 0
Tickers exposed
24

Prediction text

Colossal will productionize species development via biobanking, synthetic biology, automation, AI, computer vision and artificial wombs | our vision is using biioanking using synthetic biology using automation and and uh robotic process automation with assistance from AI and computer vision uh and artificial wombs we could productionize species development.

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)"
our vision is using biioanking using synthetic biology using automation and and uh robotic process automation with assistance from AI and computer vision uh and artificial wombs we could productionize species development.

Predictor: Ben Lamm

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0043
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

2 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-04-30
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 41.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 8 pending
  1. 2026-04-30hitBluebuck added as 6th de-extinction species — biobanking + synthetic biology pipeline scaling
    How: Public announcement of bluebuck addition with described workflow steps (biobanking, edit, surrogate)
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
  2. 2026-09-01 → 2026-12-31pendingMammoth embryos ready for elephant implantation by end of 2026 (25 of ~85 genes edited)
    How: Colossal public update confirming embryo readiness with documented multiplex-edit count >=25 mammoth genes
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
  3. 2027-01-21pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingColossal's de-extinction portfolio reaches 8+ named species (mammoth, dire wolf, dodo, thylacine, moa, bluebuck, +2)
    How: Colossal public communications list >=8 named target species under active development
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 60%
  5. 2027-10-15pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  6. 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingColossal publishes first artificial-womb feasibility study for elephant-class embryos
    How: Peer-reviewed paper or formal Colossal disclosure of artificial-womb maturation milestone for any large-mammal embryo
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 30%
  7. 2027-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFirst mammoth calf born to elephant surrogate (or via artificial womb)
    How: Birth announcement of first cold-adapted Asian-elephant/mammoth-edited offspring with viable post-natal vital signs
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
  8. 2027-06-01 → 2029-03-31pendingComputer-vision-based embryo selection deployed at scale (>1000 embryos screened/year)
    How: Colossal or partner publication describing automated CV pipeline screening >=1000 embryos annually
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 40%
  9. 2028-07-07pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 41%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z41.0%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 42.4% → 41.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z42.4%-2.6pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 42.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK13
Biotech/Synbio Safety Event
15.0%0.0500.450-0.020
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.450-0.008

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

24 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (19)

ABCLNTLASDGRPACBRXRXRLAYDNATXGTWSTABSICRSPILMNMDTABTAZNBNTXGEHCGOOGLSMMNY

Adverse (4)

NVOFMSDVAPFE

Prerequisites (2)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK13Biotech/Synbio Safety Event
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.656arxivAgentic-J: An AI Agent for Biological Microscopy Image Analysismentionspending2026-06-01

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "Artificial wombs don't currently work",
  "context": "our vision is using biioanking using synthetic biology using automation and and uh robotic process automation with assistance from AI and computer vision uh and artificial wombs we could productionize species development.",
  "verbatim": "our vision is using biioanking using synthetic biology using automation and and uh robotic process automation with assistance from AI and computer vision uh and artificial wombs we could productionize species development.",
  "conv_cues": "our vision; could productionize",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Bluebuck added as 6th de-extinction species — biobanking + synthetic biology pipeline scaling",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/colossal-biosciences-species-extinction-bluebuck",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public announcement of bluebuck addition with described workflow steps (biobanking, edit, surrogate)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Mammoth embryos ready for elephant implantation by end of 2026 (25 of ~85 genes edited)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.denofgeek.com/culture/colossal-woolly-mammoth-on-track-2028-de-extinction-evolves/",
      "expected_date": "2026-10-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal public update confirming embryo readiness with documented multiplex-edit count >=25 mammoth genes"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-01-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal's de-extinction portfolio reaches 8+ named species (mammoth, dire wolf, dodo, thylacine, moa, bluebuck, +2)",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal public communications list >=8 named target species under active development"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-10-15",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal publishes first artificial-womb feasibility study for elephant-class embryos",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.3,
      "expected_date": "2028-01-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Peer-reviewed paper or formal Colossal disclosure of artificial-womb maturation milestone for any large-mammal embryo"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      
... (truncated)